Not sure if its been mentioned but QPF slug has moved north on both the 18z Ukie and ICON... significantly so on the Ukie... sign of things to come on the 18z Euro?
Icon:
Ukie:
To me this lines up with what PSU said earlier about the northern gradient tightening up and becoming sharper... and that as long as you're inside 0.3" QPF you're gonna do okay. Looks like the Euro is tightening up the northern gradient
This is reminding me of Jan 2022 quite a bit... up here towards Baltimore we got a little less overall but it was still 4-6" of cold smoke... I would take that again in a heartbeat even if that means DC gets more like 8+"
I do feel like this 72-84h south shift that almost always re-corrects north in the final 24-48 has given us DC-Balt folks false hope just to be dashed away in the past... maybe, just maybe this time it can give us false concern this time...
Lot of models have wanted to paint this band of much lighter precip over Baltimore for several runs now and its really showing up on the HiRes stuff too... makes me a bit nervous.
I seem to remember a storm a few years ago that did this "crab claw" thing and it became a big joke on here but it really did screw people inside the claw