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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    That Webb post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  4. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  5. snowman19
    Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C
  6. snowman19
    To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997
  7. snowman19
    “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”
  8. snowman19
    And this will spawn another DWKW
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“
  11. snowman19
    Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event will have any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI
  12. snowman19
    If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI
  13. snowman19
    The subsurface continues to boil…. The cold-biased CDAS for daily Nino 3.4 SSTs:
  14. snowman19
    Your point? All he did was post the model run
  15. snowman19
    New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
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  18. snowman19
    Modeling starting to show an ERW coupling with the MJO induced WWB at the end of this month as it moves across the PAC, enhancing it….
  19. snowman19
    If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C ^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher. This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”
  20. snowman19
    The RONI reached El Niño status on the daily yesterday, almost +0.6C. The traditional ONI was +1.0C
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  23. snowman19
    The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2: ^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”
  24. snowman19
    Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
  25. snowman19
    This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event
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