snowman19

Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east And there are more WWBs to come….

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño

I agree that we are going to see big warming coming up with the massive DWKW that has just begun propagating east from the WPAC and the continued WWBs. Also, already seeing signs of a strong +IOD forming with the robust cooling around Australia. That’s going to constructively interfere with the ongoing Nino development/Bjerknes feedback

Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….

^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”

Dear stupid cow, That’s actually what the new RONI forecast shows, which is not generated by AI you vapid little airhead

Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too….

The models are starting to go bonkers with multiple TC’s developing in the PAC over the next week…..

Here comes more WWBs. I think this is going to be a record-breaking TC season in the PAC….

Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated

In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history

Nino Region 1+2 SSTs are exploding as the 1st kelvin waves are breaking at the South American coast and have begun surfacing And the area of +6C in the subsurface is expanding rapidly

“The downwelling Kelvin Wave over the Central Pacific is now slightly stronger than previous events (1997 and 2015) were at the same approximate longitude. There's also yet another downwelling wave yet to propagate east from the WPAC (driven by the last westerly wind burst). With weak trade winds forecast across the Pacific the next two weeks, there will be nothing to attenuate these Kelvin Waves, so they will continue to propagate east and lead to rapid warming of the Central and East Pacific as we progress into #ElNiño.”

In the 2 days since this post, the projected next WWB is gaining strength on the models. It is going to spawn even more TC’s with the associated WWBs in their wake. IMO a super El Niño is getting very close to being a lock

Paul Roundy says this is going to be the strongest DWKW in history Very rapid surface warming in the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) has started. +5C anomalies showing up at the surface now OHC is exploding too, up to +1.90C. This is from a South American meteorologist: ^Translation: “04/22/26 Sub-surface thermal structure in the tropical equatorial Pacific. - Warm Water Volume +1.90C (increase) - #KelvinWave strengthening++ - #SubsurfaceHeating continues, emerges to the surface along the equatorial Pacific.”

+6C subsurface anomalies showing up now

@bluewave