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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    Commoditywx does not have an agenda. Last winter he was hyping cold runs. He’s as neutral as they come
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    It’s going to strengthen more and a classic +IOD forcing signature is showing up on the OLR charts, so it’s coupling. Question is how high does it peak next month?
  5. snowman19
    I know there will be disagreement on this but IMO, the antecedent conditions are not favorable for SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter despite the super El Nino…..descending solar coming off the max last year, high geomag, strong +QBO; still strengthening and has now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere where it can couple with the tropospheric pattern, +IOD. Very unfavorable IMO but we shall see
  6. snowman19
    That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive
  7. snowman19
    I’m not arguing, just giving my opinion. IMO that *relatively* “warm” water east of Japan isn’t going to matter as far as forcing anything, the record Nino is going to totally overwhelm it. Those “warm” North PAC waters are nowhere near as warm as the nearly 90F water in Nino region 3.4. It’s not even going to hold a candle to it and the Nino forcing is going to dominate….the latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere isn’t comparable between the two
  8. snowman19
    It would not surprise me at all to see forcing in 1+2 this winter. The SSTs are going to be more than warm enough to support convection….way warmer than 1997-98 actually. This thing is east-based as they come
  9. snowman19
    The 30C warm pool is actually at 140W. I disagree about the MC. I think the MC is going to be a complete non factor this winter. As @GaWx showed, the MC/IO has been totally non-existent since this event started in the spring, unlike 23-24 and 15-16. I think it stays that way. We also have classic +IOD forcing showing up now
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
    Agree with Bluewave. Unlike 2015. the MC forcing has been totally non-existent since spring. Very 1997 like in that respect. And as far as ignoring factors more important than ENSO, there are no factors more important than the strongest super El Nino in history. It is massive and it will be the main driver this winter, by far and away, elephant in the room, totally and completely overwhelming. An overwhelming signal this absurdly strong, with record/extreme latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere from the tropical PAC is going to trump all else (weather moves west to east), it totally dominates the forcing and the global heat budget. The extratropical -PDO (with the relative warmth off Japan doesn't even hold a candle to it), the AMO, the Atlantic, the Arctic, NAO/AO…..it is going to steam roll them
  12. snowman19
    Yep. This El Niño has no resemblance whatsoever to 1997 lol
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive
  15. snowman19
    We disagree but that’s ok
  16. snowman19
    I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998
  17. snowman19
    This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:
  18. snowman19
    Just a friendly disagreement, I think the forcing is actually going to end up to the east of the super El Niño composites because of the anomalously (record) east 30C warm pool. It is going to alter the global heat budget and shift the main forcing IMO
  19. snowman19
    The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks: ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C
  20. snowman19
    +12C subsurface is ridiculous. I’m thinking the subsurface peaks around +13C/+14C The fact that we reached an absolute temperature of 30C in region 3.4 and over +5C in region 1+2 are equally as ridiculous stats
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
    This WWB is record-breaking, much, much stronger and much further east than the massive one we had back in October, 1997. It’s going to spawn another DWKW and cause a big warming burst again in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4
  23. snowman19
    Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”
  24. snowman19
    This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015
  25. snowman19
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