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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    Yea, we normally see a raging STJ during a La Niña. Looks very Niña like!! Lol
  2. snowman19
    Yep. El Nino standing wave. This upcoming WWB and follow up DWKW is going to be monstrous. And in other news, the models are getting more aggressive with a strong +IOD forming by this fall Wow, look at the WWB animation…
  3. snowman19
    IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event @roardog Yes on the +PDO
  4. snowman19
    We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST) The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C
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  6. snowman19
    Even the new RONI projections are up to +3C now: ^ “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.” Check out this animated thermocline progression over the last month…..just wow:
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
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  10. snowman19
    @stormchaserchuck1 It not only looks like 1997, the far eastern subsurface is actually warmer than 1997 was now:
  11. snowman19
    That KW is a monster
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997
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  16. snowman19
    CPC also making comparisons to 1997 now:
  17. snowman19
    Here comes the next WWB round of surface and subsurface warming and strengthening. This is going to spark off another DWKW. Think the June model runs go wild with the peak. And in other news, the ++PMM continues to rage
  18. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Here is an English translation of this disco on the super Nino/+IOD effects: “Look, as I indicated in my pinned tweet's prediction, the analogs are supporting it. The occurrence of very strong El Niño conditions simultaneously with a positive IOD tends to lead to a shift of the tropical convective core along the ITCZ toward the eastern-central Pacific; in this process, deep convection over the Maritime Continent is suppressed. I drew the ITCZ areas on the data. This structure weakens and fragments the Walker circulation, disrupts zonal (east-west) continuity, and particularly supports the formation of anomalous upper-level divergence over the eastern Pacific basin. The resulting overturning circulation anomalies strengthen convection in the equatorial Pacific while increasing subsidence-induced drying conditions in the Maritime Continent region around Indonesia and its surroundings. It will significantly affect the mid-latitudes through MJO/BSIO and teleconnections”
  19. snowman19
    ^ Regarding region 1+2: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997”
  20. snowman19
    This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997 ^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving. The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection. Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.”
  21. snowman19
    IMO the Niña-like MJO (IO) forcing comes to an end with this El Niño once the +IOD gets established. The standing wave Nino/+IOD forcing combo is going to cause the eastern IO SSTs to upwell and cool off, causing subsidence in that region
  22. snowman19
    Yea, this one is developing as a “Costero”/coastal (east-based, EP) El Niño event. According to the South American Mets, we haven’t seen anything like this since 1997
  23. snowman19
    From a South American Met: ^ Translation: “This is the magnitude of how deep—and therefore how long-lasting—the warming of the ocean floor near our coasts is. We're talking about 100 meters or more in its most significant part and nearly 500 in its verifiable depth. All that warm anomaly is advancing toward the South American coastal edge. There's little the APS can do, as noted (APS=South Pacific Anticyclone) We haven't seen anything like this since 1997. This is one of the reasons, perhaps the most relevant one, why there's so much information about a major #ElNiño event on the horizon.”
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  25. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
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