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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    !!
  3. snowman19
    This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm. This El Niño is going to go off the rails strengthening next month, would not surprise me if it goes super in August….
  4. snowman19
    It’s blatantly obvious at this point that this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño since 1950 at the very least….likely the strongest in history
  5. snowman19
    We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    Here is the latest sea level height rise anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC. The only comparable El Niño event since 1980 at this point in time is 1997
  8. snowman19
    Yes. It is extremely well coupled….SOI, OLR/standing wave convection, WWBs/westerlies and GLAAM. Once the +IOD really going the coupling is only going to increase more Record high GLAAM:
  9. snowman19
    That didn’t last long….SOI right back down to almost -20
  10. snowman19
    WWB time:
  11. snowman19
    You almost forgot 57-58 and 65-66 lol Every time there’s an El Niño, no mater what, the weenie’s fantasy analogs are: 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15!!! As predictable as the rising sun!
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    This TC/MJO progression is going to initiate a massive WWB with a constructively interfering ERW at the end of this month into July. Another (new) DWKW guaranteed to follow. And we have a developing +IOD. I’m more convinced than ever that this event will easily be stronger than any El Niño we’ve seen since 1950 in both RONI and traditional ONI
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    All the January, 1998 -NAO/-AO did was trap Pacific air underneath the blocks
  16. snowman19
    Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally)
  17. snowman19
    The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September
  18. snowman19
    +8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997
  19. snowman19
    Out of the last 3 super El Niños (82-83, 97-98, 15-16), with the exception of the obvious +PDO back then, this current El Niño structure, intensity, along with the ++PMM, most closely resembles 1997 at this point in time
  20. snowman19
    The El Niño standing wave/forcing around the dateline has become extremely well pronounced with organized and strong, persistent convection in that area. Negative OLR and negative CHI200 anomalies are really showing up now, indicating the strengthening of organized deep convection and upper tropospheric divergence…. @GaWx Given that the MEI is a measurement of SSTs, sea level pressure (which includes SOI in part of that measurement), surface winds and OLR, my guess is that it continues to rise at the current record-breaking pace on the next update
  21. snowman19
    Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up
  22. snowman19
    If the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W (like the Copernicus is forecasting to happen by November), you aren’t going to have to worry about it. I think these big WWBs/DWKWs cause that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool to discharge and slosh east this time. This event isn’t playing
  23. snowman19
    Region 3.4 is off the charts for this time of year, region 1+2 has pushed over +3C. And this is with more strong WWBs and DWKWs to come. And there’s +8C anomalies in the equatorial subsurface in the EPAC, just staggering. If the EURO Copernicus is correct, the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W by November, which is record breaking, totally unprecedented. The current all time record for that is 155W…..
  24. snowman19
    I don’t think it will. Just posted about it, but we have yet another very strong WWB forecasted for the end of this month. That will initiate another DWKW. I think these WWBs end up pushing the entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool east. The new EURO Copernicus multi-model run has the 30C isotherm pushing all the way east to 140W by November
  25. snowman19
    Region 1+2 pushing over +3C Yet another new WWB projected
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