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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) then this:
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  3. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC season…..and another WWB….
  4. snowman19
    This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time
  5. snowman19
    The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early
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  8. snowman19
    Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east And there are more WWBs to come….
  9. snowman19
    If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño
  10. snowman19
    I agree that we are going to see big warming coming up with the massive DWKW that has just begun propagating east from the WPAC and the continued WWBs. Also, already seeing signs of a strong +IOD forming with the robust cooling around Australia. That’s going to constructively interfere with the ongoing Nino development/Bjerknes feedback
  11. snowman19
    Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
  12. snowman19
    ^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”
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  14. snowman19
    Dear stupid cow, That’s actually what the new RONI forecast shows, which is not generated by AI you vapid little airhead
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  16. snowman19
    Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too….
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  19. snowman19
    The models are starting to go bonkers with multiple TC’s developing in the PAC over the next week…..
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  21. snowman19
    Here comes more WWBs. I think this is going to be a record-breaking TC season in the PAC….
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  23. snowman19
    Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated
  24. snowman19
    In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history
  25. snowman19
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