snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..
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With the lone exception of the end of January storm, since November, it has, by and large, been a dry winter. We are still in drought conditions and really have been since the fall of 2024…..
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Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row
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My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now
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BAMWX does this every winter, from November through March. If you noticed, once it became obvious that the arctic cold was going to moderate this month, they immediately started to hype a cold and snowy March. They know damn well how to keep the weenie’s clicks and subscription money flooding in and they know they have one more month left (March) to hype cold and snow and laugh all the way to the bank…..
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The NWS needs to take a very long, hard look at the GFS after this winter. It has been by far and away the worst performing model, no other model has been as close to being as bad. Just an utter embarrassment all winter long and needs to be addressed
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Plus extremely marginal temps for the next event. What separates this one from all the others we’ve had so far is the lack of entrenched arctic air. Wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with an all rain event
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Don’t even bother. Not worth it. He’s going to say that the experts with Master’s and Ph.D. Degrees in Meteorology and Climatology over at the CPC are dead wrong and don’t know what they’re talking about…..
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Max: 21 Min: 2 Snow: 0.5
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@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying?
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The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….
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The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA
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If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday
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Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else
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100%. The +PNA period is over and done. RIP. This month is going to be decidedly, predominantly -PNA and probably strongly so at times. These fantasies on twitter right now that the models are all going to be wrong about it and there’s going to be a ridge over the west are going to go down in flames
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The operational GFS at 280 hours….what could possibly go wrong???
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The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter…..
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Maintaining a snowpack in early-mid February is generally easy as long as temps aren’t way above freezing. Once we get to 2/21 and beyond, you start to get daytime/sun melt even when temps are below freezing
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If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important
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Even if the stratosphere doesn’t work out this month you have nothing to be upset about. You did a great job since November and were extremely accurate up to this point in time. If it doesn’t work out then oh well, you got the last 3+ months right
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Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?
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He’s the biggest moron I’ve ever come across in my life. Hands down. If you put his brain in a bird it would fly backwards and upside down
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If this was a couple of weeks from now, today’s temps would have overperformed by even more. Post 2/20 is when full sun and lack of CAA really starts to have an effect
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February as a whole is extremely likely to be another below normal temp month. That’s pretty much guaranteed at this point. As far as that extreme Wxbell/JB forecast? Done for clicks and subscription money from the weenies
