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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….
  2. snowman19
    It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength…. Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023:
  3. snowman19
    You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong
  6. snowman19
    Rapid warming in the western IOD region and cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia/Australia. The +IOD is coming on fast. Once it gets established, it’s going to project onto (constructively interfere) that huge El Niño standing wave signal you showed and it’s going to increase the Bjerknes feedback even more @LakePaste25 @40/70 Benchmark@BlizzardWx @csnavywx @donsutherland1 @raindancewx
  7. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ
  8. snowman19
    Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this. This is as east-based of an evolution as you could possibly get: In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop….
  9. snowman19
    I never said it’s done warming. My post only dealt with what has happened from when this event started up to now, not what is going to happen in the future with region 4. It may very well start warming again in the fall. @LakePaste25 I agree with you about the peak. I think this event more than likely peaks in December, not November like the EURO is showing Jeez, it already looks impressive as hell
  10. snowman19
    Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997
  11. snowman19
    As @csnavywx suspected, we are going to handedly surpass 1997…. We are on the verge of breaking 1997’s -SOI record (@Gawx), we are warmer in region 3.4, we are neck and neck in region 1+2 and we have broken 1997’s OHC record
  12. snowman19
    Yes it’s the CFS for September, but Holy El Niño!
  13. snowman19
    It’s the latest fantasy from the usual east coast weenie suspects on social media who are looking for any excuse possible to downplay and say a super El Niño is not going to happen and it’s not going to couple in the atmosphere/ocean. First it was the RONI cope, failed, then it was the SOI cope, failed, then it was the Modoki cope, failed, then it was the MEI cope, failed, now it’s the negative PDO cope. Just an insane circus show this year. This asinine, delusional “-PDO with a super east-based El Niño means a very cold and snowy winter in the east..1957-58 and 1965-66 are the analogs” wishcast was dreamed up by none other than JB once he realized his MEI cope was destined to fail and it’s spreading like wildfire with Mark Moregarbage and the other fools on twitter
  14. snowman19
    This is just ridiculous. Westerlies clear across the entire tropical Pacific basin
  15. snowman19
    This system is now self-sustaining, positive feedback with the standing wave and is just going to continue strengthening, warming and maintaining the convection/westerly flow
  16. snowman19
    As strong El Niño as it gets….. And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline
  17. snowman19
    The 30C isotherm continues to be pushed further east of the dateline by the constant WWBs. It’s extremely likely that it gets pushed all the way to 140W by November like the models are showing, which would be record-breaking. The developing parade of typhoons are only going to enhance the westerlies/WWBs going forward. The warm pool east of the dateline has moved the downwelling Kelvin wave generation area to around the dateline to 165W. This means it will take less time for warm water to be transported into the EPAC, thus El Nino will grow very quickly from here on out. A record-breaking historic event is guaranteed at this point. I think we see forcing possibly set up the furthest east on record by late fall/winter. Here is a taste of what is to come on this side of the hemisphere with the STJ……
  18. snowman19
    There has been a total collapse of the South Pacific High (“Anticyclone”). Something that hasn’t happened since 1997 and one of the main reasons for the inferno in region 1+2, along with the huge WWBs and DWKWs we’ve been seeing for months….
  19. snowman19
    The EPAC TC train has left the station….
  20. snowman19
    We’ve now passed 1997’s OHC record, we are over +2.6C The Peru weather service just updated, they are expecting “extraordinary” (aka super) El Niño costero (region 1+2) conditions, with SSTs greater than +3.5C to continue into 2027….. Region 3.4 continues shattering SST records
  21. snowman19
    +AAM as far as the eye can see In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….
  22. snowman19
    @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave @LakePaste25 Almost a guarantee that the record rise in the MEI since April continues unabated. This El Niño system is extremely well coupled, ocean-atmosphere (Bjerknes feedback). Textbook. Coupling right down to the ERWs. Feeling more and more confident that we see a +2 MEI by met fall…..
  23. snowman19
    WWB after WWB after WWB, DWKW after DWKW…
  24. snowman19
    Warm water volume up to +2.65
  25. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at this….the last 2 super El Niños (1997, 2015) at this point in time compared to this one. It’s not even close…it’s blatantly obvious we have a historic, monster event coming…..
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