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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    This is only the very beginning of what is certain to be a super Nino induced, record-breaking STJ for the next 4+ months. The ++PMM and strong +QBO are only going to enhance it even more
  2. snowman19
    And looking at 3.4’s absolute temperature, it is over 30C (over 86F) for weeks now, which is the highest ever in recorded history… EDIT: @GaWx The 2nd highest absolute temperature ever recorded for region 3.4 was back in November of 2015 at over 29C
  3. snowman19
    Regardless of the actual +IOD raw numbers, there is very clear +IOD forcing present on the OLR and VP charts. So the atmospheric coupling is there, which is what is important. It would be impossible not to have a +IOD with a Nino this insanely strong, it causes one to develop. It’s not going to make any difference in the strength of this Nino, nor how well it is and has been coupled. We are light years stronger than 2015, 1997, 1982 and 1972. It’s not even remotely close. This Nino has already secured its place as the strongest event in history and it’s going to increase its strength even more into December
  4. snowman19
    Evidence growing to support your guess that this warming event never actually downwells to the bottom of the stratosphere and couples with the troposphere, then rapidly strengthens again into early December
  5. snowman19
    This El Niño is so far ahead of 1997 in literally every metric (surface temps, subsurface temps, sea level heights, WWBs, DWKWs, 30C warm pool, warm water volume/OHC) it’s not funny. And we are about to see even more strengthening this month and into December with the oncoming massive WWB. The strongest east-based super El Niño in history is a lock
  6. snowman19
    The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul
  7. snowman19
    Strong signal for a warm November too
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Yep. They have absolutely sucked with this event. Embarrassing. The CANSIPS finally caved to the EURO, showing a +4.1C December peak now like the EURO has had for months. And it’s still dead wrong on the orientation of this extreme east-based/EP Nino
  10. snowman19
    Agree. IMO this ends up a strong -TNH winter EDIT: Looks like Paul Roundy is also on board for a predominant negative TNH winter too. Missed his tweet on that a few days ago
  11. snowman19
    As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run @donsutherland1
  12. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 Speaking of 1997-98, which I firmly believe is the best analog for this winter despite this El Niño being much stronger (and more east-based)
  13. snowman19
    Massive WWB coming for early-mid next month. This will cause even more warming in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4, setting the stage for the December peak. This super El Niño has secured and guaranteed its rightful place as the strongest and most east-based in history….
  14. snowman19
    Ok
  15. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
  16. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is about to explode with warmth. A DWKW has reached the South American coast and has begun to surface, anomalies of +10C are being reported and sea level heights are at levels never seen before in history. This warmth is certain to spread into regions 3 and 3.4 in the next few weeks. Also, this WWB continues to look more and more impressive on the models, which is also going to help enhance the warming in those regions over the next several weeks….. The subsurface…..WOW
  17. snowman19
    No surprise coming from the guy who failed out of meteorology school. If stupid could fly, he’d be a jet
  18. snowman19
    Man, this upcoming WWB for early November looks real impressive on the models. This thing is the energizer bunny in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….
  19. snowman19
    The EURO refuses to back down whatsoever. Still insists on a December peak and holds on to the astronomical, record-shattering warmth in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 In other non ENSO news, the +QBO has fully downwelled to the bottom of the stratosphere and continues to strengthen. A very strong positive event has developed. And as @LakePaste25 and myself suspected, the rise in the PDO continues….up to -0.72 I still suspect we see it go weak positive by winter
  20. snowman19
    Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless. Eric Webb had this to say:
  21. snowman19
    In the last 50+ years, the super El Niño that most closely resembles this one in development/evolution, forcing and orientation (even though this one is much stronger and more east-based) is 1997, hands down
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    IMO I see no reason to deviate from my +QBO/El Nino December guess. I completely agree with @Winter Wizard take: “Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.”
  24. snowman19
    This ++PMM setting more records….
  25. snowman19
    This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee…. We have left 1997 in the dust:
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