qg_omega

Hard to get excited on something 35 days away

Big trough in the west where we want a ridge, chasing ghosts

Nice words Ray, my posts over the past many months have been dead on accurate but nice to see the personal attacks are back from you

Not sure what posting a composite from years with no relevance in our new climate normal proves anything, sorry.

No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA? I am not seeing it at all. PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.

Good lesson in the long range on models have no value, ensembles or operational. Growing consensus can disappear on the next run.

Great post, if you look back at the posts when we brought up Canada was an absolute torch we were told that doesn’t matter, don’t need Canada to be below normal to snow and well above normal in Canada is great. Facts matter, source regions matter, today we had 528 thickness over the south with rain. Now we are getting Canada a bit colder but negative PNA becomes entrenched with CONUS flooded with pacific air. Gradient will become a bit tighter vs the very weak gradient currently. Today temps in the northeast were similar to Florida, a hallmark of strong El Niño patterns

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress. I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections. It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

So we are now at Jan 20th with zero to date and temps 4 to 6 above average and no cause for concern?

Sounds like a stall in 2

Was going to drive up tonight but just bagged the trip, just not worth it

Fits the pattern, likely to verify

Opps

No signs of any pattern change for the next two weeks, 12z GFS is rinse and repeat

+3 to +5 throughout the Northeast

I had NYC +4 to +6, few if any had that. Looks to finish +5 and second warmest December ever.

Real post? Eggnog?

Already moving to Jan 20th

Wednesday rain was well modeled on OPs at 340 hours out, ensembles not so much

Few years ago had that massive pack for over a month. Remember had snow stuck in my wheel causing it to unbalance and it stayed like that for weeks. Unimaginable these days

Makes sense and fits the pattern and strong El Niño, have been warning on the south based block, see last winter

https://x.com/ayeejuju/status/1738972353848336605?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Yes, would take

Euro says No