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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    If this is correct, we would smash the current RONI record (1982-83) by an entire degree. It would also smash the traditional ONI record…. EDIT BY LEON:
  3. snowman19
    ^ “I have a feeling after this upcoming WWB, we're going to see the atmosphere-ocean system in a very classic-looking El Niño state. Increased easterly anomalies across the Indian Ocean will probably also shift things to a more +IOD state. EPS weeklies have an extremely classic-looking El Niño standing wave setting up, with rising motion across the East/Central Pacific and sinking air across the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Also, the EPS weeklies show above-normal westerly shear across the Atlantic for the entire 6-week forecast. Even brief Kelvin waves/MJO passages don't really seem to break that. The windows for Atlantic tropical development this year may be few and far between.”
  4. snowman19
    How do you explain the +AAM, -SOI, convective (low frequency) standing wave, WWBs/westerlies, raging STJ? Those are all blatant Nino atmospheric coupling responses
  5. snowman19
    Massive +AAM spike coming and an El Nino standing wave is developing. It’s absolutely coupling (ocean-atmosphere) and coupling strongly Per Paul Roundy we are about to pull ahead of 1997
  6. snowman19
    “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.”
  7. snowman19
    “Southern Oscillation Index is the most negative it has been with the current #ElNiño event. The subsurface warmth will continue to surface taking the SOI even more negative in time. This is the ocean/atmospheric coupling that is necessary. This is why it was important to recognize that El Niño impacts (not equal or the same everywhere) were going to occur much sooner than the "fall/winter narrative"
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    Latest SOI: -31.69
  11. snowman19
    Yea, we normally see a raging STJ during a La Niña. Looks very Niña like!! Lol
  12. snowman19
    Yep. El Nino standing wave. This upcoming WWB and follow up DWKW is going to be monstrous. And in other news, the models are getting more aggressive with a strong +IOD forming by this fall Wow, look at the WWB animation…
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    Even the new RONI projections are up to +3C now: ^ “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.” Check out this animated thermocline progression over the last month…..just wow:
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
    The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
  17. snowman19
    @stormchaserchuck1 It not only looks like 1997, the far eastern subsurface is actually warmer than 1997 was now:
  18. snowman19
    That KW is a monster
  19. snowman19
    Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997
  20. snowman19
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
    CPC also making comparisons to 1997 now:
  23. snowman19
    Here comes the next WWB round of surface and subsurface warming and strengthening. This is going to spark off another DWKW. Think the June model runs go wild with the peak. And in other news, the ++PMM continues to rage
  24. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Here is an English translation of this disco on the super Nino/+IOD effects: “Look, as I indicated in my pinned tweet's prediction, the analogs are supporting it. The occurrence of very strong El Niño conditions simultaneously with a positive IOD tends to lead to a shift of the tropical convective core along the ITCZ toward the eastern-central Pacific; in this process, deep convection over the Maritime Continent is suppressed. I drew the ITCZ areas on the data. This structure weakens and fragments the Walker circulation, disrupts zonal (east-west) continuity, and particularly supports the formation of anomalous upper-level divergence over the eastern Pacific basin. The resulting overturning circulation anomalies strengthen convection in the equatorial Pacific while increasing subsidence-induced drying conditions in the Maritime Continent region around Indonesia and its surroundings. It will significantly affect the mid-latitudes through MJO/BSIO and teleconnections”
  25. snowman19
    ^ Regarding region 1+2: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997”
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