Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,413

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter @forkyfork
  2. snowman19
    Also of note, that 30C warm pool keeps migrating further and further east of the dateline, pushed by the non stop WWBs
  3. snowman19
    Comparison of the difference in SSTs, last summer to this summer, same time frame….huge wow, night and day, not just at ENSO, but the +PMM as well. You can also see the IOD flip to positive with the big cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia, not shown but there has also been very substantial warming in the western IOD region
  4. snowman19
    ^ Holy GLAAM! I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee
  5. snowman19
    This Nino is about to go nuclear: ^ IMO the subsurface peaks at or around +12C. And the EURO keeps getting stronger with the next WWB forecast for August, which is going to cause another DWKW: Here comes the NH coupling: The IOD is now officially positive: And the “ELI” ENSO Longitude Index, which measures how far east or west the deep convection/forcing (standing wave) is, is now in 2nd place for the furthest east on record to date. Only, you guessed it, 1997, was further east and not by much. With the 30C isotherm east of the dateline, it’s virtually guaranteed that this year takes 1st place on that index soon for having the furthest east main tropical convective forcing: ELI: @LakePaste25
  6. snowman19
    As expected:
  7. snowman19
    I think we see a completely overpowering, historic strength STJ this fall and winter. Raging and very likely stronger than the STJ we saw back in 1997-98….Reasoning: 1) ++PMM 2) +QBO @EasternLI (Research paper) 3) Record-breaking super El Niño The QBO actually flipped negative by the 1997-98 winter, which I believe resulted in the -NAO/-AO blocking bouts. I believe it also helped to tame the STJ a bit, which was obviously on roids anyway, but could have been worse with a +QBO
  8. snowman19
    Historic TC season in the PAC inbound thanks to El Niño, and these are just going to keep the WWBs in full swing….
  9. snowman19
    Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs….
  10. snowman19
    Incredibly impressive sea level anomalies/thermocline:
  11. snowman19
    IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    Very strong coupling with the Nino standing wave convection/forcing: As anticipated, the EPAC has come alive
  15. snowman19
    A new CCSR/IRI update indicates [emoji305] A clear bias toward a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the fall of 2026. [emoji409] The highest probabilities reach around 84% during September and October. [emoji408] The multi-model average predicts a peak for the index of +1.5°C, with some individual scenarios higher
  16. snowman19
    We are breaking a bunch of 1997’s records. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997’s subsurface warmth. The OHC has broken 1997’s record, which was +2.5C, we are at +2.8C, this ongoing WWB is record-breaking, much stronger than the one that occurred around the same time in 1997, the associated DWKW is also stronger. This -SOI run is breaking 1997’s record. We are warmer in both region 3.4 and region 3 and we are virtually neck and neck in region 1+2: WWB: Region 3 is forecasted to go off the charts: The 30C isotherm is further east than 1997 (east of the dateline) and still moving east: “2026 for the win! Part of the present advantage is the ongoing westerly wind burst timed later than the corresponding one in 1997 (which was late May/early June). This year's summer wind event was longer and ultimately stronger. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline continues to support the extreme potential for this event.”
  17. snowman19
    The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….
  20. snowman19
    It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength…. Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023: @Stormchaserchuck1
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
    Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong
  23. snowman19
    Rapid warming in the western IOD region and cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia/Australia. The +IOD is coming on fast. Once it gets established, it’s going to project onto (constructively interfere) that huge El Niño standing wave signal you showed and it’s going to increase the Bjerknes feedback even more @LakePaste25 @40/70 Benchmark@BlizzardWx @csnavywx @donsutherland1 @raindancewx
  24. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ
  25. snowman19
    Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this. This is as east-based of an evolution as you could possibly get: In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop….
×
×
  • Create New...