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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at this….the last 2 super El Niños (1997, 2015) at this point in time compared to this one. It’s not even close…it’s blatantly obvious we have a historic, monster event coming…..
  2. snowman19
    Here’s 1997 vs. this year, same time. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline this year sticks out like a sore thumb and like you said, we have record warm water volume this time around. We are about to leave 1997 in the dust….WWBs and DWKWs as far as the eye can see Subsurface: 1+2 SSTs: 3.4 SSTs:
  3. snowman19
    I agree Ray. I’m not understanding some of what I’m seeing on twitter calling for big west-based -NAO blocking this winter. Descending solar coming off a big max, high geomag, +QBO, super El Niño….sorry but that doesn’t scream -NAO blocking to me. But then again when you look at the account peddling that, it makes sense…..
  4. snowman19
    I think it peaks strong come November
  5. snowman19
    Here comes the +IOD….there are no road blocks ahead to stop this thing from strengthening and strengthening And with the projected TC forecasts, the WWBs and DWKWs are just going to keep coming
  6. snowman19
    Yes, this event is very east-based/EP just like 1997. In fact, 1997 is by far the best ENSO analog for this event
  7. snowman19
    Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that
  8. snowman19
    Temps and snowfall aside for a second, my beef is this utter delusional weenie crap that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow magically overwhelm a historic ++ENSO is by far and away the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life, hands down. Pure stupidity, fantasy and Land of Make Believe garbage. It completely defies the laws of physics and reality
  9. snowman19
    I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
    @donsutherland1
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    Very good point about DWKW generation now that the 30C isotherm is east of the dateline…. @LakePaste25 Highest on record for June:
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027 The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    @Gawx
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month. It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks This is a textbook east-based (EP) event: And that OHC….wow
  20. snowman19
    As suspected, given the super El Niño/++PMM, the EPAC tropical cyclone season is shaping up to be a blockbuster In other news, even the notoriously too cool CDAS daily has region 1+2 at almost +3.5C now And it has region 3.4 on the verge of +2.0C
  21. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is just going to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content:
  22. snowman19
    Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east @Gawx Edit: The new OHC is up to +2.5C and climbing
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  24. snowman19
    Here comes the next monster WWB
  25. snowman19
    With the last 3 super El Niños, (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), the last region to go back to ENSO neutral was region 1+2. That region stayed in a strong El Niño until spring in all 3, while the other regions went back to neutral first
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