EastonSN+

Thanks, is this difference also why the MA is doing better with snowfall than 1998 this Year? That year we had no hope at all, yet this year they may receive another event next week. Something else caused 1998 to be far less snowy than this year down there. Is the faster flow allowing them to stay on the colder side?

Thanks Don, This is true, however, I fear that while we focus on the current anomolies we may not be contemplating future change as well. The one constant in life and weather is chang. 1.) IO temperatures are warming extremely fast. This will be MJO 1,2 and 3. Will this offset forcing in 4,5,6. Or will this provide us with another new setup? 2.) We witnessed the "blob" off the west coast which greatly affected 13 through 15. What caused that and will it happen again? The PAC jet cut the PNA repeatedly the last 2 years, however, what if we see the return off the west coast? 3.) What is causing the Delmarva/Norfolk to continue to receive snow while we do not? Does this current environment favor them? Faster jet=faster flow therefore when it's cold enough storms do not have time to climb the coast (they do not warm and change)? 4.) If the aforementioned is true and the PAC jet is screaming, why are we still seeing very powerful cutters? Why is the fast PAC allowing it cutters? Why not huggers or coastals? 5.) What worked right in 00/01 to allow for a KU in Feb and a borderline KU earlier that December? One would think this is impossible given last 2 years, however it did work out. That is obviously still possible, perhaps more often as well? IMO climate change is more than just "everything is warmer", but rather "increased volatility". Therefore, by nature temperatures from a day to day perspective will be volatile as well, meaning more powerful cold shots (like we just witnessed will the record cold out west) as well as more powerful storms, both tropical and extra tropical. Coastal NC was hammered 2 years ago, perhaps this will also be more common.

Yeah, and Don referenced "the elephant in the room" before the season began, referring of course to 1998. Unfortunately here we are. Although, the Middle Atlantic has performed much better than us this year.

Heat island effect lol

Yeah I was lazy, here is Kuchera. Would be best case for CPK and LI.

Yeah I saw that. I think it comes down to the back end. How much is left and how much does the low deepen. I literally live 1.5 miles north of the Merritt lol.

12 k was colder and snowier than 3k south of 84 FWIW.

NAM a bit colder and snowier FWIW.

Lol don't worry, just take a 4 hour drive south to the Delmarva they are above average snowfall for last few years. Heck even coastal North Carolina got hammered one storm.

Yeah not feeling this one down here.

I always take decadal stats from 0, i.e. 00/01, 10/11, 20/21, which would put this decade at 15.275. still bad but a bit better.

Maybe, winters tend to have a theme. Hopefully next year is our next 20/21.

Kind of a big cut back for coastal plain.

If it does not work out we will get em next time.

We had a high amplitude 1, 2 and 3 in January. The IO temps are rising fast which will increase 1,2 and 3.

It's going to go through 1,2 and 3.

Wouldn't shorter wavelengths help post 15th? Bowling ball lows.

Complete opposite of the GFS suite.

A smidge north and stronger than 6z, however, the ensembles tend to follow the op at this range.

Really strange but it gives a little validity to the Canadian solution.

Given the IO temps, I think higher amplitude in phases 1,2 and 3 are our best opportunity. Yeah phase 8 will be weak.

I don't know how we can do worse than 4 above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. We had already 1 in 6 if we include this year. Also, the 90s only had 2 years above average in that 10 year span.

It did move south wrt low pressure location. Yes weaker.

Yeah, we lose with the GFS and the Canadian in opposite directions.