snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong?
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Further:
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After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO
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After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO
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So do the mets at the CPC
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The cool down looks like it is going to be as brief as the warmth next week, EPS starts warming the pattern up again by the Equinox (3/20)
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The EPS starts warming it back up again by the Equinox (3/20)….
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Well, we had the long awaited SSW, wind reversal and SPV split, however, it looks like the stratosphere and troposphere are going to stay completely uncoupled, no downwelling. Total disconnect between the two. Frans Nucera: “There is no propagation, the blocks are not created by the splitting of the polar vortex but by the troposphere which is not even reactive enough to create them under these conditions”
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Well, we had the long awaited SSW, wind reversal and SPV split, however, it looks like the stratosphere and troposphere are going to stay completely uncoupled, no downwelling. Total disconnect between the two. Frans Nucera: “There is no propagation, the blocks are not created by the splitting of the polar vortex but by the troposphere which is not even reactive enough to create them under these conditions”:
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The sun actually feels warm in the car again. First time since early November. 51 degrees and sunny here. Snow and ice melt galore, even in the shade. I feel like doing an Irish square dance! Spring is coming on fast!
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Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look
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That modeled look is definitely -WPO but not -EPO (ridge over Alaska)
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That was HM’s big key years ago when he was still a member of these forums. He harped on the fact that you absolutely need decent west-based -NAO and -AO blocking in mid-late March to get I-95 corridor KU (snowstorm) events….
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Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those….
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Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?
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If there was a strong west-based -NAO block along with a strong -AO showing up, then I’d say yes, there’s definitely a better chance, but none of the ensembles are showing that
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Once you get to 3/15 and beyond, it’s very late/very rare for snowstorms south of New England. Can it happen? Yes. Has it happened? Yes. Can you totally rule it out? Obviously not. Would I bet on it? No. It takes an extremely anomalous, freak event at that point
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Light Sleet/snow in Sloatsburg. 30 degrees. Roads mostly wet. Salt trucks out
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Only 14 days away on an operational model! We can do this!!!!!
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Hopefully the snow melt and projected rain going forward tames brush fire season which starts soon. 3/15-5/15 is the annual burn ban in NY to help mitigate wildfire season….
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It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave
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Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo
