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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    Lol once the WTOD shows up its over.
  2. Rd9108
    Shhh I enjoy the meltdown. This is a nowcasting event imo.
  3. Rd9108
    It's over no cold air.
  4. Rd9108
    I'm not gonna lie I just got home and checked the HRRR and i don't think it's ideal that we are seeing signs of the WTOD. I guess we shall see.
  5. Rd9108
    I'm guessing that's the case honestly. HRRR looks warm although another met said it usually verifies a few degrees colder than depicted. Our area is ridiculously hard to forecast and idt people understand that. Our forecast could literally be 1-6 with this storm.
  6. Rd9108
    Nws refuses to hoist an advisory. They give us a 4% chance to see more than 4 inches of snow. Hopefully they bust hard.
  7. Rd9108
    That's the NAM for you. Hoping for 2-4 maybe we get 6.
  8. Rd9108
    Hrrr looks great. One met mentioned this Remember that the HRRR has a warm surface temperature bias in its extended range. Temperatures will likely verify a few degrees colder than what it's forecasting
  9. Rd9108
    All about if the mesos can win out.
  10. Rd9108
    I thought it was a scab and started picking at it and luckily it came off. Did you get lymes?
  11. Rd9108
    This definitely gonna be nowcasting. The meso models have the low getting further and closer to us before transferring. The gfs and cmc have it transferring earlier. It could be all model noise but these little details matter for us. It seems like it's all meso models want to take the low closer to us which brings the rates but also the mix line. It's never easy for us. My gut tells me the 18z HRRR and NAMs head more toward the gfs and cmc but who knows.
  12. Rd9108
    Honestly gfs looks identical to the NAM with the low placement. Would have to look at the 500mb to see the difference.
  13. Rd9108
    Gfs isn't hearing it either fwiw.
  14. Rd9108
    I found a tick on my ball sack back in October. All of those useless parasites can burn or freeze to death.
  15. Rd9108
    This doesn't look like the NAM or HRRR not saying it's right but it can't just be tossed aside
  16. Rd9108
    Hmm idk it has been the only model to show the more "northern" solutions this whole time. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them. I wouldn't expect anything more than 2-4 at the most to keep your expectations in check.
  17. Rd9108
    Strong chance it does but rgem is not anything like the NAMs so wagons west may not be a thing.
  18. Rd9108
    Hence why I'm sure kpitt put it in their forecast. Gonna be fun radar watching if that's the case.
  19. Rd9108
    3k gets that mix line awfully close. Have to smell the sleet to get the better rates they say.
  20. Rd9108
    Seriously give me 4 hours of inch rates during the day and it'll satisfy my snow itch. Now we just need the models to converge on this solution. Crazy how much this storm changed in 60 hrs.
  21. Rd9108
    That's all I want in a storm honestly. Give me the heavy rates.
  22. Rd9108
    Why am I up at 5 AM you ask. Well there's a fire in Manchester that we had to transfer for. Why all this being said. NWS is not on board for anything more than 2 inches. So of course take the models for fwiw.
  23. Rd9108
    Sref positive trends so far
  24. Rd9108
    12k NAMd us hard 3k as well
  25. Rd9108
    Positive energy I'm bringing here. Icon fwiw If the GFS hops on board then I'll get atleast somewhat intrigued and hopeful. As of now this storm has been fascinating to track.
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