EastonSN+

2000 through 2018 seemed like every single snow event at least clipped central park, mimicking 1955 through 1969. 1970 through 1999 it was the complete opposite where it felt like snow was impossible to come by for central park. Mimicking 2019 through today. In fact the 30 year central park snowfall average for 1970 through 1999 is not far off from 2019 through last winter. Not saying this period will last 30 years as well, however, there were 5 good winters in that 30 year period, so we should see a few until the next good period arrives (we already had 2020/2021, so just 4 more above average snowfall winters and we match 1970 through 1999).

This is a quote from USA tday online: "La Niña vs. polar vortex? Forecast warns of 'extraordinary' winter weather. A sudden, dramatic shift in temperatures high in the atmosphere will dance with the La Niña weather pattern. There won't be a clear winner, and forecasters are still determining how cold it could get." Epic battle shaping up.

How much more frequently has this been happening (i.e. 20% more often than the previous 50 year average)? Not arguing, just want to get an idea.

Thanks Don. The failed blocking episodes prior to last year all included an RNA, which makes the "blocking no longer works" commentary even more perplexing (not from you). Last years blocking failed due suppression of course.

Nice snow burst.

Nice snow burst.

Central Park recorded 2 accumulating snowfalls in February 2011, after the proclaimed end of winter. 1.6 on February 2 3.2 on February 21 Not bad for a la Nina February if you ask me.

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina.

Record cold in southeast according to news. Assuming this is due to la Nina.

I don't remember it linking up to the SE ridge last year like it did the previous 2 winters. I do remember the board commenting that we were happy to see it disconnected. The fact that it did not link up helped the Middle Atlantic score a good snowfall winter. Storm track was too far south for us.

I didn't see it referenced as an analog, could it be?

Yeah, 2000 was the best of the "recent" analogs. Solid above average snowfall winter.

Although not an analog, 2017/2018 would be the ideal scenario for a fast start winter. Cashing in on the early winter opportunities, followed by a late season STRONG blocking episode.

Side note, like seeing the colling off the coast of China and Indonesia.

I am just happy to see some cooling in the IO, even if its CURRENTLY in the wrong spot.

NYC did great 2000 through 2018.

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip. There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school. Last year was a great example of a ton of bad luck. The Delmarva area and my old vacation spot of ocean city maryland are loving the past few years! Got to head south for snow. 96/97 through 99/00 were bad patterns. All in all after personally living through both periods what we have experienced is similar, which is why I am not worried yet. Lol if this period surpasses 30 years I will worry.

96/97 was terrible here in SW connecticut. 92/93 ended up average for snowfall. Only 93/94 and 95/96 were above average here for the decade. 96/97 through 99/00 were abysmal.

My advice is to focus on 40/70 Benchmark and DonSutherland1 posts as they are non-biased and focus on the near term. I have personally blocked posters who are one sided and I am less frustrated. For my area (tri state) the 90s were horrible for snow outside of 3 winters. From 1970 to 1999 only 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, so this period, to me personally, is not shocking at all. I THINK a lot has to do with how 2000 through 2018 mirrored 1955 through 1969 in terms of epic winters and KU events, and for posters who have not seen that many winters in their lifetimes these last few years have been a complete shock.

The Neg. NAO did not link up with the SE ridge much last winter, unlike previous. Also the Middle Atlantic did well with one of the blocking episodes, unless you are saying that the tendency of blocking to be further south will benefit south of us when it does not not link up. I am still not convinced that this linking did not happen in the past and is something new.

I think this does warrant more attention (what would allow a 50/50 to lock in / why it has not formalized much recently). Perhaps someone with access to the data can see when the last time a period like this occurred and how long it took to revert back. 1955 through 1969 (I known i sound like a broken record) mirrored 2000 through 2018 in terms of KU events and overall snowfall. 1970 through 1999 had only 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years (2019 to now 1 above in 6 years). Perhaps theses periods can be compared to see if the 50/50 presence was also the culprit.

2013 was the 2nd best storm In my lifetime in CT. Received 22 inches in Norwalk CT. The blizzard of 1996 was the only storm that i lived through with more snowfall (27 inches Norwalk CT).

Impossible! Benchmark storms are extinct!

For me 1993 had more to do with the effects down south and the Appalachians. Also the strength of the storm and the severe storm outbreak in Florida during the storm. I can see April 1982 happening with a late sswe and a cross polar flow. I don't think it will happen in my lifetime but of the four would pick this.

This is actually an interesting debate on the rarity of each of the events. If I had a guess which one we would likely see sooner if at all would be April 1982. If I had a guess which one we would never see again in our lifetimes it would be 1993.