Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,348

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is just going to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content:
  2. snowman19
    Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east @Gawx Edit: The new OHC is up to +2.5C and climbing
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Here comes the next monster WWB
  5. snowman19
    With the last 3 super El Niños, (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), the last region to go back to ENSO neutral was region 1+2. That region stayed in a strong El Niño until spring in all 3, while the other regions went back to neutral first
  6. snowman19
    @Mitchnick Which models are you looking at that always show the trade winds coming back? Because you’ve been saying that for quite awhile now and all we’ve seen are record breaking WWBs, westerlies and a complete trade wind reversal
  7. snowman19
    This is a decidedly east-based (EP) event. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline strongly supports an extremely east-based event like 1997 was. The difference is that this one is going to be stronger than 1997-98….In fact, likely the strongest one in history @LakePaste25
  8. snowman19
    1997 is the best analog for this event, by far. It’s uncanny. This Nino is going to be stronger however
  9. snowman19
    Whether the forcing is at 140W or wherever, we won’t know for sure until November….one thing is for absolutely sure and guaranteed, this super El Niño is going to be the main driver this winter, for sure, by far and away, the elephant in the room
  10. snowman19
    We have broken the 1997 record for Peru’s (next to region 1+2) highest air temperate record It doesn’t get more El Niño than this, clearly defined El Niño convective standing wave/forcing: This is likely to be a record-breaking EPAC TC season
  11. snowman19
    Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….
  12. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event
  13. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust. The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November
  14. snowman19
    I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC
  15. snowman19
    Sea level anomalies vs 1997….wow Sea level heights…this is a monster:
  16. snowman19
    Agreed.
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
  21. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
  22. snowman19
    “40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
  25. snowman19
    I’m starting to think the CFS isn’t overdone with the peak anymore. The way this is going, a traditional ONI peak of +4C and a RONI peak of +3.5C would not surprise me. I also think we have an MEI of +2 come August based on how strong the ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) is becoming Every model has a monster come November/December
×
×
  • Create New...