Rd9108
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Everything posted by Rd9108
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GEFS now suck balls for our area. Not a single good hit. This is looking like a miss unless we can get some positive trends. -
Most local Mets always err on the side of caution. As the date approaches they adjust the forecast. Don't get discouraged by Smiley forecasting an inch. We are still a few days away. Bernie Rayno always mentions the windshield wiper effect. Models move the solutions and then correct back and then sometimes overcorrect. What we see today might not necessarily be the final solution.
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Good sign this far out. One huge thing we have going for us is peak climo. We don't need an impressive airness to snow.
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Only one of my favorite storms. Jan 94, the rates in that storm were apparently pretty insane. I'll take a 5 hour thump of 1-3 inch per hour over a long duration storm with maybe an inch per hour rates.
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Majority of the euro ensembles look great. Only 28 runs to go.
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Good to have some.guidance show some possibility, but I don't like that the air mass is so marginal. That primary has to die somewhat fast or its gonna be more wet than white.
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Gfs ensembles looked better at 12z. Long way away though.
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12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. Sums up our area quite well.
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Warm tongue showing up on the ensembles=death for us. Once it shows up it never goes away. That was the 6z ensembles so let's see what the 12z does today.
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Looks right to me.
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Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this I bet the ensembles will have some good hits.
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Well atleast the most of the models predicted this correctly. There is also atleast signs of cold on the gfs.
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Radar scope. The line is pretty close but I don't see the metro getting back into snow.
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FWIW the mix line has pushed back south back into AGH county. Hopefully it can push further south but I bet the city will be the dividing line as usual.
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It may happen for a brief time but looking at the high res radar the mix line has surged all the way into Butler county.
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Ping ping. Yep I don't see us get anymore snow. I'm looking forward to our 6 inches in march that's gone in a day.
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The NAM makes this a non event basically.
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2 years ago in March I was in the training academy and I remember it clearly because we had to shovel the training grounds. We got lucky and got around 10 inches.
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Even with perfect conditions I still think this would max out at like 4-6. If we somehow get more than an inch I'd be surprised.
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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020
Rd9108 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Correct me if I'm wrong that's a lot of sleet. -
NAM looks faster and colder FWIW compared to 18z. We see a lot of sleet. Maybe we get lucky for a change.
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I honestly just don't think its gonna snow. We either get a crap pacific or a crap atlantic. Even now the MJO goes into phase 7 which isn't terrible but still warmish for January. We need this in phase 8,1,2. The storm after this one looks pretty identical to the saturday slop. Maybe we get lucky in February as the wavelengths start shortening. Idk every time the long range looks good it goes to shit as we get closer to the storm.
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Gfs is faster and colder FWIW. That's what we need if we want a decent thump before the changeover. Let's see if we get some good trends here.
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It just doesn't want to snow this year. We can't even get a clipper that drops 1-3. Everytime a pattern or storm looks promising in the future it goes to shit fast. We usually have bad luck but it's on a whole other level this year. The storm after this looks like a coastal so I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.
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It's not gonna snow this year.
