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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    All the January, 1998 -NAO/-AO did was trap Pacific air underneath the blocks
  3. snowman19
    Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally)
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September
  6. snowman19
    +8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997
  7. snowman19
    Out of the last 3 super El Niños (82-83, 97-98, 15-16), with the exception of the obvious +PDO back then, this current El Niño structure, intensity, along with the ++PMM, most closely resembles 1997 at this point in time
  8. snowman19
    The El Niño standing wave/forcing around the dateline has become extremely well pronounced with organized and strong, persistent convection in that area. Negative OLR and negative CHI200 anomalies are really showing up now, indicating the strengthening of organized deep convection and upper tropospheric divergence…. @GaWx Given that the MEI is a measurement of SSTs, sea level pressure (which includes SOI in part of that measurement), surface winds and OLR, my guess is that it continues to rise at the current record-breaking pace on the next update
  9. snowman19
    The Bjerknes feedback started last month. And those typhoons are only going to amplify the WWBs/westerlies behind them, in their wake. We are witnessing a historic event that will be remembered for many, many years to come
  10. snowman19
    Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up
  11. snowman19
    If the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W (like the Copernicus is forecasting to happen by November), you aren’t going to have to worry about it. I think these big WWBs/DWKWs cause that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool to discharge and slosh east this time. This event isn’t playing
  12. snowman19
    Region 3.4 is off the charts for this time of year, region 1+2 has pushed over +3C. And this is with more strong WWBs and DWKWs to come. And there’s +8C anomalies in the equatorial subsurface in the EPAC, just staggering. If the EURO Copernicus is correct, the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W by November, which is record breaking, totally unprecedented. The current all time record for that is 155W…..
  13. snowman19
    I don’t think it will. Just posted about it, but we have yet another very strong WWB forecasted for the end of this month. That will initiate another DWKW. I think these WWBs end up pushing the entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool east. The new EURO Copernicus multi-model run has the 30C isotherm pushing all the way east to 140W by November
  14. snowman19
    Region 1+2 pushing over +3C Yet another new WWB projected
  15. snowman19
    And? Your point? You’re another one of the snow and cold obsessed weenie assholes I’m going to throughly enjoy watching squirm this winter. It’s going to be 7th Heaven trolling you and the others all winter long. A dream come true. Can’t wait to see your tears. Have a beautiful day
  16. snowman19
    It’s going to be so much fun watching your snow and cold obsessed weenie ass squirm this winter. Seeing your disappointment is going to be amazing. Not going to lie, I’m going to get immense joy, laughter and satisfaction out of it. I can’t wait, looking forward to it! Lmfaoooooo
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    And this is quite the WWB….
  19. snowman19
    IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record
  20. snowman19
    And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….
  21. snowman19
    “Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making[emoji409][emoji91] Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event. According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History[emoji91] Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below- 1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c. This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events) 2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months[emoji3062][emoji409]”
  22. snowman19
    There’s also a big divergence with 2015…this one is way more east-based than 2015 was
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    Yep. And warming off the coast of South America has been increasing rapidly over the last week
  25. snowman19
    +8C in the subsurface is ridiculous. The warming at the surface has also been staggering
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