snowman19

The upcoming -NAO (Christmas week into New Year’s week) is projected to be east-based, in addition, the PAC looks like straight garbage and you have a huge omega ridge dead center of the CONUS, an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) with a +EPO and a very strong -PNA. So if you are looking to stay cool and avoid a “torch” in the east, that will work out fine then, the -NAO will keep the east cool, no “torch”. If you are looking for east coast snowstorms/nor’easters, it looks absolutely awful

I’m not seeing a way out (yet) from a canonical Niña February, I’ll reserve my final opinion once we are into January. That said, if there is in fact a major SSWE in February like you think there will be, with the lag, I would think that would/could affect March more so than February, especially if it occurs closer to mid-February (i.e. 2018)

It’s an east-based -NAO

We are and have been in a classic, canonical La Niña pattern since September 1st. It’s been fitting a “front-end loaded” Niña to a tee up to this point in time…..

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990. No exaggeration, they are extremely ugly

I believe @bluewave discussed the possibility of that happening (SE ridge hooking up with the -NAO) last week. A -PNA would definitely make that possibility more likely as you said

I wasn’t born yet lol but looking back on the weather history, the 1989-90 winter was probably (easily) the most extreme pattern flip we’ve seen in the last 50 years. We went from a record cold arctic tundra starting in November right through the end of December, then got a big cutter on New Year’s Eve and that was all she wrote, light switch flip to an unmitigated torch for all of January and February….

The Niña is going to reach its peak soon. This is the coldest reading in region 3.4 we’ve seen for this entire event

The 1989-90 winter saw what was probably the biggest complete pattern flip in the last 50+ years. We went from a record cold arctic ice box from November through the end of December, then there was a big cutter on New Year’s Eve and a light switch flip to a full on torch for all of January and February

Interesting stats. I think what saved 2016-17 was the +PDO and the Nino “hangover”. Had the PDO been negative that winter, I think the results may have been different….just my opinion. It was also almost a 2nd year El Niño….the strong -IOD caused the La Niña to develop, had it not been for that, I have no doubt that would have been a double dip El Niño

@40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 La Nina peaking within the next 2 weeks or so?

NYC area final totals from yesterday’s storm

Yep. I was wrong, will gladly admit it. I never thought the trough would end up going neutral tilt. Congrats on the snow everyone

Ok Rain Man lol

Unhinged isn’t the word. That was psychotic. Completely mental. Truly terrifying. Wishing death and suicide on people over the weather. I seriously hope he gets the psychiatric help he obviously, desperately needs

I’ve actually admitted my bias several times, maybe you have reading comprehension problems or memory issues? Others remind me of it all the time too. And nice language by the way in your previous post. Dropping f-bombs will really get your point across. How low class

Just keep predicting it like you always do, you’ll get it right eventually! Then when the inevitable one hits, take credit for your great forecast! “I called it!” All you ever do is predict major cold and major snow, MJO phase 8, SSWE’s, big SPV disruptions, huge blocking and how La Niña is going to fall apart, winter after winter. And since 2022-23, you have been failing miserably with the lone exception of last winter’s cold. You were “right” by default. Then you attack me

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!!

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

Who on here said the word torch? As far as cold wedging, central and northern New England? Sure. NYC is not going to escape the warmup, it’s coming. Gradient patterns favor New England, not NYC, although some on here think NYC is the new Fort Kent, Maine and go into full blown panic attacks and defense/attack mode if anyone dares mentions the words “NYC” and “warmup” in the same sentence. Guess it interferes with their wishcasts of non stop, unabated cold and snowstorms from November through the end of March

Can’t wait for the inevitable weenie “it’s only warm aloft!!” proclamations. Right out of the JB playbook. Chapter One

The NYC metro area is going to warm up. We are not New England

@40/70 Benchmark Mark Moregarbage’s wishcast of a major SSWE, full wind reversal, a SPV split, MJO phase 8, arctic cold death and KU blizzards up the east coast by Christmas week looks like it’s going to work out superbly!!

Totally wrong

I will say this….for a storm less than 2.5 days away, there is ridiculous disagreement with the models. You have the NAM/UKMET in one corner showing a full blown snowstorm. The RGEM I guess in the “middle”, the CMC hasn’t run yet for some reason, but assuming it will look like the RGEM. And you have the GFS/RRFS/GFS-AI/ICON with a minor event. Let’s see what the EURO/EURO-AI does…..