snowman19

Agreed. Unless we see a major SSWE and SPV destruction or close to it, I don’t see how we avoid a canonical La Niña mid-late January and especially February and March

Verbatim it looks like a classic canonical “front-loaded” La Niña progression

I wasn’t insinuating that 2nd year Nina’s are bad. It’s 3rd year triple dip Nina’s that tend to be bad. As far as the IOD I would not say it’s voodoo. Definitely not voodoo like the October Siberian snowcover debacle at least

I forget which winter it was recently, I’m sure you remember, but the models kept incorrectly showing high amplitude MJO waves barreling right through phases 8-1-2 over and over all winter long (EPS in particular), in the long-range which never actually happened. They also kept showing phantom SSWEs and record weakening of the SPV, which also never happened. It was brutal, everyone kept falling for it….

I’m not saying that we won’t see +PNA intervals, I’m just doubting that they are very frequent/long in duration. We both agree that we won’t see a 2022-23 style nuclear RNA. My reasoning: 2nd year Niña and the continued North PAC cooling since September 1st. Guess we’ll see what happens soon

I agree with probably 95% of your thoughts on this winter…however, I do part ways on the PNA. I think it’s going to be significantly more negative than you are thinking….no, not 2022-23 negative obviously, but yea

The BOM model takes it weakly into phase 7 before it dies out

I guess some people just looked at the -AO/-NAO part of Eric’s post and looked no further. He has some real ugly analog years in there….1988, 1999, 2011…. See:

This feature appeared at the very beginning of September and has basically been semi-permanent since. The models continue it right through mid-November and beyond. Should this continue into the tail end of this month, I think that would be rather significant. @donsutherland1 @bluewave EDIT: @mitchnick Wrong. He’s also a meteorologist. Guess you didn’t bother to read that part in his Twitter profile

My best guess right now is that it dies when it hits phase 7 then ends up back in the IO

I think it does get into phase 6/7. My big question is what happens when it reaches 7

The Northeast Pacific continues to cool, the “blob” area has cooled over -1.25C since September 1st. While these SSTs are not driving the pattern, it’s indicative of a longwave pattern that favors cooling in that area. If we get to 11/30 with no sign of this trend completely reversing, it’s going to become very difficult for people to continuing using years that saw SST patterns with a “warm blob”. To clarify, I’m only speaking of the people who are using SST analogs with warm blobs, not other factors (QBO, solar, PDO, AMO, etc.) to justify certain analogs

The IOD is peaking right now. It’s at -1.94 through 11/2 and expected to peak by 11/10. With the ongoing cooling in the WIO and warming in the EIO, I expect it to bottom out on the next weekly update at or slightly below -2.

At absolutely no point did I ever say it wouldn’t be a weak La Niña. Never ever, not once. However, it is much, much better coupled than last year at this time

In particular, when November sees no measurable snowfall then December goes on to see below average snowfall during a La Niña, it very strongly corresponds to a below to well below average season. Obviously not 100% and I’m sure people can find exceptions to that rule over the course of 100+ years of weather record keeping, but as a sweeping generality it works very well

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year, the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore @GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference

Correct. A cold western IO and a warm eastern IO is textbook negative IOD. If you notice on the SST charts, the western IO is still cooling very rapidly. I believe we are nearing the peak, probably within the next 2 weeks or so and I have very good confidence based on the ongoing cooling and the last weekly update that this event reaches or exceeds -2, which would make it one of the strongest -IOD events in history. It already set a weekly record (since 2000) on the last update

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

The period from 1979-1993 sucked for snow in the I-95 corridor. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard

I really like how people who only post on these boards from November through the end of March (then go totally MIA for the other 7 months out of the year) show up here to troll members who have been contributing to this really informative thread all spring, summer and fall. It’s sad honestly and it’s banter. Don’t agree with someone because of perceived biases? Let’s attack and troll. They aren’t weather fans, they’re cold and snow fans only. And people wonder why great meteorologists like HM, Isotherm and a few others don’t ever post on here anymore

Ok? Is this meant as a troll? I’m confused

After a very brief rise towards neutral, the AAM goes deeply negative again, SOI stays stubbornly positive….

To answer your question more specifically, this was literally just posted on X 15 min ago: “The question many people ask is: is MJO good? Does it propagate in the CPAC? Not an easy answer since there are many factors that influence atmospheric circulation, first of all the IOD and secondly the ENSO. A strongly negative phase of the IOD increases tropical convection, enhancing it on the maritime continent with strong WWB, while a negative ENSO with colder SST over the central Pacific (La Nina CP) favors strong EWB on the international date line (180°). This situation sees strong diverging trade winds in the equatorial area. A strong propagation above the CPAC (upward converging heat fluxes) is excluded, if not a rapid phase but with a weak magnitude, there could still be some weak effect even in the mid-latitudes to be evaluated later. The Hovmoller diagram at 850hpa shows this rapid passage of WWB over the CPAC due to the support of a gravitational kelvin wave. The PV could remain weak at the moment due to the eQBO with a probable Canadian Warming whose effects will affect America and less Europe. With these variables, the atmospheric circulation will remain blocked with a tropical convection that will remain on the maritime continent with difficulty in propagating over the Pacific”

@GaWx I’m not sure exactly what it’s going to do, but my educated guess is that it affects MJO behavior, actual specifics? I’m not sure yet. I also think it is going to constructively interfere with the La Niña and enhance atmospheric coupling