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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    I have no explanation. It makes no sense whatsoever when compared to the OISST RONI. The BOM and NOAA are and have been in complete disagreement. The BOM has the official weekly readings consistently much higher than NOAA’s
  2. snowman19
    Something has got to give with the PDO/extratropics. The models continue the massive Nino forcing and coupling into the fall. The fall is when ENSO effects on the mid-latitudes become much more pronounced and continue to increase into the winter. Call me the crazy one, but I just can’t see the -PDO continuing beyond November and I’m confident that we see a rapid rise during met fall and an eventual flip to weak positive by the end of met fall
  3. snowman19
    The east-based forcing is absolutely believable. Why? Because we have the 30C isotherm all the way east of the dateline now and it’s still moving further east, being pushed by the non stop WWBs and DWKWs. The models have it getting all the way to 140W. This has never happened before in weather record history and the convection is going to follow it IMO In other news, the +IOD is getting stronger quickly, it’s now up to +0.63 from +0.44 last week. The models are also getting stronger with it this fall
  4. snowman19
    The spring ++PMM leading to an east-based/EP El Niño worked out perfectly! @Stormchaserchuck1 That research paper was actually a very good one that we saw verify Region 1+2:
  5. snowman19
    @GaWx @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @csnavywx @Isotherm @raindancewx @Stormchaserchuck1 @BlizzardWx @LakePaste25 @forkyfork @EasternLI
  6. snowman19
    Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm, 82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm *PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count*
  7. snowman19
    Here is a very interesting recent study on positive (westerly) QBO’s with El Niños Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112854 Key Points: Westerly Phase Impact: The westerly phase of the QBO suppresses tropical convection in the western Pacific, accentuating the weakening of the Walker circulation typical during El Niño. Observational and model evidence show that the QBO modulates upper-tropospheric divergence, with reduced outflow over the Maritime Continent during the westerly phase. It can also impact the warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, characterized by a weakened Walker circulation. These results suggest that considering the QBO state could improve El Niño prediction and projection, particularly for extreme events. @LakePaste25 @EasternLI @GaWx @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @Stormchaserchuck1
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    3.4 Over +2C: 1+2 Over +4C: Region 3 over +3C: Thermocline:
  10. snowman19
    It has been completely awful with the strength too. The worst out of any other model, in a world all to its own. It finally woke up and is playing catch up now. The weakest out of any other model for months and blatantly wrong
  11. snowman19
    @Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months and the record-breaking rise since April, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..
  12. snowman19
    I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall
  13. snowman19
    +12C subsurface anomalies are coming And the WWBs just keep pushing that 30C isotherm further and further east of the dateline. Great forecast by the EURO months ago showing the record far east warm pool
  14. snowman19
    The CANSIPS is playing catch up to the CFS and the EURO. It’s very likely not done strengthening this event even further, it was way too weak to start out with and very good call with its “Modoki bias”. I agree that it’s not done adjusting this to an east-based event either. The CFS just got even stronger with the traditional ONI and RONI. The EURO is guaranteed to get stronger as well, with its new update on 8/5 @LakePaste25
  15. snowman19
    The EPAC hurricane season off to a big start too with lots more to come
  16. snowman19
    Classic El Niño forcing is taking over the Northern Hemisphere. ++GLAAM
  17. snowman19
    Also of note, that 30C warm pool keeps migrating further and further east of the dateline, pushed by the non stop WWBs
  18. snowman19
    Comparison of the difference in SSTs, last summer to this summer, same time frame….huge wow, night and day, not just at ENSO, but the +PMM as well. You can also see the IOD flip to positive with the big cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia, not shown but there has also been very substantial warming in the western IOD region
  19. snowman19
    ^ Holy GLAAM! I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee
  20. snowman19
    This Nino is about to go nuclear: ^ IMO the subsurface peaks at or around +12C. And the EURO keeps getting stronger with the next WWB forecast for August, which is going to cause another DWKW: Here comes the NH coupling: The IOD is now officially positive: And the “ELI” ENSO Longitude Index, which measures how far east or west the deep convection/forcing (standing wave) is, is now in 2nd place for the furthest east on record to date. Only, you guessed it, 1997, was further east and not by much. With the 30C isotherm east of the dateline, it’s virtually guaranteed that this year takes 1st place on that index soon for having the furthest east main tropical convective forcing: ELI: @LakePaste25
  21. snowman19
    As expected:
  22. snowman19
    I think we see a completely overpowering, historic strength STJ this fall and winter. Raging and very likely stronger than the STJ we saw back in 1997-98….Reasoning: 1) ++PMM 2) +QBO @EasternLI (Research paper) 3) Record-breaking super El Niño The QBO actually flipped negative by the 1997-98 winter, which I believe resulted in the -NAO/-AO blocking bouts. I believe it also helped to tame the STJ a bit, which was obviously on roids anyway, but could have been worse with a +QBO
  23. snowman19
    Historic TC season in the PAC inbound thanks to El Niño, and these are just going to keep the WWBs in full swing….
  24. snowman19
    Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs….
  25. snowman19
    Incredibly impressive sea level anomalies/thermocline:
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