snowman19

It looks like you are going to have to be 40+ miles N and NW of NYC (Orange, Sussex, Putnam) to get into accumulating snow from this one

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant

If the +EPO/AK vortex happens then yea, it’s eventually going to scour out the arctic cold from Canada and the CONUS and we’re going to get Pacific origin air. The +PNA and -NAO would prevent it from getting really warm in the east, but since we are at the mercy of the PAC, the -NAO block would trap the PAC air underneath

@donsutherland1 Out of curiosity, do you have any temp/precip composites for +EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO Decembers?

The EPS and and GEPS caved to the GEFS on the +EPO/Alaskan vortex by the 2nd week of December, but they go +PNA/-NAO so it keeps the east under a trough GEFS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025112900&fh=288&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 GEPS, EPS:

And just to add to this, if (IF) the GEFS is correct that a +EPO/Alaskan vortex pattern takes shape the 2nd week of December, it makes perfect sense that there will still be cold in the CONUS and Canada at that point. It’s not a light switch flip to immediate warmth, that would come later. A +EPO would cut off cross-polar flow and the Pacific floodgates would open. It would take some time for all the cold to get scoured out of Canada and the CONUS but it would happen, again, assuming the GEFS has the right idea @donsutherland1 Edit: @brooklynwx99 Yes it would be serviceable for awhile until the cold got scoured out, but eventually all a -NAO block would do in the GEFS scenario (+EPO/AK vortex) is trap Pacific maritime air underneath the block

That wasn’t my point. I was responding to Don’s post that the GEFS is insistent on a +EPO pattern taking hold the 2nd week of December, which it clearly is. It’s putting a huge vortex over Alaska and has been for several runs in a row

The GEFS is insistent on putting a huge 500dm vortex right over Alaska the 2nd week of December. Several runs in a row now https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2025112812&fh=282&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That proves absolutely nothing. It is still a classic wave reflection event. Nothing has changed. It’s nowhere close to a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split. Read the tweets I posted from real meteorologists. But if you want to believe the hype from a quack from PA who failed out of met school, go right ahead

“It is wrong to think that the weak polar vortex is having effects on the weather. It is a misreading of the situation. There is no vertical propagation from the high stratosphere. At 150 hPa it is the response of the lower stratosphere to the tropospheric dynamics that dominate” “You can have a polar vortex as weak as you want, but it remains just a definition (if the jet doesn't pass at 60°N..); if there is no propagation, it has no effects. The only thing is that a weak vortex is a preconditioning factor but not a determining one.”

The meteorologist who posted that tweet is actually a huge cold/snow weenie and usually finds any excuse to go cold/snowy. He is actually the furthest thing from a warmista. As far as the MJO going into a clean phase 8 with amplitude, without any destructive interference from the standing wave by the Maritime Continent….I’ll believe it when I see it. We have played this game before with MJO phase 8 (23-24) and we lost badly. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but as of right now, color me skeptical

I’m not saying they won’t and it’s very possible we see a full scale shift next year with the Nino. My point is that the cooling you are seeing right now is due to the very persistent and strong convection, which is to be expected with the standing wave there. Although they have cooled, there are still anomalies of +30C, which is why the convection is there in the first place, the atmosphere always places it over the warmest waters due to evaporation and latent/sensible heat release

The waters are cooling there in the short term due to persistent strong convection in that area from the standing wave

There’s a standing wave there (near Maritime Continent). Not hard to figured out why either with +30C SSTs. Thermodynamics 101. The atmosphere will always put the strongest and most persistent convection over the warmest waters…..

@40/70 Benchmark As you and @Bluewave suspected…..

I hate even typing or mentioning his name because I feel like my IQ drops just doing it, but I literally have no words for the absolutely asinine wishcast from Mark Margavage that there is going to be a major SSWE and a total wind reversal by Christmas. Not grounded in any semblance of reality. It’s not even worth discussing that idiocy from a man who failed out of meteorology school and does stolen valor/blatant lying, claiming to be a degreed professional met who’s a “winter weather expert”. It’s a total disgrace and the type of complete garbage I’d expect from a bozo like him

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

@forkyfork Thoughts on next week’s storm?

You are expecting the flip to happen mid-late January still?

It’s becoming more and more obvious where this is heading, despite the run to run changes on the long range ensembles….the stratospheric warming/wave reflection event happens then the SPV reconsolidates and strengthens quickly going into mid-late December. You, @so_whats_happening @donsutherland1 and @bluewave did a very good job explaining the expected MJO progression. Once we get towards mid-December, it is looking very likely that the Alaskan ridge regime retrogrades to an Aleutian ridge regime, the EPO goes +, a healthy -PNA pops and the SE ridge pumps

A big part of the problem nowadays is flooding the general public with unrealistic expectations, then when it fails, they lose all trust in the “weathermen”. We have pro mets (no not on here) blindly hyping “MJO phase 8!!!”, speaking in declaratives without any context like it’s always a guaranteed magical light switch and using/hyping extreme analogs like December, 1983, December 1989 and December, 2010, telling people that it’s going to be a redux. When the public sees that and it ends up failing, they lose trust in the profession

@40/70 Benchmark @Donsutherland1 @Bluewave They are finally admitting the obvious… “A stratospheric wave-reflection event is becoming more likely. Energy that had been expected to propagate into the stratosphere and weaken the vortex now appears more likely to reflect back into the troposphere. This often strengthens the Atlantic jet stream and can trigger a rapid recovery in the stratospheric vortex. This is likely why recent modelling has shifted toward a more zonal pattern compared with earlier expectations. If this occurs, and we see downward coupling from the stratosphere into the troposphere during December, then even with supportive background signals for blocking, stronger westerlies aloft could flatten the pattern and favour a more zonal setup significantly reducing the risk of sustained blocking or cold.”

The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) want to retrograde the Alaskan ridge (-EPO) to an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) by the beginning of the 2nd week of December. So you end up with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA setup. It’s been a consistent theme for several cycles now

Coldest week so far in this La Niña event in regions 3.4 and 4…

Shocker! Wild run to run swings and flip flopping on the CFS