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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2074089660733661350?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  2. snowman19
    Unlike 2015, region 4 is actually consistently cooling. Crankywxguy pointed this out the other day. It is nowhere near as warm as 2015, not even close. This is the animation since April, with a consistent, pronounced cooling in region 4. It’s actually on the verge of dropping below weak El Niño levels to neutral/La Nada @roardog
  3. snowman19
    New July BOM model run for region 3.4 and region 3
  4. snowman19
    Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns
  5. snowman19
  6. snowman19
    The difference between this Nino and 2023, even 2015 are night and day. We have seen a complete trade wind reversal this year along with relentless WWBs/westerlies since April and it’s going to continue as far as the eye can see, augmented by the TC’s and the MJO progression this month. This year, unlike 2023 or even 2015 for that matter, we are seeing the WWBs and DWKWs easily propagating east of the dateline. 2023 and 2015 actually saw EWBs even up to this point in time and the trade winds just kept fighting back….this year….nope, not even close. @csnavywx pointed this out about a month ago. This El Niño is just going to continue to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content with nothing to counter it, right through this fall
  7. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2073779464975098028?s=20 Also of note, the EURO, once again, shows a strong +IOD this fall and it keeps the ++PMM going
  8. snowman19
    Regardless of what happens with November and January, the signal for this coming December based on the last 46 years (1980) of climo for El Niño/+QBO, very strongly favors that month being warmer than normal
  9. snowman19
    @Gawx Here comes the +AAM surge
  10. snowman19
    Deep -OLR between 170E and 120W indicates El Niño standing wave convection in the central Pacific, convection is way more intense than normal, this also shows upper level divergence in that area, while the +OLR over Indonesia, indicates upper level convergence and suppression/subsidence. This is all consistent with a flip of the Walker circulation and very strong El Niño coupling (ocean-atmosphere); Bjerknes feedback
  11. snowman19
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  13. snowman19
    Yea, not a surprise since the EPAC tropical season doesn’t normally get going in full force until July, normal climo. All indications are that this is going to be a huge EPAC TC season
  14. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC parade…..
  15. snowman19
    My guess is that the EURO’s July update on Sunday is also off the charts @Stormchaserchuck1 The equatorial subsurface in the EPAC is ridiculous
  16. snowman19
    The WPAC is already extremely active with TC’s for sure, but it looks like the EPAC is about to explode with TC’s. In addition to the trade wind reversal and MJO activity, this is going to cause relentless WWBs/westerlies in the weeks and months to come…and with another huge DWKW getting ready to load up, there is no more doubt at this point, this El Niño is going historic ^ “As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal. By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic.”
  17. snowman19
    ^ “The timing of the last downwelling wave in the loop in 1998 makes that event stronger subsurface, but not across much of the surface. The present event will also grow its own oceanic Kelvin wave response over the next few weeks, thereby probably catching up to the subsurface signal.”
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2072662703483584797?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw ^ “The east Pacific subsurface is now a little behind 1997 at the same time in terms of temperature anomaly amplitude, and the 29 degree isotherm is not as far east. But there is a 30C isotherm this year, and the 28 degree isotherm is farther east than in 1997. Strong recent westerlies and westerlies over the next couple of weeks will continue to advance conditions. The different timings between 1997 subseasonal signals and those this year may explain some of the differences.”
  20. snowman19
    No coincidence that we saw the twin/triplet tropical cyclones back in April with this super El Niño. A whole parade of them are expected to form this month, keeping the WWBs/westerlies going in their wake as far as the eye can see….
  21. snowman19
    ^ “El Niño continues to mature, with ongoing and persistent westerly wind anomalies across the Central Pacific. It looks like trades will slacken over the East Pacific in the next couple weeks, allowing warmth to continue propagating east. This is a rather east-based event so far, with Niño 1+2 up over 3.5C already! Models continue to show an impressive peak, with even the relative index (RONI) from CFS forecast to peak over 3C.” Up to +2.3C: Massive WWB in progress:
  22. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS
  23. snowman19
    NOAA has raised the scale again:
  24. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2071636498290458888?s=20 Back up to +2.25C:
  25. snowman19
    One thing I’m very, very confident in as far as winter, is a much warmer than normal to “torch” December this year because of what myself, @GaWx and you already discussed….the very strong correlation over the last 46 years (since 1980) of +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers being a slam dunk signal for warmth…literally 6 out of the last 6 were warm….
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