The sun actually feels warm in the car again. First time since early November. 51 degrees and sunny here. Snow and ice melt galore, even in the shade. I feel like doing an Irish square dance! Spring is coming on fast!
Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look
That was HM’s big key years ago when he was still a member of these forums. He harped on the fact that you absolutely need decent west-based -NAO and -AO blocking in mid-late March to get I-95 corridor KU (snowstorm) events….
Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those….
Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?
If there was a strong west-based -NAO block along with a strong -AO showing up, then I’d say yes, there’s definitely a better chance, but none of the ensembles are showing that
Once you get to 3/15 and beyond, it’s very late/very rare for snowstorms south of New England. Can it happen? Yes. Has it happened? Yes. Can you totally rule it out? Obviously not. Would I bet on it? No. It takes an extremely anomalous, freak event at that point
Hopefully the snow melt and projected rain going forward tames brush fire season which starts soon. 3/15-5/15 is the annual burn ban in NY to help mitigate wildfire season….
It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave
Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it
Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo
Ditto on 7pm sunsets coming back next Sunday. I think most would agree, it feels good to finally have turned the corner on sunlight today. November-February is the “darkest” 4 months of the year. March is the month with the biggest gain in daylight of the entire year…great to be back, looking forward to baseball season. My little cousin has the first regular season game of his high school varsity season the last Friday of March