snowman19

This overall dry pattern has been persistent as hell for quite awhile now (started back in the fall of 2024). We’ve basically seen relentless cold with very few breaks since the end of November but the dryness has continued. The only real exception was last weekend

Really with the lone exception of last weekend, we have been in a dry pattern since the end of November. A very persistent cold pattern for sure but also an overall dry one

Wxbell (JB) ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!!

Judah Cohen thinks one more SPV stretch this week then a Canadian warming

The models really want to tank the PNA after the 10th. I know Ray expected that….

It does not take until the end of March to start to get hostile for big NYC snowstorms. Look at climo. Once you get to 2/21, the number of big snowstorms in NYC starts a pronounced drop off. Once you get to 3/1, the number really starts to drop off. I’m not saying it can’t snow, that would be ridiculous, but the number of big snowstorms in NYC absolutely starts dropping on 2/21 and it starts dropping off even more rapidly on 3/1

Welp, my idea of turning milder in February is obviously going to bust horribly. Congrats @40/70 Benchmark What I’m still pretty confident in is that February is very likely not to be a blockbuster snow month, at least in my area (NYC metro). I looked back at all the La Niña winters to 1979 in my area and none of them had blockbuster February’s for snow, even 1996, January was the really big snow month that winter. The only cool ENSO winter that had a really big February for snow in the last 47 years was 2013-14 but that was just cold-neutral and never actually reached La Niña levels like this one did

It doesn’t start to get hostile for snow here until 2/21. “Prime” snow season for our area is 12/20 - 2/20

There are a lot of unknowns/uncertainty about the projected SSW and SPV split:

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

La Niña did not start fading in December lol @40/70 Benchmark He just refuses to let go of that narrative lol

It looks like we go back to a northern branch dominated pattern next month like we had in December

Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….

ENSO has finally gone up to cold-neutral. Looks like one final burst of easterlies in region 3.4 before it’s totally dead for good. The SOI has finally come down from the severely positive values we saw, but -AAM continuing. The -PDO is still there but obviously well weakened from the ridiculous negative values we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Read your blog and I agree, next month looks -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO. The only thing saving this from going to an early spring is the projected -AO/-NAO and the *possible* SSWE. Whether or not this ends up just a big SPV stretch/wave reflection or it decides to pull a February, 2018 and do a major SSW with a total wind reversal and complete SPV split and coupling with the troposphere; “locking” the -AO/-NAO remains to be seen

He definitely gets an A+ for effort. If you don’t like what the models show…make your own….

February 1-20 is generally supportive of snow and sustaining snow. Once we get to the 2/21, that’s when it really starts to get not so easy

If February is in fact another colder than normal month, we will be at the door of a place we haven’t been in with a La Niña winter in over 30 years (1995-1996). In order to actually tie that winter with 5 months (November-March) in a row of below normal cold, March will also have to another below normal cold month, still way too early to determine March, but February will at least be off to a very good start…..

Question is was the GFS suite an overcorrection? It was the furthest off shore for days. The GFS is notorious for being an extreme south/east outlier, then it overcorrects for a few runs, then finally joins consensus after that. Horrific model

I posted my snow total this morning

Probably 14 or 15 inches here. Biggest snowstorm since the 21-22 winter

Your sister’s house

I agree with you. Discount the NAM at your own risk at this range. Especially since the new RRFS is trending towards it. Over the years people have been burned really bad tossing the NAM in these types of setups

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different?

The initial front end thump is definitely going to be impressive. That’s locked in, I think the only remaining question is, when does the changeover to sleet with the warm nose then dry slot happen? As a sweeping generality, I’d say 6-10 in the NYC metro area (including the immediate north and west suburbs) before the changeover/dry slot