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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    @Gawx
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month. It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks This is a textbook east-based (EP) event: And that OHC….wow
  5. snowman19
    As suspected, given the super El Niño/++PMM, the EPAC tropical cyclone season is shaping up to be a blockbuster In other news, even the notoriously too cool CDAS daily has region 1+2 at almost +3.5C now And it has region 3.4 on the verge of +2.0C
  6. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is just going to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content:
  7. snowman19
    Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east @Gawx Edit: The new OHC is up to +2.5C and climbing
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Here comes the next monster WWB
  10. snowman19
    With the last 3 super El Niños, (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), the last region to go back to ENSO neutral was region 1+2. That region stayed in a strong El Niño until spring in all 3, while the other regions went back to neutral first
  11. snowman19
    This is a decidedly east-based (EP) event. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline strongly supports an extremely east-based event like 1997 was. The difference is that this one is going to be stronger than 1997-98….In fact, likely the strongest one in history @LakePaste25
  12. snowman19
    1997 is the best analog for this event, by far. It’s uncanny. This Nino is going to be stronger however
  13. snowman19
    Whether the forcing is at 140W or wherever, we won’t know for sure until November….one thing is for absolutely sure and guaranteed, this super El Niño is going to be the main driver this winter, for sure, by far and away, the elephant in the room
  14. snowman19
    We have broken the 1997 record for Peru’s (next to region 1+2) highest air temperate record It doesn’t get more El Niño than this, clearly defined El Niño convective standing wave/forcing: This is likely to be a record-breaking EPAC TC season
  15. snowman19
    Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….
  16. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event
  17. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust. The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November
  18. snowman19
    I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC
  19. snowman19
    Sea level anomalies vs 1997….wow Sea level heights…this is a monster:
  20. snowman19
    Agreed.
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
    We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB
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  25. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
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