The seasonal trend has been for a fast Pacific flow and for bigger storms to get shunted south and east whenever the TPV is involved. There's just no way to slow down the energy crashing into the Pacific North West which is knocking down the ridge. I still think we atleast get a storm bigger than 3 inches this season but it won't be this next one.
Still time for change but honestly the seasonal trend has been for weaker and south so not surprising. Any other winter and we would be chomping at the bit because the NW trend is always there.
Hug the snowiest model. UK has a 970 low off the coast of NYC. GFS trended better but the CMC is less amped now. Still have no idea what impact this will have on us. I'm more intrigued on if we get an earlier changeover tomorrow and get more snow.
The flow is just too progressive every time we see a possible big storm. We need to see this phase sooner but right now if I'm the coast I would like where I sit. DC will probably get it's 3rd 6+ storm in the past 2 months.
Ehh I'm less optimistic about seeing any notable snow anytime soon. The weekend system is a mess and then the next big storm next week will most likely be a near miss with the i95 cashing in. Alot can change but the seasonal trend is for everything to be south and east of us.
I mean anything is possible. We've seen nowcasting busts plenty of times. We've seen the fgen band materialize 200 miles north of the main storm. I don't rule anything out.
Everything is fringe city now. Miss to the north, slider tomorrow, and then the next one cuts. Just unfortunate string of luck. Pattern still looks like it has promise coming up.