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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    ^ “Worth noting that while the ECMWF has had a high bias in some ENSO forecasts in past springs, so far the forecasts from earlier this spring are verifying quite nicely with the rapid evolution towards +ENSO. In past bust cases (like 2017 and 2022), the warm bias was already evident by May. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Doesn't mean the model is perfect, but there's also no evidence of a major bust this time around.”
  2. snowman19
    Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding
  3. snowman19
    82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave @donsutherland1 @Isotherm “The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”
  4. snowman19
    This El Niño just started Even JB admits it’s coming
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  7. snowman19
    Yet another major WWB is gearing up, which will generate yet another DWKW. And there are hints of EPAC TC activity starting up, which generate more WWBs in their wake. If there was any doubt left that we are destined for a super El Niño (IMO a top 3 super Nino), this should put it to rest
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  10. snowman19
    Like 1982-83 and 1997-98, I expect this one to be east-based/EP too. I think we end up exceeding the 1982-83 RONI of +2.5C. And I do believe the traditional ONI ends up near +3.0C. Everything is screaming that this is going to be a top 3 super El Niño. As far as snowfall, that’s always the wildcard, especially with super Ninos where we saw the 1983 and 2016 monsters up the coast….
  11. snowman19
    Despite the wishcasting by a select few weenies on twitter trying their best to wishcast a super El Niño away by saying there is no atmospheric coupling, the actual facts and reality tell a completely different story….there is actually strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) and it is projected to stay that way:
  12. snowman19
    The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….
  13. snowman19
    The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs
  14. snowman19
    Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months
  15. snowman19
    Wow….
  16. snowman19
    Incorrect
  17. snowman19
    Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.
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  22. snowman19
    I actually think it ends up as a top 3 super El Niño. IMO it peaks at over +2.5C (ONI and RONI) in the November/December time frame. I also believe it’s going to be an east-based/East Pacific event
  23. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up: You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:
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  25. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC season…..and another WWB….
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