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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs
  2. snowman19
    Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months
  3. snowman19
    Wow….
  4. snowman19
    This latest MJO forecast propagation we just saw was actually stellar weeks in advance. Spot on actually
  5. snowman19
    Incorrect
  6. snowman19
    Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.
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  10. snowman19
    Well considering that it was showing a moderate/borderline strong El Niño on the last run then suddenly jumped to a super El Niño in one run, yea, it’s safe to assume it’s still adjusting and playing catch up to all the other guidance
  11. snowman19
    Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months Edit: @40/70 Benchmark What’s going to be your go to weenie model when the CANSIPS inevitably flips in the next few runs?
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  13. snowman19
    I actually think it ends up as a top 3 super El Niño. IMO it peaks at over +2.5C (ONI and RONI) in the November/December time frame. I also believe it’s going to be an east-based/East Pacific event
  14. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up: You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:
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  16. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC season…..and another WWB….
  17. snowman19
    This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time
  18. snowman19
    The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early
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  21. snowman19
    Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east And there are more WWBs to come….
  22. snowman19
    If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño
  23. snowman19
    I agree that we are going to see big warming coming up with the massive DWKW that has just begun propagating east from the WPAC and the continued WWBs. Also, already seeing signs of a strong +IOD forming with the robust cooling around Australia. That’s going to constructively interfere with the ongoing Nino development/Bjerknes feedback
  24. snowman19
    Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
  25. snowman19
    ^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”
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