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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    “A strong MJO pulse (part of what helped spawn #Sinlaku) is traversing the Pacific and will move towards Central America. As a result, trade winds will slow across the Central and East Pacific in the next two weeks. I expect we will see some fairly rapid warming of ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3 as a result, with a lot of sub-surface heat lurking from the last downwelling Kelvin Wave. On top of warming already ongoing, the East/Central Pacific may start to look very El-Niño-like shortly.”
  2. snowman19
    Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)
  3. snowman19
    This is starting to look like a lock for a “high-end” strong El Niño at the very minimum
  4. snowman19
    @Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”
  5. snowman19
    Yea. ENSO events normally take time
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  10. snowman19
    This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC
  11. snowman19
    Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095
  12. snowman19
    @bluewave Holy ++PMM
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    Huge SOI crash continuing, strongly negative. -30’s for the last 3 days. 30 day average is negative and continuing to fall
  15. snowman19
    If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
  16. snowman19
    Big signal for a strong +IOD development this summer, which will constructively interfere with El Niño
  17. snowman19
    1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter
  18. snowman19
    The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative
  19. snowman19
    These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:
  20. snowman19
    These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..
  21. snowman19
    The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……
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  23. snowman19
    Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat
  24. snowman19
    @Bluewave
  25. snowman19
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