North Balti Zen

If you TRULY were the snow weenie you claim to be...your only choice is to skip your vacation...

That is the permanent color on his maps for my part of northern Maryland, tracker.

If we lose another one to the south, have half a mind to start a separate thread on here for in the future threats for those in a general line from @T. Augustover to @mitchnickand @TSSN+for future storm discussions... (kidding not kidding)

@mappy Moving this here for longer comment so as not to clutter the storm thread - I think DC area and either side of DC to the east and west is in a great spot in either a "souther" or "norther" scenario. They've been progged around 6 inches at worst in most every run save one. Our area and the area south of DC have varied between "hell yes" and "hell no" from run to run for days. My snow-missing PTSD has kicked in watching the Euro especially for us northerners. Which is to say, and this is why I moved this to banter, you are entirely correct that snow is an IMBY game and the board shows its teeth in winter storm set-ups. I just wanted to pause for a minute because some really good posters on here from the DC area really don't appreciate how long between drinks up this way it has been from a legit flush hit winter storm warning level storm. Six years by my count for my area. We were close to five inches in of the January storm in '24, but I don't think I quite got there at my house. The January 2022 miss was hilariously painful (watching Ji complain for weeks and then get ten or so inches of powder while this area got 1/2 an inch of dust sucked) - so, in any event, "it always comes north" stuff that gets blithely posted tends to rankle. It doesn't. In some set-ups, sure. In others, NOPE. This storm and its modeling shows it is one of those storms that is amenable to the best lift being forced south of northern parts of the forum - and THAT is something which we have seen over and over again for years. And, not just in winter, happened a LOT in the last few springs and summers (just that doesn't get commented on as much). In any event, as always, hoping for a path to an area-wide win (or at least as much of the area as possible), but seeing "thread the needle" from some of the red taggers with respect to the final pieces harshes my mellow up this way, and the Euro is really piling on the bad vibes. Again, I think DC folks and west and east of there are in a great spot in most scenarios. The eye of their needle looks appreciably larger than the eye of the needle for the Chill-area folk or the folk up our way (our best runs are the Chill-area's worst and vice versa). The tension in the posting on model runs is that. So when someone posts "norther" or "souther" doing drive-by PBP it really isn't helpful without calibrating that comment through their area. Good luck all, except, really, I mean, good luck to my area especially. We are overdue up here. One of these storms will not get shunted, I hope. Perhaps this one.

The euro is a real blaring warning signal for us. This would be another galling miss up this way if it unfolds like this.

It’s so weird. For years losetoa6 posted from there - I just assumed everyone knew Hanover area was part of “our” area. I mean, our forum encompasses the I-81 spine for godsake - those folks are as different winter weather wise from the Calvert county folks as you can get and we share the same forum - I don’t see why ten miles north of Manchester should be made to feel unwelcome.

It absolutely sucked.

Maybe? No reason you should know this but it is closing in on six years since a warning level event for northern Maryland outside of mtpsu. I’ve seen this a LOT in that timeframe - this area gets dried out and missss the goods to the south. Jan 3/4,2022 which was half a foot or so in Columbia and 6-10 from DC to Ji-land etc was less than an inch for my area of northern Baltimore county. Whatever dynamics go under “always goes north” haven’t been the dominant player for awhile. in any event, congrats to central VA up to DC on a nice set of runs.

Not up my way on that. Would be another wsw fail.

It is. It’s bad for up my way.

As always

@NorthArlington101 Um...you sure about that?

Just came out of a meeting and...I approve of what just ran from the ICON/GFS/GEM - well done all. You all get gold stars for the day.

Are you asking specific to modeling for this storm or is that a general question?

sigh. It is really pretty funny how we can't break that cap and have not for years and years now. Side note, when tracker (bless his heart) always types about how things always adjust north at the last minute...well...no? Has not been the case for awhile now - at least with respect to our area. Maybe this time, but, the pacman wall has done dirty work on us for a long time now. Jan. 2022 was beyond infuriating.

Seconded

No?

You can leave for vacation anytime now…

Years and years of this crap now up this way, it’s so tiring to see unfold over and over again.

That’s fucking awful.

YUP . ITS ALMOST HILARIOUS NOW

That would fit the six year drought of non-winter storm warning level events we are working on up this way, so, sure. I think I am permanently scarred from the January 2022 horror-show miss up this way...

Re: the Bourbon street attack - that is just so soul-crushing. That was literally where I just was for two of the three Billy Strings New Orleans shows - couldn’t make the NYE show because had to be back, so flew home yesterday. Our hotel was four blocks from where it happened. We literally spent large parts of Sunday snd especially Monday exploring the French quarter and met so many cool strangers (wearing a billy strings concert shirt when they are in a town is a cheat code to quick friendships) - and between the concert goers, the Georgia and notre dame fans, and general NYE attendees, the vibe and mood was immaculate. Just devastating to wake up to. I am so worried for some of the crew we met who were staying much closer to where it happened - the interval between when the NYE concert ended and when the attack occurred was two hours, enough time for folks to make their way back from the venue to the Quarter. as always, so senseless. Just soul renderingly sad for me to process, everything is so fresh from what had been two pretty magical days. I hope the people we met are ok. So devastated for the lives torn apart. sorry to be a bummer on new years morning, but this news hit me like an anvil to the face.

Right, I genuinely hope this thing comes north to give me a foot and you get sleet.

Correct, were I Ji 6z gfs is a complete disaster why does anyone do this stupid hobby…