snowman19

If we do in fact end up below 100 ACE, I think we need to seriously reconsider the 3 main factors the majority of people use for tropical seasonal forecasts…..ENSO state, MDR SSTs and the overall AMO state

If we finish this season below 100 ACE I for one will not be the least bit surprised

Soil moisture very low across the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

@stormchaserchuck1 Your speculation on the -PDO/-ENSO link that late September and October would turn warm appears to be coming to fruition. It also looks like a continued dry pattern for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

The time has come to admit that this is not going to be a hyperactive (ACE/named storms) Atlantic tropical season. The ship has sailed folks

Looks like the Niña/-IOD standing wave has set up

Correct

The current SSTs in the WPAC match several other years that went on to see +WPO winters

Yes, that was a big part of HM’s disco on this topic (-QBO/-ENSO resulting in a flat Aleutian ridge and +QBO/-ENSO resulting in a poleward Aleutian high). He actually went into a very detailed disco with a bunch of images in his blog. Shame I can’t find it anymore to share on here

The last true DC-PHL-NYC-BOS corridor KU snowstorms were back in February, 2021. It shutdown at the end of that month, never to be heard from again

This was mentioned extensively last fall….the research showing that +QBO/-ENSO causes a more poleward Aleutian High, while -QBO/-ENSO causes a more flattened, equatorial Aleutian Ridge. HM had a blog on this many years ago, which unfortunately I can’t find the link to anymore. IF this research is correct, then we will see it come “cold season” (Nov-Mar).

The east coast, from the mid-atlantic up to the northeast is very quickly going into full on drought conditions again. Been dry as hell since August 1st. Shades of last fall

The bizarre MJO behavior continues

Unlike last year when we were in a +AAM regime, this year we are and have been in a strong -AAM, so definitely much more Niña like in that respect @so_whats_happening Australia’s BOM has changed its parameters for La Niña classification:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Lack of eastward MJO propagation, -IOD and persistent strong trades has lead to a deep -AAM and La Niña like regime

Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts….

@Gawx This may well turn into the strongest -IOD event since 1917 and 1933….

I would agree that 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime pattern. It was one of the most, if not the most anomalous, persistent +TNH patterns on record. Extremely unlikely to see such an anomalous +TNH pattern again, especially within 12 years…..

Home come? Because 2nd year Niña’s very strongly favor -PNA

I can see -EPO. +PNA? Not really

IMO a ton of cooling has to happen in the northwest PAC over an extended period of time this fall. The cooling pattern has to be sustained over a long time. Let’s see what happens. SSTs that far above normal do feedback into the pattern and alter the global heat budget. If we were talking about anomalies of +2 or +3, then yes, I’d agree that it’s not feeding back, but this incredibly warm? I think the latent and sensible heat release absolutely does alter the global long wave pattern and is a very important factor like @donsutherland1 pointed out @bluewave

A ton has to shift for 13-14 to be a good analog. Besides the anemic Atlantic tropical season, low arctic sea ice and the cold North Atlantic SSTA, I see very little matching up. No -IOD, as you pointed out the PDO is so far from a match it’s not funny, that was a Victoria mode (basically +PDO alignment) back in 2013, it was +QBO, solar/geomag was rising off of a solar minimum, no La Niña back then; cold-neutral, no -PMM. Since the PDO cooling over the last 2 weeks in the northwest PAC was brought up yesterday, yes it cooled, but it started cooling at over staggering +11F SST anomalies there and as has already been stated by @bluewave those record warm anomalies are very deep in the subsurface. Here is the latest OISST, look at how insanely warm the anomalies still are: