snowman19

Here comes more WWBs. I think this is going to be a record-breaking TC season in the PAC….

Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated

In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history

Nino Region 1+2 SSTs are exploding as the 1st kelvin waves are breaking at the South American coast and have begun surfacing And the area of +6C in the subsurface is expanding rapidly

“The downwelling Kelvin Wave over the Central Pacific is now slightly stronger than previous events (1997 and 2015) were at the same approximate longitude. There's also yet another downwelling wave yet to propagate east from the WPAC (driven by the last westerly wind burst). With weak trade winds forecast across the Pacific the next two weeks, there will be nothing to attenuate these Kelvin Waves, so they will continue to propagate east and lead to rapid warming of the Central and East Pacific as we progress into #ElNiño.”

In the 2 days since this post, the projected next WWB is gaining strength on the models. It is going to spawn even more TC’s with the associated WWBs in their wake. IMO a super El Niño is getting very close to being a lock

Paul Roundy says this is going to be the strongest DWKW in history Very rapid surface warming in the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) has started. +5C anomalies showing up at the surface now OHC is exploding too, up to +1.90C. This is from a South American meteorologist: ^Translation: “04/22/26 Sub-surface thermal structure in the tropical equatorial Pacific. - Warm Water Volume +1.90C (increase) - #KelvinWave strengthening++ - #SubsurfaceHeating continues, emerges to the surface along the equatorial Pacific.”

+6C subsurface anomalies showing up now

@bluewave

Models still showing a robust +IOD developing over the coming months

That’s from the massive DWKW Paul Roundy and Eric Webb talked about over the weekend. It’s going to advect and slosh east through Ekman pumping just like they all do.

In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back

Here comes the next WWB and downwelling KW for May. It is also likely to spawn more big TC’s with the associated WWBs behind them…..

Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution. As per that research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

^”See the magenta in the middle of the map? That’s alert level 4 of 5 for bleaching in the #Galapagos. Common in El Niño (or in this case developing) where cool water upwelling slows/ stops and surface waters significantly warm. The sea surface temp anomaly is +3-4°C (~6°F). That’s why life suffers there every El Niño, esp. east based episodes Thanks @NOAACoral”

Yet another WWB is loading up for early May….

Yep good point we are warmer today. And AGW is increasing the frequency of super El Ninos