snowman19

This event may finally cause the stagnant, record breaking warm pool in the WPAC to move. This may be the one to finally flip the Pacific:

Only a moron would lock anything in, in March. I haven’t seen anyone lock in an east-based super El Niño on here or even on twitter. Is there an increased chance of one? Yes. Especially if those twin TC’s along the record WWB verify. That said, IF, if, if we actually do see an east-based/East Pacific super El Niño, I can say with very good confidence that it will not be an arctic cold winter, regardless of what the QBO and stratosphere/SPV and solar do. Snow is a completely different matter since we’ve seen 2 record breaking KU blizzards during super El Niños, most recent being the 2015-16 super El Niño which saw the January, 2016 blizzard. Even the east-based super El Niño of 1982-83 had the Megalopolis blizzard in February, 1983. 1997-98 was obviously a wall to wall dud for snow until the first day of astronomical spring in March, 1998, when NYC saw 5 inches of snow, which was the only snowstorm of that entire winter for them…..

@so_whats_happening

As I recall, in order of most likely to least likely to have a SSWE during winter: El Niño/-QBO, La Niña/-QBO, El Niño/+QBO, La Niña/+QBO

My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD

Once you get to 3/15, Mother Nature takes care of it for you within a couple of days or less….

This winter in the NYC metro area (at least as far as snow is concerned) came to an end on 2/23 with the blizzard

The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños

I think it may take a super event to finally, at long last, completely flip and reshuffle the PAC. After the winter we just had, if we have to throw away one winter to an east-based, super El Niño and go back to the PAC of the early-mid 2000’s, I don’t think the people who love winter would be complaining

If the new EPS is correct, it’s going to get very warm again the 1st week of April

EPS is projecting a TC or possibly a pair/twin TC’s to develop within the big WWB. What happens with those could be very important in terms of how strong this El Niño gets down the road…..

I let my Pivotal subscription expire on 3/15

It’s going to snow again in NYC….you’re just going to have to wait until December. It’ll be here before you know it……

Worse. More like their version of 2001-02. The warmth out there has been off the charts

Denver has been in a relentless, unmitigated torch fest since November and it’s still going strong. Record shattering for 5 months in a row out there

Eric Webb just got even more bullish, said that if we see TC’s spin up along this record breaking WWB, it will seal the deal for a super El Niño. I think even more telling, is that you have Paul Roundy, who is the furthest thing from a hypester, saying this has a good chance to be the strongest El Niño in history, he also says this is developing as the most east-based/East Pacific event we’ve seen since the 1997-98 super Nino

That’s what I was thinking too….it may take a historic ENSO event to finally flip the unrelenting, stagnant Pacific. It’s been over 20 years (1997-98) since we’ve had a true, “super”, east-based/East Pacific El Niño. I guess the ‘we’re due’ argument would fit here, since 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, not east-based/EP

Yea, if this one ends up discharging all of that record breaking, pent up WPAC warmth….holy s*it. Paul would not be exaggerating, we would be talking a historic level El Niño. This one is also developing as a “classic”, canonical east-based/East Pacific (EP) event like 1997-98 did, which has been a staple of the strongest El Niños we’ve ever seen