EastonSN+

NAM 12k that's up to a half an inch to Central Park. 1 to 3 coastal Connecticut.

Agreed that the next two weeks are going to be a little tough for the general area. We should have a much better opportunity second half of February into March.

HRRR has 1 to 3 CT coast. About an inch on the North fork of Long Island. A coating for the North shore of Western Long Island. About a half inch Westchester county.

I think phases eight one and two as well as the length of the blocking time frame will easily lead into the second week of March.

FWIW TWC is predicting one to three inches for the CP of Connecticut.

You do not believe the mjo heading into phase 8 1 and 2 as well as the AO product to go negative on the ensembles is going to come to fruition? Or are you saying that early spring will follow that period?

This times 1,000. I remember trying to get an all snow event was like pulling teeth.

Starting to see the AO crash.

Still on track timing wise. Weaker than earlier phases but still there and high enough of an amplitude to cause downstream effects, although muted.

The setup of 94 was completely different than this year.

14/15 was great too and colder. I had 20.5 IMBY

That ended up being the most snowfall in my lifetime from March 1st onwards with 27 inches (almost a full season average). However, even 25% of the impact is a massive win. Will be interesting as it would align with phases 8,1 and 2.

Weakening but still there and on target for late February.

It's definitely going to get hit, hoping some semblance of the wave survives to affect our weather. That being said I still don't understand why phase one and two are not discussed more often. The rapidly rising Western Indian ocean temperatures should facilitate much stronger wave activity in phases 1 and 2 which are also colder phases. Also would explain why the deep South had a great winter and we had less precipitation which phase eight usually provides. The focus seems to be solely on lessening effects of phase 8 and greater effects of phases four five and six, which should not be the case when phases 1 and 2 should increase as well.

Progression still on track for phase 8 in mid-February with a lag effect of the last week of February. It's definitely weakening however should still have an effect.

Believe it may have been five

Or March

I believe perhaps a clear definition of buckle up should be provided by the said Twitter blogger.

I technically was a four to six right?

GFS tends to outperform the euro from an mjo projection perspective.

Technically won't help in June it's too warm by then.

No it was an El nino. On a side note I often wonder why so much attention is paid to the warmer Waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia and not the Western Indian Ocean. The Western Indian Ocean supports phases one and two which are cold.

Agreed, however the wave started at a decent amplitude therefore should have some effects in phase 8, albeit weakened. Phase one, which includes the Western Indian Ocean, should not be affected as it wasn't in December. All the focus has been on the waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia however not enough attention has been paid to the Western Indian Ocean which is also increasing in temperature fast. Phases one and two are colder phases. There have been a number of late seasons snowfalls in La Nina's over the years, excluding epic snowy winters like 95/96. I wonder if anybody has done a deep dive into the trigger mechanisms for the late season snowfalls in those La Nina's, which could perhaps provide insight into the potential moving forward. Don's statistics show, from a snowfall perspective at a point in time, which of course do include both La niñas and El ninos. However with the changing weather over the years what may have been detrimental to late season snowfalls in the past may actually work in our favor now or in the future (i.e. warmer western Indian Ocean temps).

The wave is weakening as it heads toward phase 8, however still has decent amplitude. With the lag still looking at the last week of February.