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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    Somehow the euro has been pretty rock steady. Can't rule out a move north but looks like PA border is where the heaviest will set up.
  2. Rd9108
    Euro hasn't budged which is quite amazing. Has us with around 6 which is solid but amazing how steady it's been for the most part. On to the 0z!
  3. Rd9108
    Just saw that. Funny how we go from worrying about suppression to too warm. I figured this would come back north so not surprised. It's only one run and few days away.
  4. Rd9108
    HRRR shows around 3 and then who knows with lake effect. Regardless it looks like we will start building a snow pack.
  5. Rd9108
    Agreed it's a fine line. The closer the heaviest precip the closer the mix line. Just seems like with this being so southern jet stream dominated that WAA may be under modeled, and the storm winds up slightly north of the models.
  6. Rd9108
    First winter weather advisory of the year! Maybe we can get a warning on Monday. Latest euro looks pretty solid with room to improve if the precip busts low or the max is further north than modeled.
  7. Rd9108
    Euro is painfully close but misses to the south. Still time for it to come north but right now our area minus a few posters are on the fringe. Let's see what today shows.
  8. Rd9108
    Just saw that before I'm headed to bed. Look at the kuchera with ratios. This would shut down the city. Gfs is trending slowly toward the other models buts it's still south of most guidance.
  9. Rd9108
    HRRR is juiced for Friday
  10. Rd9108
    Latest trends look good. Not to mention a possible 1-3 Friday. We are now fully in Winter mode. I expect our thread will start to get active in the coming days.
  11. Rd9108
    Happy New Year Still early but lastest blend
  12. Rd9108
    0z gfs looks good. Every option is still on the table.
  13. Rd9108
    Of course not but we seen things trend north lasts second more so than south. Suppression does happen but id say it's rarer than the warm nose pushing in and screwing us.
  14. Rd9108
    Whereas that data come from?
  15. Rd9108
    This looks right to me
  16. Rd9108
    Still a few days out but the 1/5 threat is looking better. Of course we still might have a rug pull happen.
  17. Rd9108
    About as good of a mean we can see it this lead time. Gonna be some stress filled model watching I'm betting
  18. Rd9108
    That look disappeared with the 12z. Teleconnections still look good but now we worry more about suppression than cutters.
  19. Rd9108
    Looks like January is shaping up to be cold and possibly stormy. Doesnt mean we will get snow but the pattern looks very promising.
  20. Rd9108
    Looks like the lake effect machine is shutting down. Good event for many. Looks like maybe atleast flakes flying around on Christmas eve at the very least. A white Christmas looks very probable for many.
  21. Rd9108
    While everybody is focused on the lake effect rightfully so look at the GFS
  22. Rd9108
    Long range still looks promising. I think a warning level storm would satisfy everybody's itch even if we don't reach our average
  23. Rd9108
    Pleasant surprise this morning. Looks like we still have showers rolling through the area and then that Christmas eve wave could still drop another inch to give everybody a white Christmas. After that looks like the New Year we see a new pattern develop and then we can really start tracking winter events. I don't share your guys pessimism I think we atleast reach average totals this year.
  24. Rd9108
    Something to watch is a sneaky little wave right around Christmas. After that we warm up due to the MJO but long range looks promising.
  25. Rd9108
    Already at 3.6 officially for the season. Not a bad start for winter tbh. Who knows we might sneak a few more too before the month ends.
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