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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    We are about to catch up to and surpass 1997 in the eastern ENSO regions:
  2. snowman19
    @Lakepaste25
  3. snowman19
    The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….
  4. snowman19
    This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point: “+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent. A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause. The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts. Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback. However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.” ^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  5. snowman19
    “The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing. Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history. Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.”
  6. snowman19
    Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    Since we are very likely going to be in uncharted territory by early November with the warm pool pushed all the way to 140W (along with a record-breaking super El Niño in place for that matter), we aren’t going to know how the atmosphere reacts to that massive change in the global heat budget and the realignment of the ENSO Hadley Cell….where does it put the main forcing/standing wave convection? How far east does it go? We are going to have to wait and see what happens at that point in time….
  9. snowman19
    This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall… @LakePaste25 30kt westerlies to 120W lol
  10. snowman19
    Region 3.4 record-breaking: Region 1+2 also off the charts, the only El Niño event in history that was warmer in 1+2 at this point in time was 1997 and it wasn’t warmer by much
  11. snowman19
    I don’t see any reason whatsoever to doubt it gets to 120W by November like the Euro seasonal shows, it’s already east of the dateline and still being pushed by the WWBs
  12. snowman19
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  14. snowman19
    100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120W by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) Wow:
  15. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2074089660733661350?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  16. snowman19
    Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    The difference between this Nino and 2023, even 2015 are night and day. We have seen a complete trade wind reversal this year along with relentless WWBs/westerlies since April and it’s going to continue as far as the eye can see, augmented by the TC’s and the MJO progression this month. This year, unlike 2023 or even 2015 for that matter, we are seeing the WWBs and DWKWs easily propagating east of the dateline. 2023 and 2015 actually saw EWBs even up to this point in time and the trade winds just kept fighting back….this year….nope, not even close. @csnavywx pointed this out about a month ago. This El Niño is just going to continue to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content with nothing to counter it, right through this fall
  19. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2073779464975098028?s=20 Also of note, the EURO, once again, shows a strong +IOD this fall and it keeps the ++PMM going
  20. snowman19
    Regardless of what happens with November and January, the signal for this coming December based on the last 46 years (1980) of climo for El Niño/+QBO, very strongly favors that month being warmer than normal
  21. snowman19
    @Gawx Here comes the +AAM surge
  22. snowman19
    Deep -OLR between 170E and 120W indicates El Niño standing wave convection in the central Pacific, convection is way more intense than normal, this also shows upper level divergence in that area, while the +OLR over Indonesia, indicates upper level convergence and suppression/subsidence. This is all consistent with a flip of the Walker circulation and very strong El Niño coupling (ocean-atmosphere); Bjerknes feedback
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  25. snowman19
    Yea, not a surprise since the EPAC tropical season doesn’t normally get going in full force until July, normal climo. All indications are that this is going to be a huge EPAC TC season
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