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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Incredibly impressive sea level anomalies/thermocline:
  2. snowman19
    IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    Very strong coupling with the Nino standing wave convection/forcing: As anticipated, the EPAC has come alive
  6. snowman19
    A new CCSR/IRI update indicates [emoji305] A clear bias toward a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the fall of 2026. [emoji409] The highest probabilities reach around 84% during September and October. [emoji408] The multi-model average predicts a peak for the index of +1.5°C, with some individual scenarios higher
  7. snowman19
    We are breaking a bunch of 1997’s records. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997’s subsurface warmth. The OHC has broken 1997’s record, which was +2.5C, we are at +2.8C, this ongoing WWB is record-breaking, much stronger than the one that occurred around the same time in 1997, the associated DWKW is also stronger. This -SOI run is breaking 1997’s record. We are warmer in both region 3.4 and region 3 and we are virtually neck and neck in region 1+2: WWB: Region 3 is forecasted to go off the charts: The 30C isotherm is further east than 1997 (east of the dateline) and still moving east: “2026 for the win! Part of the present advantage is the ongoing westerly wind burst timed later than the corresponding one in 1997 (which was late May/early June). This year's summer wind event was longer and ultimately stronger. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline continues to support the extreme potential for this event.”
  8. snowman19
    The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C
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  10. snowman19
    Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….
  11. snowman19
    It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength…. Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023: @Stormchaserchuck1
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong
  14. snowman19
    Rapid warming in the western IOD region and cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia/Australia. The +IOD is coming on fast. Once it gets established, it’s going to project onto (constructively interfere) that huge El Niño standing wave signal you showed and it’s going to increase the Bjerknes feedback even more @LakePaste25 @40/70 Benchmark@BlizzardWx @csnavywx @donsutherland1 @raindancewx
  15. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ
  16. snowman19
    Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this. This is as east-based of an evolution as you could possibly get: In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop….
  17. snowman19
    I never said it’s done warming. My post only dealt with what has happened from when this event started up to now, not what is going to happen in the future with region 4. It may very well start warming again in the fall. @LakePaste25 I agree with you about the peak. I think this event more than likely peaks in December, not November like the EURO is showing Jeez, it already looks impressive as hell
  18. snowman19
    Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997
  19. snowman19
    Yes it’s the CFS for September, but Holy El Niño!
  20. snowman19
    This is just ridiculous. Westerlies clear across the entire tropical Pacific basin
  21. snowman19
    This system is now self-sustaining, positive feedback with the standing wave and is just going to continue strengthening, warming and maintaining the convection/westerly flow
  22. snowman19
    As strong El Niño as it gets….. And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline
  23. snowman19
    The 30C isotherm continues to be pushed further east of the dateline by the constant WWBs. It’s extremely likely that it gets pushed all the way to 140W by November like the models are showing, which would be record-breaking. The developing parade of typhoons are only going to enhance the westerlies/WWBs going forward. The warm pool east of the dateline has moved the downwelling Kelvin wave generation area to around the dateline to 165W. This means it will take less time for warm water to be transported into the EPAC, thus El Nino will grow very quickly from here on out. A record-breaking historic event is guaranteed at this point. I think we see forcing possibly set up the furthest east on record by late fall/winter. Here is a taste of what is to come on this side of the hemisphere with the STJ……
  24. snowman19
    There has been a total collapse of the South Pacific High (“Anticyclone”). Something that hasn’t happened since 1997 and one of the main reasons for the inferno in region 1+2, along with the huge WWBs and DWKWs we’ve been seeing for months….
  25. snowman19
    The EPAC TC train has left the station….
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