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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Run after run for months the EURO has insisted on a December peak. The new run is no different and it hasn’t backed off the all time, record-shattering peaks for regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 one iota come December:
  2. snowman19
    @so_whats_happening
  3. snowman19
    The 30C isotherm/warm pool has actually strengthened and expanded in size. The center of it is at 140W. Absolutely insane
  4. snowman19
    Very strong/super El Niños do “force” a +IOD to develop, I’d agree. It would be near impossible for one not to form with a Nino this strong. Then once it does form it constructively interferes and complements the Nino. As far as the ++PMM (Baja) this year, I believe that’s one of the main factors that caused this El Nino to be the most east-based we’ve ever seen, surpassing the previous most east-based Nino on record (1997-98). The strong +PMM/east-based Nino relationship was discussed in a research paper I shared on here back in the spring and it turned out to be correct
  5. snowman19
    And it’s getting even more of a boost from the +IOD now
  6. snowman19
    Not only more east-based than 1997-98, but way, way stronger than that super Nino was….. “Based on key metrics such as elevated moisture across the South and rainy conditions in Florida and California, this El Niño is forecast have a stronger signal by early December than events in 1982, 1997 and 2015.” @donsutherland1 @bluewave
  7. snowman19
    The +IOD atmospheric signature is clearly evident on the OLR/VP, reenforcing and constructively interfering with El Niño. And as you can see, the MC/IO is completely, totally shutdown as it has been since spring with very strong suppression and confluence from the super Nino. The +IOD is only enhancing this @donsutherland1
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    OISST RONI up to over +2.8C
  10. snowman19
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  12. snowman19
    More big warming in regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 coming up until it peaks in December. The EURO just keeps doubling down on the record-shattering SSTs it has by the beginning of December New EURO run:
  13. snowman19
    Agree. Said it yesterday, El Niño aside, IMO (could be wrong of course), the other antecedent/background conditions; strong +QBO, now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere, descending solar off last year’s max, high geomag, +IOD are all hostile to SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter. Going to have to wait and see what happens. The fact that we actually have people hyping to borderline hysteria on twitter right now that strat warmings never happen during El Niños is completely laughable and asinine. But when you look at which accounts are doing it, it makes perfect sense….
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  15. snowman19
    Commoditywx does not have an agenda. Last winter he was hyping cold runs. He’s as neutral as they come
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    It’s going to strengthen more and a classic +IOD forcing signature is showing up on the OLR charts, so it’s coupling. Question is how high does it peak next month?
  18. snowman19
    I know there will be disagreement on this but IMO, the antecedent conditions are not favorable for SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter despite the super El Nino…..descending solar coming off the max last year, high geomag, strong +QBO; still strengthening and has now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere where it can couple with the tropospheric pattern, +IOD. Very unfavorable IMO but we shall see
  19. snowman19
    That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive
  20. snowman19
    I’m not arguing, just giving my opinion. IMO that *relatively* “warm” water east of Japan isn’t going to matter as far as forcing anything, the record Nino is going to totally overwhelm it. Those “warm” North PAC waters are nowhere near as warm as the nearly 90F water in Nino region 3.4. It’s not even going to hold a candle to it and the Nino forcing is going to dominate….the latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere isn’t comparable between the two
  21. snowman19
    It would not surprise me at all to see forcing in 1+2 this winter. The SSTs are going to be more than warm enough to support convection….way warmer than 1997-98 actually. This thing is east-based as they come
  22. snowman19
    The 30C warm pool is actually at 140W. I disagree about the MC. I think the MC is going to be a complete non factor this winter. As @GaWx showed, the MC/IO has been totally non-existent since this event started in the spring, unlike 23-24 and 15-16. I think it stays that way. We also have classic +IOD forcing showing up now
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    Agree with Bluewave. Unlike 2015. the MC forcing has been totally non-existent since spring. Very 1997 like in that respect. And as far as ignoring factors more important than ENSO, there are no factors more important than the strongest super El Nino in history. It is massive and it will be the main driver this winter, by far and away, elephant in the room, totally and completely overwhelming. An overwhelming signal this absurdly strong, with record/extreme latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere from the tropical PAC is going to trump all else (weather moves west to east), it totally dominates the forcing and the global heat budget. The extratropical -PDO (with the relative warmth off Japan doesn't even hold a candle to it), the AMO, the Atlantic, the Arctic, NAO/AO…..it is going to steam roll them
  25. snowman19
    Yep. This El Niño has no resemblance whatsoever to 1997 lol
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