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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    +IOD development. And it’s going to be off to the races….
  2. snowman19
    Yes. The next WWB late month is modeled as being amplified by an Equatorial Rossby Wave (ERW), which would trigger another DWKW and another big subsurface and surface warming push into the EPAC. If so, we would see a bunch of TC’s develop like the models are starting to advertise, causing more westerlies behind them, in their wake
  3. snowman19
    I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response ^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves 09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “
  6. snowman19
    Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s
  7. snowman19
    1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos
  8. snowman19
    The CFS just continues to go higher with the peak: And building upon what LakePaste just posted, extreme (super) El Niño events offer better forecast reliability with their very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling:
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August
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  12. snowman19
    Not one person made a winter forecast on here not a single one. How dare we discuss a potential historic El Niño event in a dedicated ENSO thread. This shit is the reason why people like Isotherm, HM and a few others don’t post on here anymore. The weenies crying that someone is trying to take their cold and snow away. It’s fucking pathetic. Grow the fuck up
  13. snowman19
    Still very good cross-model agreement on a high amplitude MJO wave pushing through the PAC come later this month. That is going to constructively interfere with El Niño and initiate another big WWB and DWKW and TC’s. June’s ENSO model runs should be very interesting…..
  14. snowman19
    The new NMME is showing very strong coupling and a massive (El Nino) standing wave developing in June
  15. snowman19
    A recent (2025) research paper came up with this conclusion about +PMM El Niños: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link to the research paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.
  16. snowman19
    Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños
  17. snowman19
    The NMME joins the EURO, BOM, CFS
  18. snowman19
    @Bluewave @donsutherland1 This is going to cause another massive WWB/DWKW and TC’s. It’s also going to enhance the already strong ocean-atmosphere coupling/Bjerknes feedback. IMO this El Niño surpasses 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 both in RONI and traditional ONI….
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  23. snowman19
    ^ “Worth noting that while the ECMWF has had a high bias in some ENSO forecasts in past springs, so far the forecasts from earlier this spring are verifying quite nicely with the rapid evolution towards +ENSO. In past bust cases (like 2017 and 2022), the warm bias was already evident by May. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Doesn't mean the model is perfect, but there's also no evidence of a major bust this time around.”
  24. snowman19
    Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding
  25. snowman19
    82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave @donsutherland1 @Isotherm “The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”
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