Rd9108

We are probably going to get more snow from the Thursday deal at this point. Off topic but in hearing there is a ton of accidents all over the city. Don't drive if you don't have to.

Pretty crazy just like 10 days ago we were talking about possible record breaking cold and now we sweating rain for the same time period.

Also Thursday trended better on the euro.

Euro usually follows.

I'll stop now.

But I wanted 12 for Thursday. Toss.

My complaining isn't serious. I'm trolling. This winter has been a textbook success. We had a white Christmas and multiple moderate storms. Can't complain about that.

We need your negativity. It helped in December.

This too. Is what we are seeing a trend or is it the models wobbling back and forth? I think tomorrow's 12z models will be the do or die time.

Looks better than the 18z para atleast.

Lmao. Oh well I'm ready for golf weather anyway. Less to shovel too. I hope this totally busts and we get zero snow.

Seems the NAM does well when it deals with convection. 2016 every model except the NAM had that storm further east. The NAM ended up being correct with the storm hugging the coast a lot more. I believe I don't remember the year a big blizzard was supposed to hit NYC. The NAM had a run where it said no way and the storm whiffed big time. People were pissed that they shut down the city but we are talking about 50 miles being the difference between 2 ft and 4 inches. There's a reason why Mets don't really use the NAM as much as the Euro and GFS.

100%. Usually its way too far NW and we get suckered in to thinking we are going to get crushed by a coastal. Doesn't mean its not right this time.

Well let's see if the other models pick up on this trend. If they do I think its safe to say game over on a heavy snowfall.

Indeed. Once the WTOD shows up its game over.

The NAM looks weird before it had the low going to the coast now its showing up ramming up into our area and dry slotting us. Pretty big change.

Euro holding the line

I called the Youngstown special thats my call but I will say let's settle down when it comes to 18z models. If 0z looks as bad or worse than yes the trend isn't our friend.

I can imagine our area is probably a nightmare to forecast for the NWS.

So close to that 8-12. Gonna be close.

Nice. Hopefully we max out and get a foot.

I'm curious to see what the SREF plumes are gonna start showing. Its getting close to their useful range.

Looks like euro ticked south east from 0z. Good trends so far today. Need another few for some breathing room. Looking good for atleast a high end advisory event.

This. Hopefully its just the models overcorrecting NW and this ticks back southeast to give us some breathing room.