snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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At this point the only things off the table IMO are a cutter or runner. I think the only 2 questions that remain are is this a hit? Or is it south/OTS? With 5-6 days to go, either one is certainly possible
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IMO this is either a hit or south and OTS. Warm/cutter or runner is off the table. Extremely confident in that
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Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run
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Yep. Then it goes full on historic blizzard with a deep freeze right after. If it’s correct (big IF), it would totally shut down and cripple NYC for days, if not a week
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The CMC is also trying to turn Fri-Sat into an event followed by one of the biggest blizzards in NYC metro area history. If that’s correct, it would completely cripple the area for days on end, probably over a week
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Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
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Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now
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It’s not worth taking any of these model runs seriously until Wednesday and Thursday no matter what they show
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I don’t know what to make of Sun-Mon TBH. @bluewave did a write up on the pattern that’s going to be place at that point this morning over in the NYC forum
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Not saying it can’t happen, but the models have been awful with showing the MJO propagating into phase 8 since late November only to have it fail. I guess all we can do is wait and see if it holds and is real this time
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Show me where I predicted a super La Niña or a blowtorch you utter clown. Remember your epic bust with MJO phase 8 for 30 days back in December? @MJO812 Enjoy the rain this coming week
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Nope. As usual, you are dead wrong. Par for the course with you
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If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++
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If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++
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Lol it’s an inch of snow (maybe) that’s going to be gone by tomorrow afternoon when it gets into the 40’s
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The trend for over a year now since the drought pattern started has been for the models to show a lot of QPF at range only to drop it significantly as we get closer in time. The overall dryness since September, 2024 has been staggering, we’ve left the 2001-02 drought in the dust, it’s not even close
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We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night
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No it’s not
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This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts.
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It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss/scraper, calling it now EDIT: not just no support, ZERO GEFS support
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The EPS-AI doesn’t support the EURO-AI run. Huge red flag. It didn’t change one iota from 6z actually
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It’s the 6z ICON vs. the universe right now. My guess is that its 12z run goes right back to the miss it showed at 0z
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Summary of 0z tonight: GFS: miss EURO: miss CMC: miss ICON: miss UKMET: miss NAM: miss RGEM: miss RRFS: miss GFS AI: miss EURO AI: miss EPS: miss GEFS: miss GEPS: miss EPS AI: miss UKMET ensemble: miss
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The ICON is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between a miss and a miss…..
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Now he loves the EURO. As predictable as the rising sun
