EastonSN+

Yeah this one was suppressed to our south on this run.

I love seeing the high pressure to our north instead of the last two years where there was always a low pressure system.

Pulling for DC. They already had their first snow would like for them to get another.

Lol I never want to feel those temps again. Brutal. The 80s were pretty volatile temperature wise. 1989 was especially so with a record cold December followed by record warmth in January and February.

The better comparison would be 1996 through 2000, where Central Park averaged just 11.125 inches of snow! Let's see how this year shakes out as well as next year, as we could challenge that 4 year abismal stretch.

A better comparison is 1985 through 1990, where central park averaged only 15.34.

Thanks for this. We have definitely been in a predominant west coast trough, save 2021/2022, for the last five years excluding the current year. You have pointed out the IO and western Pacific temps as the driver which does make sense. From a learning perspective, what drove the continuous west coast ridge from 2000 through 2018? 2013 through 2015 was the east based negative EPO, however what drove the remaining years? Were the warmer water departures in a more favorable spot continuously through this period? I am actually seeing the benefits of the west coast troughing now as the southern California reservoirs have made a DRAMATIC, incredible come back and the snowpack has increased tremendously which is great! I believe the last time they had these levels were from the El nino periods of the 80s and 90s (I used to think that all the ski movies of the 80s were due to the fact that it always snowed there non stop lol). The predominant west coast Ridge from 2000 through 2018 was the driver in the reservoir issues out west. Finally, if one maritime force drove the west coast ridge from 2000 through 2018, and now another above normal ocean temperature location is driving the west coast troughing, what do we look for in terms of the next maritime driver location? What mechanism would drive this change? The favorable location lasted from 2000 through 2018, so unfortunately this may last another 10 years plus lol. Finally, why are the western Pacific Ocean temps skyrocketing faster than other locations? I understand there is a lot of development in that area, however, water currents are continuous so it's hard to believe that industrial activities would be driving that one area. Thank thanks!

Well, December actually acted like a true strong El nino background state with the entire continent void of arctic air (flooded by PAC air). As for January, we do see the trough dip first out west, the million dollar question is will the trough move east with time. If it's just 1 to 2 weeks that's fine. If not we are waiting for shorter wavelengths in Feb and March (and unfortunately April which has been cool and dreary lately). Also, WRT the la Nina/trough out west look, are we saying this has never happened before in a strong El Nino? We never experienced a western trough in strong El nino history in January? Not sure but perhaps Don or Bluewave knows.

I am not too familiar with 94/95 in terms of H5, but I do remember it being one storm and not till almost mid February. 97/98 is still the best match in that there was no arctic air in North America and was a strong El nino.

It's following the same story so far, first inch WAS that storm, and it was the only one the entire season.

Lol that was yet another disaster winter of the 70 through 1999 period. However you are correct in even though we only had one storm the entire season, it was a real good one and would take.

I do not have the historical MJO plots, however 97/98 had repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but rain to show for it. The fact that the storm tracks were of the benchmark variety leads me to believe that there was a trough in the east, therefore "favorable" MJO phases. Again, the problem with that year were the temps in North America which were too warm even for the northwest side of the storms. At least this year there are signs we are not heading down that road. We shall see but hopefully we get more of a 82/83 or 15/16 result.

Ensembles look ok over the course of the period. Definitely does not LOOK like what 97/98 delivered (which is of course the worst case scenario).

97/98 was always a risk in a strong El nino however I agree, a few weeks to early to throw in the towel.

I am a Yankees fan but I would go with METS. Anytime you have an owner with those resources you can win a WS any year. Just look at Texas last year. Mostly money driven. Mets can turn that around in a year or two. So, METS.

Yeah, strong El Ninos are warm to say the least.

Yeah, 97/98 had really good blocking and we experienced nothing but rain from perfect storm tracks.

Be careful not to get sick, feels warm now but if it was this temperature in July you would feel extremely cold and for good reason.

Exactly! Cary North Carolina (Raleigh area) had a snow event a couple years ago and the Delmarva had a great winter by their standards as well. I think Norfolk did really well too. As you stated they are well south and considerably warmer. If they can snow so can we. A couple years in the 70s and the year 1987 were extremely cold and suppressed. A SE ridge may help in reducing suppression in a repeat of those years. We just don't know yet. As long as we see the south and mid Atlantic see snow, we have time. DC is an odd area as they always were too far south for northern stream system redevelopment and too far north for SE sliders. They always needed everything to line up and now that they are a couple degrees warmer it's that much harder.

Yup. Really 1970 through 1999 was dreadful. It will make the next 1993/1994, 1995/1996 that much more enjoyable.

I would include 2000 through 2018 as the extreme snowy period. You could be right about a new regime, however for me personally I need to see this stretch eclipse at least the 15 year period of 85 through 99 where we only experienced 2 above normal and 1 normal snowfall season. Excluding this year, we have experienced 1 above average snowfall winter in 5 years so sort of on pace....

Yup. Trying to investigate the horrid 1970 through 1999 stretch and it looks like the late 80s through the mid 90s had a predominantly hostile PAC.

Thanks! 77/78 had two monster snowstorms - was the El nino this strong? Would give us more hope if it was.

Wiki "The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1990–95 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.[141][142][unreliable source?][143] An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.[144] Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching"."[145]