snowman19

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

My final call is 4-6 total for area. I’m going with the op EURO and EPS

@CoastalWx I can’t believe there’s still people peddling 6-12 and 8-12 forecasts for the NYC metro area. They are going to bust hard. The QPF never supported those amounts, the speed doesn’t, the ratios never supported it and now the new meso model runs (high res RGEM and 3K/12K NAM) are showing a very strong mid-level warm nose and turn it into a sleet-a-rama even well north and west of the city

The only thing the NAM is good for is accurately showing warm noses. It surprisingly excels in WAA events. Other than that, it’s completely useless

Warm noses are always underestimated at this range. The fact that the mesos (hi res RGEM/NAM) are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way north of NYC is a red flag. They turn it into a sleet fest. Ignore at your own risk. Globals (GFS, ICON, CMC, UKMET, EURO) are not going to pick on it as good as the mesos. Today is the day to take them seriously. Larry Cosgrove said many years ago ‘do not ignore the meso models showing mid-level warm noses in a WAA event they are usually right’

The 6z hi res RGEM and the 6z 3K and 12K NAM runs are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way up into Rockland, Orange, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen, Westchester. The Ptype goes to a sleet fest. This should be taken seriously due to the fact this is a WAA event

If this couples with the troposphere, we have issues next month. The SPV is about to strengthen rapidly, become quite strong, consolidate and move up over the pole. We haven’t had coupling so far and we didn’t last winter, but that doesn’t mean it can’t change. Different QBO evolution this year. This is something to watch very closely EDIT: @stadiumwave Again, I said “this is something to watch very closely.” I didn’t say anywhere that it would couple. There is no guarantee that this does couple nor that it doesn’t couple. I did read Commodity’s tweet. Merry Christmas

This is likely a 3-5 event for NYC metro area. Consider it a big win given then extreme -PNA (full latitude trough down to Baja) that’s going to be in place during this event

Oh the idiot is back. Hi idiot. Did you bother to read where I said “FWIW” and “guru” (being sarcastic)? Nevermind, you’re too much of an airhead to comprehend something that complicated. Man, you are really stupid. No clue, none….

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January

Can you explain why exactly this is going to be a very high ratio snow other than “it’s going to be very cold”?

Why are you posting the Kuchera ratio map? There’s a reason why the National Weather Service never uses it

You are setting yourself up to be trolled relentlessly if this fails and if your snowstorm fantasies tomorrow and the weekend/next week fail and make no mistake about it, I will. Hard to believe you’re a cop

Early January happened already? And admit you were wrong about MJO phase 8 for 30 days and a major SSWE with an SPV split

If there is in fact a snowstorm Friday-Saturday in the NYC metro with a PNA that strongly negative (full-latitude trough down to Baja), then it will be remembered as an extremely anomalous event

If it flipped this much in 2 days, how do you know it won’t do it again?

New NWS snow map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter WWA for Rockland, Western Bergen, Northern Westchester, Eastern Passaic: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

The 3K (hi res) NAM looks nothing like the regular NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025122118&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=nam4km New NWS Upton update: Snow map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Disco: SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Increasing likelihood of a light snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts through the region. The snow changes to rain along the coast Tuesday morning, and potentially for most inland areas by early afternoon. * Total accumulations of up to an inch for the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal CT, and 1 to 2 inches for interior areas. * Travel impacts to the Tuesday AM commute likely, with icy conditions possible on colder, untreated surfaces. Cold high pressure overhead on Monday, with dry conditions prevailing through the day. Mid level shortwave traverses east, sending a warm front toward the region into Monday night into Tuesday. Primary low remains well to the north before attempting to redevelop offshore along the front later Tuesday as the system exits. Clouds increase Monday evening as the warm front approaches, and still on track for a light snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the front lifts through the region. A snow band develops and moves in from the west generally after midnight, if not closer to daybreak, based on latest hi-res guidance. The precip will have to overcome dry air initially in the low levels, with surface dew pts likely in the teens to start. Thermal profile in general looks marginal along the coast, where temperatures in the mid 30s should wet bulb down to around freezing or so. Increasing SW flow at the surface will begin warming the BL and force a transition to rain/snow by mid morning along the coast, before gradually becoming light rain by late morning. This transition should work its way inland through southern CT, but may struggle to fully changeover into the Lower Hudson Valley before precipitation shuts off here. Additional precip may develop into early afternoon, especially eastern and coastal areas, as low pressure attempts to develop and deepen offshore as the system pulls away, but any light rain that remains tapers by the early evening. QPF overall will be light, largely near or under a quarter inch, which will limit any potential snowfall. Forecast amounts have not changed significantly from the previous forecast, with up to an inch along the coast, and 1 to 2 inches moving inland north of interstates 80 and 95, with highest amounts in the elevated areas of the interior LoHud Valley, interior SW Connecticut, and NE NJ. Certainly plausible many coastal locales see little if any accumulation, or just a light coating. Will depend how much the dry air limits initial precip with the WAA band. Given the timing, travel impacts for Tuesday`s morning commute appear likely, particularly on any colder, untreated surfaces where snow occurs. Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as precip begins to taper, even inland. High pressure begins building towards the area from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night as the exiting low deepens as it tracks further offshore. The tightening gradient should increase the NW flow in response, and keep most areas in the 30s overnight into Wed AM.

Obviously the EPS is totally lost. If it’s flip flopping that bad run to run in the long range, it’s not even worth taking it seriously right now no matter what it shows. The EPS and op EURO is definitely not what it used to be and the “updates” from a few years ago ruined it, it’s had some really abysmal failures the last few years

The National Weather Service disagrees with you: Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter New disco: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow inland. * Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch (potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ. * Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday. High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions prevailing.

His earlier forecast was predicted on the warm pool being moved east, which he says is starting to look unlikely. He says a weak SPV is actually a detriment

Huh? The link to the NWS blend of models is the TOTAL snowfall out to 89 hours, which is Wednesday. Look at what it’s showing…that’s now till Wednesday, total. And the GEFS is in complete disagreement with its own operational run, that is fact and it’s a red flag

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 NWS Blend of Models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hot off the presses from NWS Upton. New anticipated Snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter New Disco: A near zonal northern stream flow will predominate through the extended forecast period, except for Wednesday with a ridge building from the Gulf coast states into central Canada. With the near zonal flow temperatures will be generally near seasonal normals, with no cold surges expected. Late Monday nigh a warm front will approach from the southwest, and push through most of the area during the day Tuesday. Light precipitation is likely with the front, and will begin as light snow across the region late Monday night, then as the warm air moves northward, the precipitation will mix with and eventually change to rain, initially along the coast, and then further inland as the day progresses. The warm air may not reach the far inland section, mainly the Lower Hudson Valley, and a rain/snow mix may continue through Tuesday. Bufkit soundings are indicating the possibility of a wintry mix inland as warmer air aloft surges northward. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible. And with the upper levels drying through the day the precipitation becomes light. With the uncertainty in precipitation type, and timing will continue with just a rain/snow mix. High pressure builds into the region for late Tuesday