Rd9108

Roads were terrible on my way home from work. Lucky I was going against traffic but I'm gonna have to cancel my dentist appointment this morning because there is no reason to be on the roads.

It cant account for the heavier precip allowing it to stay snow. No way in hell its right whenever every single model is close to it atleast for WPA.

One thing for sure we may not get the accumulations that we want but we may have a good chance for some pretty heavy rates. That's why I want another 94 before a 93 just because the rates in that storm were so incredible yet I was only 3.

I tend to favor the least amount of snow in this scenario just because we dont hold onto cold all that well. Maybe the HRRR is onto something but if we somehow get more than 3 inches I'd be shocked.

They are and funny enough they were talking about whether someone was gonna hit 12+ just yesterday. Now they are freaking out that they may only see 3-5 and I'm over here hoping to beat our season high of 3.

Agreed. Right now the gfs is the warmest and is worst case. Curious to see if the euro holds serve. I'd be happy to somehow get 4 but I think 2-3 is the right call.

It's the NAM and hasnt been very good.

From MAG. I'll be back for the NAM most likely pushing south as is the norm for us The warm air will probably win out there as per usual but I think they have a decent shot at a few inches up front at least. Most of the model suite seems pretty supportive of that idea with the GFS being least so and the 18z NAM giving Pit a 6"+ event. To me this looks like a better setup for Pittsburgh metro than last week's storm. We don't have a strong defined low pressure to the lakes (there is still a low going west) and we have what should be a pretty sizeable wave of Gulf Moisture attacking the high pressure. This should deliver frozen up front in Pittsburgh and perhaps a pretty big portion of SW PA.

MAG do you think KPIT eeks out 4 or 5 or do you think the warm air is gonna win out as usual.

3k high rez has like 3-5 inches of course I'd air on the side of lower especially when it comes to CAD. Regardless maybe our biggest snowfall of the season coming.

To my untrained eyes NAM looks pretty good. We get a nice 3-6 thump (probably overdone with more sleet mixing) turning into freezing rain/mix and never change to plain rain.

At this point I just want to see some decent heavy snow even if the accumulations dont amount to a lot. I missed out on the death squall line a few weeks ago.

Just woke up from a nap and saw that myself. Maybe we can get lucky but the precip has to get in and out quick in order to get those heavy accumulations.

What's the kuchera say. Cant trust a 10:1 ratio map especially when you guys are dealing with CAD. I fully expect my area to feel the effects of the warm tongue on this one.

Everything just trends worse and worse. It just doesnt want to snow here this winter. I'm really getting tired of the rain. It wouldn't be so bad if it didnt rain everytine we get any sort of moderate amount of moisture. At this point I'd love an outright torch but even with the south east ridge and Pacific trough trying to warm us up we still ride the boundary. Unfortunately I know how this is gonna play out. MJO is going into phase 8-1-2 in March and we get a late snow storm and a delayed spring.

I refuse to even entertain the snow maps.

Euro shows a hit blah blah. It wont play out that way. Warm tongue will win out. No reason it wouldn't just going on our season trend this winter.

This doesnt look good now. The thing that sucks is that instead of outright torching we may just ride the border of being too warm to snow and just get cold rain. Not to mention the south east ridge is showing up now and usually that doesnt bode well for us.

Well winter is coming back. We will be tracking starting this weekend. There's at least that.

It never looked to crush us so it was easier to deal with it. Looks like the models are starting to catch onto the mjo going into 8-2.

The next threat will be south just watch.

Absolutely insane that we are getting another 2 inches of rain. I'm honestly sick of it. We are getting insane amounts of moisture but we just can't keep the cold air whenever the moisture arrives. Maybe with the MJO going into favorable phases we may can get something decent but I am skeptical.

Maybe a surprise 1-3 with the first wave of the storm before the warm air invades. Who knows maybe we can eek out 4 and get a nice little event before it all melts and floods everything.

Just like that it's a cutter.

Looks like some possible front end snow with the cutter but we never do well in those situations. That warm tongue will charge north and make sure we switch to rain as soon as possible.