Blizzard of 93

I must have actually slept until April 1st… Happy April Fools Day everyone!

I must have slept for 5 days… Happy Friday everyone!

I merely answered the question of when the comeback starts?

Lol, how about you don’t accuse me of anything & stop freaking posting?

This is great info from @psuhoffman : The high is to the NW not N or NE of the system which is less suppressive. If you're referring to my comments about the analogs typically being a NW storm...I pointed out those setups didn't have the cold and high pressure to the extreme we have so it changes things. But those setups all ended up NW of progged at 100 hours. The true arctic boundary is through DC leading into the event. Yes there is cold well to our south but its not deep cold...the cold boundary down in the TN valley is shallower cold. We've got major snows well up into our area that started with a boundary there. But the key is for the wave associated with the arctic front to be the one that activates and amplifies NOT the one along the coastal front. That does not mean a cutter...the storm type I am thinking here with a somewhat similar h5 progression (DOES NOT MEAN THIS STORM GETS TO THE LEVEL OF THESE) is 1996, Feb 2006, March 2017. March 2017 is the best example of a TPV split where the storm rides up in between with a very similar H5 track of the upper low. What screwed us in that storm was the arctic boundary wave to our west amplified too much and held on way too long. I am NOT saying that should happen...but that the wave on that boundary should be the one with more focus not down over the SE so far disconnected from all the energy. Feb 2006 we had boudary issues but the 850 line was way down further south than it is here. That storm also had a wave on the arctic boundary that helped draw it up or it would have been way OTS had it focused on the coastal front. Same with 1996. If you amplify the wave a bit more along the arctic front that shallow cold south of the arctic boundary can be overcome really easy. Watch how fast that boundary can rocket NW if you amplify a wave along the boundary just a little. God knows we've seen that kill us 10000 times, why can't it help us once? When I look at the H5 track I don't see a suppressed look...usually the heaviest snow ends up close to the base of the H5 track northward and that is coming across out our latitude. It's rare to see a big snowstorm hit Richmond and Ocean City from a cut off H5 low that tracks through Ohio and PA. Find me a good example of that. If the H5 looked like this...March 1980... I would be really worried. Some other storms that Jacked SE of DC, and all of these at least got 6" into the DC Baltimore area but the Jack was SE of 95...but look at the H5 and how suppressive it is or how far south in some cases a cut off Now look at the H5 even on the GFS for our system and this is the most hostile h5 look of all the runs today...but one of these h5 does not look like all the others! Ive been looking at SE misses, you know how I obsess over every thing that can go wrong, and I don't see any that look like this at H5. That doesn't mean I think a NW miss is likely...I think the colder regime here offsets a H5 look that without a crazy 1050 high WOULD be an issue for a possible NW track. I could also see a SE miss if we had a really weak system. That isnt suppression its just a weak system not amplifying enough to gain latitude. I would be more worried about runs that don't show much snow anywhere and a 3-6" snow missing to our SE. That is very believable. But a storm amplified enough to cause a 12" snow somewhere with the H5 low that far to the NW and a flow that is not at all suppressive just sliding ENE and OTS, well its not the profile of our SE misses with 12" snows just to our SE. That said...I guess there is a first time for everything... or maybe the models end up right but for the wrong reason and the wave trends to a disconnected weak POS and there is no 10" plus snows anywhere! That would be a more typical way to miss in this h5 setup. But I don't see a scenario where MO gets 16" of snow and a wave is approaching us from the TN/OH valley with that h5 look and suddenly it gets suppressed to our south. That doesn't add up to me. I am not trying to be confrontational...I am always open to learning and I am wrong plenty so I am willing for anyone to show me where I am wrong here...I just don't see any comps to this. What I do see when I tried to find similar setups with a splitting TPV under a west based block where the western lobe splits and cuts off over the upper midwest are mostly storms that ended up if anything more amplified than we want, not less.

12z tomorrow we make a comeback

We always do… Most our memorable storms have had doubts & off runs of models mixed in just a couple of days out from the event.

The set up is there for a classic memorable storm if the players come together just right.

The players are on the field & multiple runs of many models have shown a major storm off & on the last few days. The upside potential is certainly there, but I think many here would be just fine with a widespread Warning level event.

Let’s see if the Euro bounces back at 18z. Hopefully just a 1 run hiccup at 12z that still gave the the LSV 6 to 10. We have the ICON & UKIE with a MECS. We have 4 days to go & lots on the table.

Hopefully HH GFS moves in a better direction.

Ukie & ICON

I understand, but you can’t deny his knowledge. Sorry I shared the educated opinion of a professional Met with thousands of paid followers & corporate clients all over the world…

Very Iconic!

This is 1000000% his wheelhouse. He knows east coast storm history & pattern recognition better than most. He is at his best in these scenarios.

Great post & this is far from decided. Joe Bastardi has a post from this afternoon saying the models that jumping the low out are keying on the wrong boundary. He believes the storm will continue up the coast to deliver a major storm. His analog blend for this storm are January 96, January 16 & April 1982.

It’s nice that today we actually got a snow front ender than gave many of a sold 1 or 2 inches before the mix. It makes these type of events more tolerable & it pads the season stats.

Mixed over abruptly a few minutes ago to sleet/freezing rain. Temp 31 currently. 2 inches of snow before mixing .

Moderate snow continues in Marysville. Plows down, looks to be around 2 inches.

12z Euro certainly not showing the top end solution like last night, but it still does manage to get a 6 to 10 inch event to the LSV this run. Still a way to go, but we are very much in the game for a high end event.

MDT reported .25 mile visibility snow last Ob.

Wow to the Ukie !

Can you please post a panel or two before this timestamp?

Hopefully the Euro holds in about an hour.

Flake size increasing. All surfaces caved quickly in Marysville.