Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,191

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    100%. 1997-98 peaked the final week of November then steadily weakened right through the end of March. 2015 also peaked the last week of November then steadily weakened throughout the entire winter. Twitter kept wishcasting that the weakening was going to somehow “save” that winter and it was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow the rest of the way. It also didn’t help that JB was hyping nonstop that it was a super “migrating Modoki” El Niño and said the analogs were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2014-15 for months on end in the fall and beginning of winter. The weenies bought right into that and the DT “it’s weakening” argument hook, line and sinker
  2. snowman19
    New JMA….FWIW
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    I agree. At the very least, I think we tie the record RONI and ONI, with a very good chance that we break the records on both of them. I also think this one stays east-based (maybe not as east-based as 1997-98 and 1982-83….several more months to go…..verdict still out obviously) but east-based none the less
  5. snowman19
    The normal peak time for El Niños is almost always November/December. That’s the time (November/December) that the majority of models show this one peaking
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    The new DWKW has already started: And wow! 3 TC’s have formed in less than a week in the EPAC. Historic TC season coming up there
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 @forkyfork @LakePaste25 The projected median (peak) of +3.0C RONI come November would be an all-time record on that index. The projected median (peak) of +3.4C traditional ONI, also come November, would be an all-time record as well
  10. snowman19
    No surprise in the EPAC. Super El Niño/++PMM at work. Explosive setup for a huge TC season….
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC season (TD-2 EPAC). Likely very many to follow this summer….
  13. snowman19
    Good old Steve D is going down with the ship this year I guess lol. That clown is insisting that this is only going to be a moderate to “maybe low-end strong” El Niño and that all the models, obs, data and experts are going to be dead wrong. Good Lord, that guy is the worst meteorologist in history. Total buffoon. And he’s an arrogant, stuck up, pompous asshole to boot. I can’t believe people actually waste their money to subscribe to his garbage
  14. snowman19
    The thermocline is about to deepen (drop) big time in the eastern tropical PAC. This very strongly supports this event staying east-based/East Pacific
  15. snowman19
    “No surprises in the latest NMME climate model output. Niño intensity has ticked up in a few of the models (the CanESM5 was one of the last moderate Niño holdouts last month but it's all in on a near-record event now). I think the NCAR CESM1 broke or something this month. The response looks extremely classic too. Wet anomalies across the tropical Pacific, with the NE and Central Pacific also active thanks to the +PMM. The Atlantic will be dry and hostile for basically the whole season, with drought possible in the Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will likely have a wet and stormy winter as the subtropical jet gets cranking.”
  16. snowman19
    I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based From @csnavywx “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August
  19. snowman19
    All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:
  20. snowman19
  21. snowman19
    It’s still going to be east-based Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD
  24. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:
  25. snowman19
×
×
  • Create New...