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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    Like 1982-83 and 1997-98, I expect this one to be east-based/EP too. I think we end up exceeding the 1982-83 RONI of +2.5C. And I do believe the traditional ONI ends up near +3.0C. Everything is screaming that this is going to be a top 3 super El Niño. As far as snowfall, that’s always the wildcard, especially with super Ninos where we saw the 1983 and 2016 monsters up the coast….
  3. snowman19
    Despite the wishcasting by a select few weenies on twitter trying their best to wishcast a super El Niño away by saying there is no atmospheric coupling, the actual facts and reality tell a completely different story….there is actually strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) and it is projected to stay that way:
  4. snowman19
    The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….
  5. snowman19
    The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs
  6. snowman19
    Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months
  7. snowman19
    Wow….
  8. snowman19
    This latest MJO forecast propagation we just saw was actually stellar weeks in advance. Spot on actually
  9. snowman19
    Incorrect
  10. snowman19
    Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.
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  14. snowman19
    Well considering that it was showing a moderate/borderline strong El Niño on the last run then suddenly jumped to a super El Niño in one run, yea, it’s safe to assume it’s still adjusting and playing catch up to all the other guidance
  15. snowman19
    Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months Edit: @40/70 Benchmark What’s going to be your go to weenie model when the CANSIPS inevitably flips in the next few runs?
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  17. snowman19
    I actually think it ends up as a top 3 super El Niño. IMO it peaks at over +2.5C (ONI and RONI) in the November/December time frame. I also believe it’s going to be an east-based/East Pacific event
  18. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up: You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC season…..and another WWB….
  21. snowman19
    This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time
  22. snowman19
    The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early
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  25. snowman19
    Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east And there are more WWBs to come….
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