Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,143

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 This is what you were talking about the other day with true, classic low frequency El Niño forcing (standing wave) setting up and sinking/subsidence over the IO and Indonesia for a change….
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    @Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO?
  4. snowman19
    Translation: “The atmospheric indicators required for the equatorial Pacific warming to be fed back from the atmosphere (ocean-atmosphere coupling) are already visible: a strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index, a decrease in OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (in fact, it is already reaching the values of analogous observed events), and a weakening of the trade winds (850mb) between the coast of South America and the international date line. All these parameters are consistent with the presence and consolidation of #ElNiño. The MJO is playing a role in this, over the last few days.” ^This along with the AAM popping positive are all consistent with a strongly coupling (Bjerknes feedback) El Niño event “A massive westerly wind burst is currently commencing across the West/Central Pacific. As it moves East, this is likely going to kick El Niño into overdrive. All ENSO regions are already solidly above average, and this even will likely help push the warm pool (with record SSTs in many spots) further east into the East/Central Pacific.”
  5. snowman19
    Either way the AAM is going positive
  6. snowman19
    Agreed
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    “The CFS continues to trend upward in even *relative* Nino 3.4 signals with new initial conditions in spite of relatively little westerly wind stress forcing, as the model initial conditions better integrate the subsurface ocean state in response to westerly wind forcing already integrated into the ocean system. The relative index fixes a real problem of the warming of the global tropical ocean, but it also shrinks the scale of Nino 3.4 events beyond that because the relative index includes signal driven by ENSO itself.”
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
    ^ “I have a feeling after this upcoming WWB, we're going to see the atmosphere-ocean system in a very classic-looking El Niño state. Increased easterly anomalies across the Indian Ocean will probably also shift things to a more +IOD state. EPS weeklies have an extremely classic-looking El Niño standing wave setting up, with rising motion across the East/Central Pacific and sinking air across the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Also, the EPS weeklies show above-normal westerly shear across the Atlantic for the entire 6-week forecast. Even brief Kelvin waves/MJO passages don't really seem to break that. The windows for Atlantic tropical development this year may be few and far between.”
  12. snowman19
    Massive +AAM spike coming and an El Nino standing wave is developing. It’s absolutely coupling (ocean-atmosphere) and coupling strongly Per Paul Roundy we are about to pull ahead of 1997
  13. snowman19
    “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.”
  14. snowman19
    “Southern Oscillation Index is the most negative it has been with the current #ElNiño event. The subsurface warmth will continue to surface taking the SOI even more negative in time. This is the ocean/atmospheric coupling that is necessary. This is why it was important to recognize that El Niño impacts (not equal or the same everywhere) were going to occur much sooner than the "fall/winter narrative"
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
  19. snowman19
    @stormchaserchuck1 It not only looks like 1997, the far eastern subsurface is actually warmer than 1997 was now:
  20. snowman19
    That KW is a monster
  21. snowman19
    Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    CPC also making comparisons to 1997 now:
  25. snowman19
    Here comes the next WWB round of surface and subsurface warming and strengthening. This is going to spark off another DWKW. Think the June model runs go wild with the peak. And in other news, the ++PMM continues to rage
×
×
  • Create New...