snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Hopefully the snow melt and projected rain going forward tames brush fire season which starts soon. 3/15-5/15 is the annual burn ban in NY to help mitigate wildfire season….
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It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave
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Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo
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Ditto on 7pm sunsets coming back next Sunday. I think most would agree, it feels good to finally have turned the corner on sunlight today. November-February is the “darkest” 4 months of the year. March is the month with the biggest gain in daylight of the entire year…great to be back, looking forward to baseball season. My little cousin has the first regular season game of his high school varsity season the last Friday of March
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The final band is in Rockland now, doesn’t look like much at all behind it
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Sloatsburg: 31 degrees, light graupel with some snowflakes mixed in. Roads just wet
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Hopefully it holds for the next 10 months
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I’m honestly looking forward to Daylight Savings Time and 7pm sunsets again next Sunday
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Happy Meteorological Spring!
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Well, Contentweatherguy, who has been very bullish on the cold and snow train all winter long, has this to say about March:
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What’s the target date/dates for the arctic cold and east coast snowstorm pattern to start up again?
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During the day, March, light event, temps in the mid-30’s even up where I am…..white rain
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There are big questions right now as to whether this stratospheric warming event next month even downwells and couples with the troposphere
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On repeat. Every year without fail, like clockwork. Cut and pasted. You can set your watch to it
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@donsutherland1 No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….
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It’s not out that far on Pivotal yet. The AIFS is showing 3-5 in the area, higher numbers NW of the city
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It’s starting to look like more of a Tuesday-Wednesday event than a Monday event
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Now the models are suddenly trying to turn Sunday into an “event”. Very light….1-2, 1-3 mainly N and W of the city. I’ve never seen the models flip flop and suddenly change and in some cases flat out bust horribly in the short term as much as they have been this winter in all my years of being a weather hobbyist
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I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff
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Assuming there actually is a -AO/-NAO flip around 3/20 (Equinox), I wouldn’t say there’s still plenty of time for NYC metro area snowstorms at that point. Have they happened 3/20 and beyond? Yes. Would I gamble that there’s going to be a NYC snowstorm pattern setting up 3/20 - early April? Not so much. After 3/15, south of New England, it’s very late for that. Obviously not impossible and has happened before with anomalous, freak snowstorms, but yea…..
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Since March is 4 days away I figured I’d start a March thread. Discuss….
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So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?
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Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows
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Where did I say NYC isn’t getting a foot? The RGEM has a foot in the city. As far as what the NAM has been selling? Throw it in the trash, it’s going to start backing down and playing catch up. There’s a reason why the NAM/SREF are getting retired this year and it’s not because it’s good. The only thing it’s good for is warm nose events and that’s it. This is a classic NAM over amp and it’s going to bust horribly IMO
