snowman19

Several years ago HM did a write up on this. There is a SOI correlation, but it’s during El Niños only. As I’m sure you already know, the STJ is driven by thunderstorms in the tropics and the polar jet is driven by temperature contrasts. Strong -SOI enhances Nino related thunderstorm activity in the tropics and subsequently strengthens the STJ, which is already beefed up by the standing wave El Niño convection on the equator. When there is a big drop in the SOI, the southern stream gets enhanced and the chances for east coast storm activity goes way up afterwards. This does not apply during La Nina’s. Many years ago, JB decided to incorrectly apply and hype big SOI drops to corresponding to STJ/southern stream enhancement, east coast storms and arctic outbreaks during La Nina’s and it was taken to be fact by the weenies and I guess even by some mets…. @donsutherland1

Yes, that SOI correlation only works during El Niños, not during La Niña’s. Unfortunately JB spread false info about it years ago and many people (apparently even some mets) believed him

Mike is completely wrong about big SOI drops in winter corresponding to strengthening/energizing the STJ and causing big east coast snow storms and arctic outbreaks. That correlation only works during El Niños, not during La Niñas. So Mike is spreading false info just like JB does for likes, follows, attention, retweets and subscribers. He may want to actually research the SOI correlation before he goes posting nonsense about it on twitter And furthermore, he’s dead wrong about another thing, we have not been seeing classic split-flow. That is an El Niño feature where the jet splits into 2 branches off the west coast with a dominant southern stream (STJ) and a very weak polar jet. We have a very dominant northern branch and a very muted southern branch, typical of a Niña. That tweet was full of fake news and reads like a New York Post article

Maybe we should use El Niño analogs! I’m thinking 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10, 14-15

At this point I don’t think the question is “will December be cold?”. Very likely to average cold. I think the bigger, million dollar question will be snow. As of right now, the pattern does not look conducive at all for east coast, I-95 corridor snowstorms. I agree with your take in the post you made earlier in that regard. If December ends up colder than normal with below average snow, I think most on here would consider that a loss

If that’s correct, a cold look for sure. A coastal storm pattern, not so much (++NAO/flat PNA). Maybe fast moving, progressive clippers? EDIT: @EastonSN+ Snowfall in -WPO patterns vs -EPO patterns is a good question. @donsutherland1 is the man to ask about that

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave

That’s exactly what the GEFS is showing; an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO) as opposed to an Alaskan ridge regime (-EPO)…..

Verbatim, it’s showing an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO), if it goes poleward, as is being shown, it would tap cross-polar flow/arctic air into western Canada

Zip zero

Yea, that northern fringe being shown over our area is very likely virga that can’t be resolved on global models at this range. The airmass that’s going to be over us is going to be extremely dry and is going to “eat up” the QPF

Completely agree. The pattern looks extremely hostile to KU’s up the coast through at least mid-December and very likely beyond that time frame

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

34 degrees and all rain in Sloatsburg. Started as snow, maybe 1/4 inch, then quickly went to sleet/snow/rain for about an hour, then rain

Nothing has changed in days. This was always an Orange-Sussex-Putnam snow event. As per usual, the only place that thought this was going to somehow be an I-95 corridor snowstorm were the usual suspects on twitter. If you listened to them, the I-95 corridor would have 300 inches of snow every winter

We still have 30 days to go for the final verdict on December, so a lot of time. But I will say this, just speaking for the NYC metro area and not any other place, in a La Niña winter, if you have a below normal snow December, in particular if you had no measureable snow in November, followed by a below normal December, it’s a very, very bad omen…..almost none of them throughout weather record keeping history have gone on to be above normal winters for snow and the overwhelming majority of them go on to be below normal winters for snow…..

Lol not just a total wind reversal and major SSWE but an SPV split by Christmas week. That Moregarbage prediction was one for the ages lol

@40/70 Benchmark Looks like your musing that the SPV regains strength back to climo/average (no not above normal strength) was a good one after all

If December ends up a solid -PNA/RNA month, then there is good evidence you provided for a +PNA January. And if it really does happen then kudos to Ray on his December forecast @40/70 Benchmark

That’s all I wanted to know. So your forecast is over 4 weeks in phase 8. Thank you

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

Just to make sure I have your post correct, it’s your prediction that the MJO is going to stay in phase 8 the entire month of December? So 31 days in phase 8?

Nothing has changed since yesterday. This is still a snowstorm once you get 40 miles or more north and northwest of the city (Orange, Sussex and Putnam). South of there is a snow/mix to rain. Not really sure why the 0z run of the op EURO is getting posted this morning instead of the new 6z run, which is clearly coming more into line with all the other guidance. It was the most SE of all other guidance at 0z and therefore was an outlier. This was/is in no way, shape or form a NYC snowstorm

It looks like you are going to have to be 40+ miles N and NW of NYC (Orange, Sussex, Putnam) to get into accumulating snow from this one