Rd9108

2018 also was a two day thing but I'm pretty sure we eclipsed 12 inches. Maybe this is our year... This might a case of 2010 where the Mid-Atlantic needs 40 for us to see 20. It is what it is. 1994 is not a normal low track.

National blend of models fwiw

Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows.

It's fantasy of course but the signs of winter are there. Just gotta get through one more cutter first

Yes I believe so Off the top of my head I'd be more concerned for suppression than these next two waves cutting. Regardless looks like we will have some things to track.

True true. I guess we shall see I'm assuming the next storm is north than the boundary will get pushed East. Hopefully we get some clarity on the 0z runs tonight. FYI I'm done arguing. Weather only. This hobby is stressful enough.

I'd say if we see any meaningful shifts they happen in the 0z suite. From just my weenie eyes it looks like the shortwave is coming ashore right around now.

There's a reason I blocked him and his post made it clear. Anyway we still have another storm to get through before our "period". So anybody punting after two sets of model runs are crazy. Here what the EPS had today. Granted it had a +NAO but this is not a signal for no possible winter weather.

The potential is there but way too far out honestly. This next cutter looks like it will probably be somewhere up through Ohio. Gfs is usually too progressive and Euro is usually too amped.

I was talking to met on another board from around here and he mentioned that's the reason for the snow. The precip came way faster than expected. He said the winds look to be pretty nasty later but not as bad as out further east.

Roads are horrible Actually surprised to see borderline .5-1 inch of wet snow outside too. Figured it would be freezing rain straight to rain.

Definitely tossing this week obviously with the warm Temps and flooding rains. Appears that we are under a wind advisory with winds up to 40mph and gusts up to 50. After that model guidance is all over the place. Might get lucky and get some wrap around snows but those are usually overdone. What looks promising is a period after the cutters and even a possible TPV invasion which would of course bring in cold and dry conditions. Who knoes sometimes you get some arctic squalls that are fun. Ensembles show signs of possible snow in the coming weeks but we have to get through some cutters first. Looks like our next period is the 16-17. Still plenty of winter left to cash, but you definitely hate tossing a week. February shows possible phase 7 of the MJO which gives you this pattern. The MJO looks like it flies through right to phase 7,8 which are more favorable for winter weather.

Honestly looking through old threads we have more posters than you would think. They only come out of the woodwork for 5+. Only us psychos post constantly.

Looks like just some weak energy rolling through.

I'd say I got around 1.5-2 hard to say with the melting but everything is coated.

Regardless of amounts we can all agree it's nice to see some heavier snow fall during daylight hours.

Just enjoy the snow sir and hope rates keep you snow.

Guess we shall see when the precip actually enters the area.

That's fair our group is small as it is. No reason to drive away poster's.

It's not trolling, we are literally getting 2 inches of rain after this storm. So whatever we get isn't gonna stick around long.

It's gonna be gone by next week so I don't see why you are getting bent out of shape.

It will be nice to see snow falling and not rain for a change.

I made one comment that "hate this fucking hobby" and you call that a meltdown. I usually just leave you on ignore because you complain about every storm. Just like the one in 2022.

RAP 1z looks way colder than 0z. Another met mentioned that maybe the meso ingested some warm air data and overcorrected too much.

This hobby might not be for you, especially in our current drought.