snowman19

The op EURO/EPS was absolutely awful with its big west-based -NAO block it kept insisting on for days, run after run for early-mid January, which is totally gone now. A really bad performance with that

As of now, I’m seriously doubting that we see -NAO blocking to go along with the anticipated -EPO/+TNH pattern later this month. +TNH very strongly favors a +NAO/+AO/SE ridge regime as both @40/70 Benchmark and Eric Webb mused. Also, @StormchaserChuck1 found a very strong tendency for a positive NAO when the EPO is negative the last 10 years….

Nice write up. I think the -EPO/+TNH just after mid-month into late January is real. I also think the cold is real. The risk again would be the +NAO/+AO/SE ridge tendency that comes along with a +TNH regime. I can see a gradient type pattern with overrunning events and SWFEs. The question, as always, will be where does the gradient set up? New England would obviously be the safest on the cold side in such a gradient pattern. Probably can get a better idea of how it’s going to play out the next couple of weeks

All about the clout. Guaranteed, 100%, come mid-late January they completely change their February forecast to very cold and very snowy from the Midwest/Lakes to the east coast no matter what. No doubt in my mind. They need the subscription money to keep coming in. They’re in too deep now. They’ve turned into a franchise that’s all about the like clicks, subscription money, views, follows and retweets like a few others are. It’s a shame…..

What a God awful performance by the op EURO and EPS on that big west-based -NAO block for early-mid January. Epic failure. Good lord did they fuck that model up with the “update” years back. It’s sad

Yep and he also followed up with this tweet…the +AO (aka “NAM”) and +NAO with SE ridge risk:

Therein lies the risk if we do in fact see a +TNH pattern take over just after mid-January….the AO (NAM). Here’s Eric’s new tweet on it, but +TNH favors the AO going positive along with the NAO going positive. And you already mentioned the SE ridge risk with it

t’s starting to look like a +TNH (-EPO) develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying. IF said +TNH pattern (-EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge) develops just after mid-month into late January, it would argue for overrunning events and SWFEs. The question then becomes does it favor New England? Or PHL/NYC north into New England?

To add to this, IF said +TNH pattern (-EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge) develops just after mid-month into late January, it would argue for overrunning events and SWFEs. The question then becomes does it favor New England? Or PHL/NYC north into New England?

It’s starting to look like a +TNH develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying….

While I’m certainly on board with January being another colder than normal month in the east, due to the front-loaded Niña we are in, which would fit the progression, that’s where I think it stops. At least that’s my thought right now. I’m not sure what BAMWX thinks about February and March? I know there’s some hype on twitter today about the new CFS being very cold in the east for the next 3 months; Jan, Feb and Mar….I just don’t see that happening. We haven’t seen a La Niña accomplish that (all 5 months in a row; Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) being below normal cold in over 30 years (1995-96). That was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO all winter long. As I said before, the only way I could possibly see that happening would be with a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup like 2018 had. I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks

You were right about the late November into January cold. No denying that. You were also right about the snowy periods in December, no denying that either. BTW, i never thought there was going to be a torch for one second, however, I did doubt the level of cold and the amount of snow NYC saw this month, true. That said, I can see the cold continuing through January, but I vehemently disagree that we are going to see this below normal cold pattern continue through February and March. 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row of below normal cold in this new climate especially? Color me very skeptical. A La Niña hasn’t done that in over 30 years…..since 1995-96 and that was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO. From the new post on my thoughts in the ENSO thread: “So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic La Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)”

So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), like you think might happen, to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)…..

Hi Kettle, I’m Pot, you’re black….

Either the GEFS is about to score one of its biggest coups ever or it’s about to go down in an epic dumpster fire

Still FROPA. Extremely minimal QPF

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? EDiT: @SnowGoose69 The GEFS doubled down and got stronger on the -PNA next month. It’s either going to score a really huge coup against the EPS or it’s going to go down in flames. Those two models aren’t even in the same universe right now

Arctic FROPA’s tend to squeeze whatever little bit of moisture there is out of the atmosphere when they pass. There may be some dustings/coatings in parts of the area, but that’s about it. As you said, we normally end up getting the downsloping NW flow off the Apps which usually dries the snow showers and squalls out

My opinion…..Given the that this La Niña has been a classic, front-loaded event up to this point, I would not be surprised by a colder than normal January, we’ve been colder than normal since November. That said, I would definitely be shocked if Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar are all colder than normal. Color me very skeptical of all 5 months in a row being below normal for temps. We haven’t seen a La Niña do that since 1995-96 (which was a very anomalous, atypical Niña with a strong +PDO) and I just don’t see that happening

FROPA

Has anyone seen or heard from @Allsnow? He’s usually very active on here during the winter. I really hope he’s ok. Very unusual not to see him posting

Given the amount of rock salt and calcium they dumped all over the roads yesterday, I doubt we see a big widespread freezing rain fest. It takes very anomalous conditions for those anyway and that’s why they are so rare around here

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past