Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,506

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    I said it before and I’ll say it again. I think the PDO flips positive. Likely weak positive but positive none the less. On a side note, I also see a rapid recovery and restrengthening of the SPV after the dip next month. The background conditions are much too hostile to sustain a weak SPV As far as 2009-10 lol If anyone actually believes that, I have a bridge to sell them Edit: @mitchnick As big as the warm temperature departures are going to be this winter
  2. snowman19
    Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C
  3. snowman19
    He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015
  4. snowman19
    There are many more. Absolute clown show on there
  5. snowman19
    One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest
  6. snowman19
    The strong low frequency (El Nino) forcing is totally different from what we saw back in 2015. The MC and eastern IO is completely shutdown and has been since spring, courtesy of the severely east-based super Nino, weak MJO, due to the Nino overwhelming everything, the entire 30C warm pool is moved all the way to 140W and the +IOD is reinforcing all of this. The ++PMM is also helping to lock it in
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Still a disconnect between NOAA and the Australian BOM on the official weekly RONI number…..not huge (little over 0.3) but still a difference none the less….CPC has it at +2.5C and the BOM has it at +2.8C Here’s the traditional ONI anomaly, the absolute temperature remains over 30C, which is also record-breaking:
  10. snowman19
    Right now I see no reason to doubt a warmer than normal December in the northeast/midatlantic based on the extremely strong correlation with El Niño/+QBO over the last 46+ years
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it
  13. snowman19
    Traditional ONI, RONI, absolute SST……
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    We are 100% on the same page. This background state is extremely hostile to major SSWEs and a sustained weak SPV….lack of a strong MJO 6, 7, 8 propagation (due to the historic El Niño), the very strong low frequency Nino forcing is totally overwhelming and muting the MJO signal, as is typical for super events, a downwelled, very strong and still strengthening +QBO, descending solar off last year’s solar max, high geomag, +IOD…….
  16. snowman19
    Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total wind reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE
  17. snowman19
    An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption
  18. snowman19
    A volcanic stratosphere??? Huh???? We don’t have a volcanic stratosphere. Like not even remotely close to one. I haven’t even the slightest glimmer of a clue as what that means
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
    This extreme warmth is about to be realized at the surface come December. The +4C December peak being shown by the EURO is absolutely believable and very likely
  21. snowman19
    It’s now official. For the 1st time ever in recorded weather history, Nino region 3.4 went above 30C (absolute temperature). If there was any little doubt left that this is going to be an all-time record El Niño, this settled it @bluewave
  22. snowman19
    Once we saw the complete trade wind reversal and the record-breaking WWBs/DWKWs this spring along with the full-scale propagation east of the 30C warm pool, I knew this thing was going to shoot to the moon. The DWKWs breaking at the South American coast and the ++PMM were the clues that it was going to be severely east-based. The +IOD forming also fell right into place this fall too, as was expected, so no shock there
  23. snowman19
    IMO the subsurface hits +13C next month
  24. snowman19
    Run after run for months the EURO has insisted on a December peak. The new run is no different and it hasn’t backed off the all time, record-shattering peaks for regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 one iota come December:
  25. snowman19
    @so_whats_happening
×
×
  • Create New...