snowman19

The 3K (hi res) NAM looks nothing like the regular NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025122118&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=nam4km New NWS Upton update: Snow map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Disco: SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Increasing likelihood of a light snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts through the region. The snow changes to rain along the coast Tuesday morning, and potentially for most inland areas by early afternoon. * Total accumulations of up to an inch for the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal CT, and 1 to 2 inches for interior areas. * Travel impacts to the Tuesday AM commute likely, with icy conditions possible on colder, untreated surfaces. Cold high pressure overhead on Monday, with dry conditions prevailing through the day. Mid level shortwave traverses east, sending a warm front toward the region into Monday night into Tuesday. Primary low remains well to the north before attempting to redevelop offshore along the front later Tuesday as the system exits. Clouds increase Monday evening as the warm front approaches, and still on track for a light snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the front lifts through the region. A snow band develops and moves in from the west generally after midnight, if not closer to daybreak, based on latest hi-res guidance. The precip will have to overcome dry air initially in the low levels, with surface dew pts likely in the teens to start. Thermal profile in general looks marginal along the coast, where temperatures in the mid 30s should wet bulb down to around freezing or so. Increasing SW flow at the surface will begin warming the BL and force a transition to rain/snow by mid morning along the coast, before gradually becoming light rain by late morning. This transition should work its way inland through southern CT, but may struggle to fully changeover into the Lower Hudson Valley before precipitation shuts off here. Additional precip may develop into early afternoon, especially eastern and coastal areas, as low pressure attempts to develop and deepen offshore as the system pulls away, but any light rain that remains tapers by the early evening. QPF overall will be light, largely near or under a quarter inch, which will limit any potential snowfall. Forecast amounts have not changed significantly from the previous forecast, with up to an inch along the coast, and 1 to 2 inches moving inland north of interstates 80 and 95, with highest amounts in the elevated areas of the interior LoHud Valley, interior SW Connecticut, and NE NJ. Certainly plausible many coastal locales see little if any accumulation, or just a light coating. Will depend how much the dry air limits initial precip with the WAA band. Given the timing, travel impacts for Tuesday`s morning commute appear likely, particularly on any colder, untreated surfaces where snow occurs. Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as precip begins to taper, even inland. High pressure begins building towards the area from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night as the exiting low deepens as it tracks further offshore. The tightening gradient should increase the NW flow in response, and keep most areas in the 30s overnight into Wed AM.

Obviously the EPS is totally lost. If it’s flip flopping that bad run to run in the long range, it’s not even worth taking it seriously right now no matter what it shows. The EPS and op EURO is definitely not what it used to be and the “updates” from a few years ago ruined it, it’s had some really abysmal failures the last few years

The National Weather Service disagrees with you: Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter New disco: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow inland. * Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch (potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ. * Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday. High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions prevailing.

His earlier forecast was predicted on the warm pool being moved east, which he says is starting to look unlikely. He says a weak SPV is actually a detriment

Huh? The link to the NWS blend of models is the TOTAL snowfall out to 89 hours, which is Wednesday. Look at what it’s showing…that’s now till Wednesday, total. And the GEFS is in complete disagreement with its own operational run, that is fact and it’s a red flag

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 NWS Blend of Models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hot off the presses from NWS Upton. New anticipated Snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter New Disco: A near zonal northern stream flow will predominate through the extended forecast period, except for Wednesday with a ridge building from the Gulf coast states into central Canada. With the near zonal flow temperatures will be generally near seasonal normals, with no cold surges expected. Late Monday nigh a warm front will approach from the southwest, and push through most of the area during the day Tuesday. Light precipitation is likely with the front, and will begin as light snow across the region late Monday night, then as the warm air moves northward, the precipitation will mix with and eventually change to rain, initially along the coast, and then further inland as the day progresses. The warm air may not reach the far inland section, mainly the Lower Hudson Valley, and a rain/snow mix may continue through Tuesday. Bufkit soundings are indicating the possibility of a wintry mix inland as warmer air aloft surges northward. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible. And with the upper levels drying through the day the precipitation becomes light. With the uncertainty in precipitation type, and timing will continue with just a rain/snow mix. High pressure builds into the region for late Tuesday

Yep. Judah Cohen warned yesterday that the SPV was going to strengthen

The GEFS doesn’t agree: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122012&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hail and heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Wind gusts easily over 50mph. Saw towering cumulus congestus just before it started. No lightning or thunder here yet

@40/70 Benchmark Judah agrees with you

I mean your forecast looks very good so far. Mid-January aside, the twitter fantasy that this is a carbon copy of last year at this time and that we are about to go right back into an exact replica of the start of January last year, is completely absurd

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January

The modeling (ensembles/operationals) this afternoon is showing a decidedly east-based -NAO going into the beginning of January, also still holding on to the -PNA as well. If the true east-based -NAO is correct, it would be quite the change from what we have seen over the last 10 years or so with -NAO’s,

Yes. Late developing Miller B’s (which very strongly favor New England) with that look? Sure. Juiced Miller A KU’s coming up out of the Gulf and burying the I-95 corridor BAL-DC-PHL-NYC, which is what BAMWX was insinuating? No way

As depicted, that is not a classic KU, blockbuster coastal storm pattern as they claim. Where’s the +PNA to force meridional flow? BAMWX is all about getting clout/attention, likes, follows, subscription money, views and retweets

I think part of what helped December, 2010 was El Nino “hangover” from the very healthy Nino the winter before, so you still had some semblance of a southern stream/STJ around at that point

Especially given the -PNA and the very amplified PAC jet crashing into the PAC NW, that would make sense (omega ridge rolled over further east from the dead center of the CONUS position) that the models show right now

Chris, are there even any analogs for what the models are projecting for next week into the first few days of January? It’s extremely anomalous like you said…huge Aleutian ridge (-WPO), out of phase +EPO, strong -PNA, -NAO, neutral/negative AO and a massive omega ridge/omega block dead center of the CONUS?

The upcoming -NAO (Christmas week into New Year’s week) is projected to be east-based, in addition, the PAC looks like straight garbage and you have a huge omega ridge dead center of the CONUS, an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) with a +EPO and a very strong -PNA. So if you are looking to stay cool and avoid a “torch” in the east, that will work out fine then, the -NAO will keep the east cool, no “torch”. If you are looking for east coast snowstorms/nor’easters, it looks absolutely awful

I’m not seeing a way out (yet) from a canonical Niña February, I’ll reserve my final opinion once we are into January. That said, if there is in fact a major SSWE in February like you think there will be, with the lag, I would think that would/could affect March more so than February, especially if it occurs closer to mid-February (i.e. 2018)

It’s an east-based -NAO

We are and have been in a classic, canonical La Niña pattern since September 1st. It’s been fitting a “front-end loaded” Niña to a tee up to this point in time…..