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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
  3. snowman19
    Is that supposed to be a racist comment? Seasoned mets who don’t speak English from other countries are stupid and aren’t qualified to comment in their own language? Their posts are useless because they aren’t from here? Horrible, insensitive/bigoted post from you. This El Niño is extremely well coupled: “We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.” https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  4. snowman19
    “40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:
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  7. snowman19
    I’m starting to think the CFS isn’t overdone with the peak anymore. The way this is going, a traditional ONI peak of +4C and a RONI peak of +3.5C would not surprise me. I also think we have an MEI of +2 come August based on how strong the ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) is becoming Every model has a monster come November/December
  8. snowman19
    FWIW here is the new JMA El Niño forecast….same as all the other models this month….showing a historic event
  9. snowman19
    We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface
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  11. snowman19
    The new EURO SEAS5 continues with a strong +IOD developing. Given all the other current antecedent conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere, there is going to be no limit to how much this Niño strengthens and couples from here on out. It would not surprise me if the MEI reaches or surpasses +2 come August….
  12. snowman19
    Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44
  13. snowman19
    We are about to catch up to and surpass 1997 in the eastern ENSO regions:
  14. snowman19
    @Lakepaste25
  15. snowman19
    The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….
  16. snowman19
    This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point: “+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent. A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause. The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts. Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback. However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.” ^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  17. snowman19
    “The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing. Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history. Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.”
  18. snowman19
    Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
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  20. snowman19
    Since we are very likely going to be in uncharted territory by early November with the warm pool pushed all the way to 140W (along with a record-breaking super El Niño in place for that matter), we aren’t going to know how the atmosphere reacts to that massive change in the global heat budget and the realignment of the ENSO Hadley Cell….where does it put the main forcing/standing wave convection? How far east does it go? We are going to have to wait and see what happens at that point in time….
  21. snowman19
    This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall… @LakePaste25 30kt westerlies to 120W lol
  22. snowman19
    Region 3.4 record-breaking: Region 1+2 also off the charts, the only El Niño event in history that was warmer in 1+2 at this point in time was 1997 and it wasn’t warmer by much
  23. snowman19
    I don’t see any reason whatsoever to doubt it gets to 120W by November like the Euro seasonal shows, it’s already east of the dateline and still being pushed by the WWBs
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  25. snowman19
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