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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    My guess is that the EURO’s July update on Sunday is also off the charts @Stormchaserchuck1 The equatorial subsurface in the EPAC is ridiculous
  2. snowman19
    The WPAC is already extremely active with TC’s for sure, but it looks like the EPAC is about to explode with TC’s. In addition to the trade wind reversal and MJO activity, this is going to cause relentless WWBs/westerlies in the weeks and months to come…and with another huge DWKW getting ready to load up, there is no more doubt at this point, this El Niño is going historic ^ “As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal. By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic.”
  3. snowman19
    ^ “The timing of the last downwelling wave in the loop in 1998 makes that event stronger subsurface, but not across much of the surface. The present event will also grow its own oceanic Kelvin wave response over the next few weeks, thereby probably catching up to the subsurface signal.”
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2072662703483584797?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw ^ “The east Pacific subsurface is now a little behind 1997 at the same time in terms of temperature anomaly amplitude, and the 29 degree isotherm is not as far east. But there is a 30C isotherm this year, and the 28 degree isotherm is farther east than in 1997. Strong recent westerlies and westerlies over the next couple of weeks will continue to advance conditions. The different timings between 1997 subseasonal signals and those this year may explain some of the differences.”
  6. snowman19
    No coincidence that we saw the twin/triplet tropical cyclones back in April with this super El Niño. A whole parade of them are expected to form this month, keeping the WWBs/westerlies going in their wake as far as the eye can see….
  7. snowman19
    ^ “El Niño continues to mature, with ongoing and persistent westerly wind anomalies across the Central Pacific. It looks like trades will slacken over the East Pacific in the next couple weeks, allowing warmth to continue propagating east. This is a rather east-based event so far, with Niño 1+2 up over 3.5C already! Models continue to show an impressive peak, with even the relative index (RONI) from CFS forecast to peak over 3C.” Up to +2.3C: Massive WWB in progress:
  8. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS
  9. snowman19
    NOAA has raised the scale again:
  10. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2071636498290458888?s=20 Back up to +2.25C:
  11. snowman19
    Their argument was for a full scale turnaround to deep winter; arctic cold and snowstorms lasting for months after the rapid El Niño weakening began, not for the single anomalous blizzard and the single anomalous arctic cold snap, both in 2016. There was never a full scale turnaround in 1998 (JB) or in 2016 fDT, JB) @JBG 2006-07 wasn’t a super El Niño. Huge difference
  12. snowman19
    One thing I’m very, very confident in as far as winter, is a much warmer than normal to “torch” December this year because of what myself, @GaWx and you already discussed….the very strong correlation over the last 46 years (since 1980) of +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers being a slam dunk signal for warmth…literally 6 out of the last 6 were warm….
  13. snowman19
    I absolutely believe that we break the 1982-83 all time RONI record and also the traditional ONI record. This thing is a monster. I fully expect the new model runs for July to get stronger with the peak
  14. snowman19
    So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters. Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail
  15. snowman19
    If my guess is correct that changes come fall once the warm pool gets pushed way east (30C isotherm to 120E) from all the big WWBs/westerlies we are continuing to see this summer and the MC convection gets suppressed/subsidence from the +IOD forcing
  16. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @LakePaste25 @bluewave @donsutherland1 @raindancewx @BlizzardWx @Isotherm @roardog @jbenedet @csnavywx @Stormchaserchuck1 Nino region 1+2: 20°C Isotherm: the 20°C layer that separates the colder waters from the warmer ones in the deep-sea profile (up to 500 meters depth) where #ElNiño develops. Over the last 3 months, that layer has been becoming almost horizontal (a sign of an intense event). The slope of the thermocline today is comparable to the one observed at a similar time in 1997. This can be seen in the measurements of how deeply it is submerged compared to its normal values at 95°W (which is the eastern boundary of the TAO buoys that measure the temperatures of the first 500 meters of ocean depth and the gateway to warming in the Niño 1+2 Region or where we measure #ElNiñoCostero). Currently, it is about 50 meters below its usual position. It is observed as it appeared in 1997 and exceeding in depth all intermediate #ElNiño events. Two other relevant observations: the first is the surface displacement of the warmest waters of the equatorial Pacific, which at the start of the animation were in the western basin and today are moving through the central Pacific (see movements of the 29°C and 30°C isotherms at the surface). The second: a new warm Kelvin Wave forming embedded within the far western end of the large subsurface warm water anomaly under 170°W. In the animation, I have slowed down the speed of the last frames so that it can be appreciated how the mass of warm water sinks in the "tail" of the larger warm mass. There is the warm Kelvin Wave or downwelling wave. Currently, the continuous sinking of the 20°C isotherm has already produced an anomaly of +8°C at the eastern end (near South America) of the temperature profile. In 1997 we reached values between +11°C and +12°C. Soon we will see a 9°C anomaly appear within the +8°C one. This is the highest heat content in June between 180° and 100°W since the +2.25°C of June 1997. To date, we are at approximately +2.10°C. https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2069873336973242553?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  17. snowman19
    Not to take anything away from the Nino region SSTs, in particular in regions 3.4 and 1+2, which have been breaking records for warmth for weeks now, the subsurface is just blazing and still warming. Once these transiting (new) DWKWs reach the EPAC and augment what’s there now, subsurface anomalies reaching +12C in the next couple of months would not surprise me. The thermocline in the EPAC continues to deepen dramatically from the full trade wind reversal and the nonstop WWBs/westerlies Thermocline:
  18. snowman19
    Big amplified MJO wave push into phase 7 come early next month. This is in addition to the expected explosion of typhoons in the PAC. No doubt yet another huge WWB and subsequent DWKW is coming. +IOD expected to pop come mid-July. More warming to come. Increasing confidence that we are into a super El Niño by the time met fall starts (9/1)
  19. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 @jbenedet Very strong coupling now (ocean-atmosphere/Bjerknes feedback) showing up….the ERWs (equatorial rossby waves) are constructively interfering with El Niño. Also, classic Nino standing wave convection/-OLR, strong westerlies and consistent -SOI
  20. snowman19
    No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI
  21. snowman19
    2009-10 is not even remotely close to being an analog. It’s actually the worst “analog” known to man for this event, I don’t know why you continue to insist that it is
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    The ++PMM continues to get stronger @donsutherland1
  24. snowman19
    In addition to the WWBs/westerlies we have been seeing since April, there has been a complete trade wind reversal in the equatorial PAC, at the surface and aloft, something you only see in the strongest El Niños
  25. snowman19
    I see the usual delusional weenie suspects are peddling the wishcasted fantasy that this is going to somehow magically become a full blown Modoki. Same clowns, same circus. Every year like clockwork, you can set your watch to it with them. Soon, the 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15 “analogs” will be flying……..
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