snowman19

He comes off as pompous but he’s right here. February looks very, very ugly. And if a “good” look does show up again, it’s not going to immediately get cold. That pattern is going to flood everything with PAC air and the cold would have to build back up, it would probably be early March at that point, and we begin fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. I think the pattern probably gets “good” by early March, but how fast can it get cold again after the PAC onslaught will be the issue. Maybe we squeeze something out snow wise then to avoid a total shutout….

@40/70 Benchmark Seems like a good call so far with the canonical La Niña February in your winter forecast. The overnight GEFS are real ugly, going with a flat Aleutian ridge by 2/1. That’ll do a good job of flooding the pattern with PAC maritime air. It’s also absolutely tanking the PNA and dumping a full latitude trough out west. That’s a lights out look for everyone south of New England….

It’s already not as bad as 01-02 because it actually got cold the last week of December, even though it only lasted 4 days. That winter never got cold. As far as not getting snow, yea it’s comparable to 01-02 so far, but that winter was dry, this one wants to rain and produce thunderstorms in the middle of January

The GEFS just got even uglier (if that’s possible) by 2/1. It has a flat Aleutian ridge and a -PNA trough digging down into Baja. If that’s correct it’s a lights out look, even without the SE ridge. As depicted, that would completely flood Canada and the CONUS with Pacific Maritime air, arctic completely cutoff. The PAC is a total cluster you know what on that run

Larry has been real bad this entire winter. He’s been saying winter is going to lock into the east and we’re going to have a locked in +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern since November. He was calling for a 95-96 type winter. Even is recently as 2 days ago he was saying the east was going to flip to deep winter and get cold and snowy. He won’t budge either, real stubborn, this is the 3rd month in a row he’s been wrong

Anytime you have a +NAO along with a -PNA/SE ridge pattern you are going to have a very high risk of cutters and inland runners. You may be able to thread the needle with a transient strong 50/50 low to act as a pseudo block and create confluence in that setup, but it takes some good luck and timing

Yea. Textbook La Niña pattern to start February. The upcoming eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing supports it too. That look has the typical February tropical convective forcing you normally see in Nina’s

That may start as some sleet but I agree, that probably is mostly a rain event. The midlevels torch very quickly. If there was a legit 50/50 low or a -NAO that would be a totally different story

That met actually did an amazing job to date. He said this was going to be a total dud winter back in mid-November and he was ignored. No one believed it. He stuck to his guns the entire time and here we are. When everyone was hyping the west-based -NAO and -AO in December he predicted we would end up well below average for snow and the cold would not last. A real impressive job to this point IMO. He thinks the end of this month and February go canonical Niña and the warmth and snow drought continue. Guess we shall see

The thing I don’t expect to change is the SE ridge/WAR. @Bluewave has shown that all the models consistently underestimate it and weaken it in the long range only to correct much stronger as we move closer in time. It happens over and over again. This is been going on for years now. I would expect this to be no different given those blazing SSTs off the east coast, there is a positive feedback loop

But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut

And the NAO is positive as hell this time, unlike December when it tamed what would have been a massive RNA/SE ridge torch, this time, there’s nothing to stop it

I’m sure no one is surprised but the EPS caved to the GEFS. Completely tanks the PNA, dumps a full latitude trough in the west and pumps the SE ridge the end of this month into early February

+NAO and the SE ridge/WAR flexing, that’s all you need to see. These storms are going to continue to cut and inland run. Nothing to stop it. The GEFS probably has the right idea with an RNA trough in the west, especially in the final days of this month and the beginning of February

Say canonical La Niña without saying canonical La Niña: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

Not yet because of the Nino like PAC jet extension. Once it retracts and the MJO (Phases 3-6) convection starts constructively interfering with the La Niña come the start of February you should see a climo canonical Niña pattern take over

The GEFS may be rushing it a bit but I think by early February we go RNA/SE ridge. There’s really nothing to stop it. If there’s no -NAO block, we are in trouble

We see you how you have been telling us about this good pattern since November. Maybe it will actually happen come February? Or are you thinking March?

If anyone doubts that La Niña is going to have a major influence on February, look no further. One of the most negative MEI’s in history for December, indicating a very well coupled Niña

100%. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low. SE ridge, RNA. Cutter/inland runner city. I don’t really care what JB and the other weenie mets say, that is not an east coast snowstorm pattern

Yep. The -PNA correction is next. We’ve seen this movie before

And it’s going to happen again. The WAR/SE ridge is going to trend much stronger as we get closer and so is the RNA. You can see the -PNA on the models by the tail end of the month/start of February. Pretty clear at this point we are going to go climo canonical La Niña February as the forcing moves to the IO and Maritime Continent. MJO phases 3-6 and it constructively interferes with the La Niña

Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it

In a canonical La Niña February (-PNA/RNA, Aleutian ridge, SE ridge) pattern, you would need a west-based -NAO block with a 50/50 low to produce in the metro area

Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east