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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. Huge SOI crash continuing, strongly negative. -30’s for the last 3 days. 30 day average is negative and continuing to fall
  2. If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
  3. Big signal for a strong +IOD development this summer, which will constructively interfere with El Niño
  4. 1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter
  5. The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative
  6. These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:
  7. These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..
  8. The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……
  9. Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat
  10. This is indicative of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) El Niño and Bjerknes feedback taking control:
  11. From DT: **ALERT ** SUPER EL NINO LIKELY JULY 2026- MARCH 2027 COULD be strongest EVER !
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