snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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With an entrenched La Niña this stout, you probably are not going to see any sustained +PNA. It’s going to keep defaulting back to RNA/-PNA
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The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block .
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Go back to work. There’s people pooping in the streets there for heaven’s sake .
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[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .
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Twitter had it being the Blizzard of 96 last week
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Twitter is hilarious right now. You have weenies in DC and Philly saying exactly that…”It’s going to bomb out and pull down its own cold air from aloft” “It’s too early to say it’s not going to be snow it could make it’s own cold” LMFAOOOO!! [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022112000&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= .
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This high solar flux isn’t as bad as 2001, so I wouldn’t expect that kind of carnage .
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It’s pretty ugly as depicted. The EPO floodgates would be wide open .
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Normal is the new torch lol Some people aren’t happy unless it’s 10+ degrees below normal .
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Those charts aren’t accurate and almost always wrong. If you look at the actual forcing (VP) it’s in phase 6 that’s why the PAC goes to garbage .
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Ok JB [emoji23][emoji23] .
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The models are like a pendulum….swinging back and forth between rain and rain….
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That tweet chain actually mentioned the possible storm after Thanksgiving and how it ties in with the Niña forcing but good try
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It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again:
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@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this:
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@bluewave @donsutherland1
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The latest GFS was a cave towards the Euro
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I wonder if the recent change to +AO/+NAO is related to the change in tropical forcing and west PAC warm pool (Ninas) we discussed earlier today with those super warm SSTs north of Australia the last several years
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Those super (record) warm SSTs north of Australia is going to have a really profound effect on the global heat budget. The MJO/tropical forcing is going to want to continue to redevelop over and over in phases 4-6, in a positive feedback loop, basically a standing wave. The La Niña base state is only serving to re-enforce that even more
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Those very warm waters north of Australia are concerning and here’s why:
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Pray for a cold/snowy December. During a Niña, when December is warmer than normal with below average snow it bodes very, very poorly for the rest of winter
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And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)
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It’s going to get mild the tail end of this month, then the question becomes what happens after this? I’ll believe -NAO/-AO blocking when it moves forward in time and doesn’t stay in the long range. We’ll see
