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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it
  3. snowman19
    Traditional ONI, RONI, absolute SST……
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    We are 100% on the same page. This background state is extremely hostile to major SSWEs and a sustained weak SPV….lack of a strong MJO 6, 7, 8 propagation (due to the historic El Niño), the very strong low frequency Nino forcing is totally overwhelming and muting the MJO signal, as is typical for super events, a downwelled, very strong and still strengthening +QBO, descending solar off last year’s solar max, high geomag, +IOD…….
  6. snowman19
    Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total wind reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE
  7. snowman19
    An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption
  8. snowman19
    A volcanic stratosphere??? Huh???? We don’t have a volcanic stratosphere. Like not even remotely close to one. I haven’t even the slightest glimmer of a clue as what that means
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    This extreme warmth is about to be realized at the surface come December. The +4C December peak being shown by the EURO is absolutely believable and very likely
  11. snowman19
    It’s now official. For the 1st time ever in recorded weather history, Nino region 3.4 went above 30C (absolute temperature). If there was any little doubt left that this is going to be an all-time record El Niño, this settled it @bluewave
  12. snowman19
    Once we saw the complete trade wind reversal and the record-breaking WWBs/DWKWs this spring along with the full-scale propagation east of the 30C warm pool, I knew this thing was going to shoot to the moon. The DWKWs breaking at the South American coast and the ++PMM were the clues that it was going to be severely east-based. The +IOD forming also fell right into place this fall too, as was expected, so no shock there
  13. snowman19
    IMO the subsurface hits +13C next month
  14. snowman19
    Run after run for months the EURO has insisted on a December peak. The new run is no different and it hasn’t backed off the all time, record-shattering peaks for regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 one iota come December:
  15. snowman19
    @so_whats_happening
  16. snowman19
    The 30C isotherm/warm pool has actually strengthened and expanded in size. The center of it is at 140W. Absolutely insane
  17. snowman19
    Very strong/super El Niños do “force” a +IOD to develop, I’d agree. It would be near impossible for one not to form with a Nino this strong. Then once it does form it constructively interferes and complements the Nino. As far as the ++PMM (Baja) this year, I believe that’s one of the main factors that caused this El Nino to be the most east-based we’ve ever seen, surpassing the previous most east-based Nino on record (1997-98). The strong +PMM/east-based Nino relationship was discussed in a research paper I shared on here back in the spring and it turned out to be correct
  18. snowman19
    And it’s getting even more of a boost from the +IOD now
  19. snowman19
    Not only more east-based than 1997-98, but way, way stronger than that super Nino was….. “Based on key metrics such as elevated moisture across the South and rainy conditions in Florida and California, this El Niño is forecast have a stronger signal by early December than events in 1982, 1997 and 2015.” @donsutherland1 @bluewave
  20. snowman19
    The +IOD atmospheric signature is clearly evident on the OLR/VP, reenforcing and constructively interfering with El Niño. And as you can see, the MC/IO is completely, totally shutdown as it has been since spring with very strong suppression and confluence from the super Nino. The +IOD is only enhancing this @donsutherland1
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
    OISST RONI up to over +2.8C
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
  25. snowman19
    More big warming in regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 coming up until it peaks in December. The EURO just keeps doubling down on the record-shattering SSTs it has by the beginning of December New EURO run:
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