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qg_omega

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Everything posted by qg_omega

  1. qg_omega
    Still see this as the main risk
  2. qg_omega
  3. qg_omega
    CFS MJO looks like EPS which given the background is GFS makes me think the GEFS is wrong
  4. qg_omega
    Looks like any snow will be gone in only a few days with the follow up cutter
  5. qg_omega
    Risk is suppression here not rain
  6. qg_omega
    Increased water vapor from the volcano combined with cleaner air due to reduced aerosol and sulfur pollution has rapidly accelerated the warming, this is fact and not debatable
  7. qg_omega
    No more ice castle in lake George, just too warm now in winter.
  8. qg_omega
    Not surprising given how bad the EPS has become, toss far and wide. Pattern > Modelology. Pattern says this is a swing and a miss. Need major changes to say otherwise.
  9. qg_omega
    Hard to get excited on something 35 days away
  10. qg_omega
    Big trough in the west where we want a ridge, chasing ghosts
  11. qg_omega
    Nice words Ray, my posts over the past many months have been dead on accurate but nice to see the personal attacks are back from you
  12. qg_omega
    Not sure what posting a composite from years with no relevance in our new climate normal proves anything, sorry.
  13. qg_omega
    No sign of that, why would we flip from an established negative PNA? I am not seeing it at all. PAC jet showing no signs of slowing down and conus is still being flooded by warmth.
  14. qg_omega
    Good lesson in the long range on models have no value, ensembles or operational. Growing consensus can disappear on the next run.
  15. qg_omega
    Great post, if you look back at the posts when we brought up Canada was an absolute torch we were told that doesn’t matter, don’t need Canada to be below normal to snow and well above normal in Canada is great. Facts matter, source regions matter, today we had 528 thickness over the south with rain. Now we are getting Canada a bit colder but negative PNA becomes entrenched with CONUS flooded with pacific air. Gradient will become a bit tighter vs the very weak gradient currently. Today temps in the northeast were similar to Florida, a hallmark of strong El Niño patterns
  16. qg_omega
    Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress. I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections. It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different
  17. qg_omega
    So we are now at Jan 20th with zero to date and temps 4 to 6 above average and no cause for concern?
  18. qg_omega
    Sounds like a stall in 2
  19. qg_omega
    Was going to drive up tonight but just bagged the trip, just not worth it
  20. qg_omega
    Fits the pattern, likely to verify
  21. qg_omega
    Opps
  22. qg_omega
    No signs of any pattern change for the next two weeks, 12z GFS is rinse and repeat
  23. qg_omega
  24. qg_omega
    +3 to +5 throughout the Northeast
  25. qg_omega
    I had NYC +4 to +6, few if any had that. Looks to finish +5 and second warmest December ever.
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