Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,338

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….
  2. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event
  3. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust. The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November
  4. snowman19
    I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC
  5. snowman19
    Sea level anomalies vs 1997….wow Sea level heights…this is a monster:
  6. snowman19
    Agreed.
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB
  9. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark My apologies for yesterday. My response was uncalled for
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
  13. snowman19
    Is that supposed to be a racist comment? Seasoned mets who don’t speak English from other countries are stupid and aren’t qualified to comment in their own language? Their posts are useless because they aren’t from here? Horrible, insensitive/bigoted post from you. This El Niño is extremely well coupled: “We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.” https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  14. snowman19
    “40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    I’m starting to think the CFS isn’t overdone with the peak anymore. The way this is going, a traditional ONI peak of +4C and a RONI peak of +3.5C would not surprise me. I also think we have an MEI of +2 come August based on how strong the ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) is becoming Every model has a monster come November/December
  18. snowman19
    FWIW here is the new JMA El Niño forecast….same as all the other models this month….showing a historic event
  19. snowman19
    We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface
  20. snowman19
  21. snowman19
    The new EURO SEAS5 continues with a strong +IOD developing. Given all the other current antecedent conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere, there is going to be no limit to how much this Niño strengthens and couples from here on out. It would not surprise me if the MEI reaches or surpasses +2 come August….
  22. snowman19
    Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44
  23. snowman19
    We are about to catch up to and surpass 1997 in the eastern ENSO regions:
  24. snowman19
    @Lakepaste25
  25. snowman19
    The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….
×
×
  • Create New...