snowman19

Yep, our trace so far is actually better than Philly, Baltimore and DC. They have zero and yea Boston is just barely 1 inch for the season .

I remember January of 2011 when JB pissed the weenies off because he forecasted that all the blocking was going to break down completely by February and not come back and winter was over. Boy did he get hate for that. That was probably the only time in his entire life that he didn’t forecast cold and snow and he turned out to be right. He was one of only a couple who called that correctly. Everyone else kept saying the blocking was coming back in February and March .

The EPS took a fairly sizable jump to the west. With a +NAO you need a strong 50-50 low or it’s going to cut .

It lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal .

When the GFS isn’t suppressed at this range, it’s normally a bad sign. Typically it’s way south and east then trends towards the other models in our big snowstorms. Guess we’ll see .

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Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex .

Hi [emoji846] .

Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city

Paul Roundy said he believes MJO phases 5-8 will be dominant this winter

Here is some great info with graphics on east-based -NAO’s vs west-based -NAO’s

Right, for now it is not able to couple with the troposphere, which is good for cold. The strengthening SPV is fitting with the current +QBO however

@Bluewave The QBO finally has gone back to normal 6 years after the super El Niño. Crazy how that event completely altered normal QBO progressions

Yes.

It would mitigate the sometime suppressive effects of strong -NAO yes .

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA

I honestly did not understand why some people thought a huge +PNA was going to pop like 14-15. First off, we have a moderate basin wide La Niña, we have a strong -PDO and the semi permanent Niña driven tropical convective forcing has been over the eastern IO and the Maritime Continent for months now. The -IOD only served to reinforce the background Niña state. This is why the models are dumping the -PNA trough in the west. -PNA can still work here if you have -EPO/-NAO/-AO to go along with it, but you are going to be fighting the SE ridge. We may see RNA for a very good chunk of December

It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles

The PNA was never supposed to be favorable

Just keep in mind that MJO 8 in December, during a La Niña features a stout -PNA. Also features -AO/-NAO and -EPO/-WPO, which is good, but there probably will be troughing over the west coast