Blizzard of 93

Nice! The 9pm Obs show that it has flipped to snow in Williamsport, Selinsgrove, & State College.

I wouldn’t mind the 2 to 3 inches that the 0z NAM shows for my yard either.

Here are some short term models. The 18z NAM & 18z HRDPS. The LSV is still in the game.

Yes, but the general public & businesses need something better to go on. It’s not really a dependable forecast if they wait until the event is underway to make a call. I understand that’s it’s best to make a conservative forecast. However, if the 12z models are close to correct, & we get a few inches of snow tomorrow, then most people are going to be caught off guard.

The differences between the State College & Mt. Holly forecast offices are striking. Western Chester & Berks counties are under Winter weather advisories for 3 to 5 inches of snow. Meanwhile, CTP only has 1 inch or less forecast for Lancaster & Lebanon counties. Mt. Holly has 4 inches for Reading & 2 for Coatesville. CTP basically ignored the snow last week when many places in the LSV got their first inch or 2 of snow, so maybe things will work out better for us if they ignore tomorrow as well. It’s just hard to believe that they ignored completely the 12z model suite that showed multiple models giving the LSV a couple of inches of snow. Maybe they will wait until after 0z runs tonight before they make a call for the LSV?

The EPS looked good for our snow chances tomorrow. It looks like the LSV gets into the good band of precip tomorrow.

Which model is showing this?

Yes sir, it sure does. The Euro is the best model run yet for the LSV & most of CTP. Solid Advisory level event if this verified.

The Short range Canadian models say yes to snow tomorrow in the LSV.

I just saw the 12z GFS & it gets the LSV into the decent snow tomorrow!

Where is our friend from Williamsport these days?

Yes, if we get into the wrap around deform band for a little while, we could be in store for a little more snow. We just need to see how it all plays out. Here is that 12z NAM panel & another view of the snow map.

Just for fun, here is that HRRR 12z run snow total map. If only....

I just ripped this gem of an HRRR run from the Mid Atlantic thread that was recently posted there.

The 6z EPS ensemble still keeps the LSV in the in the game for 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow.

Dew points are in the low to mid 20’s for most of CTP. Surface Temps will go down even further when precip begins.

There seems to be a consensus at this time with the global ensembles today. The LSV looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch of snow range, with amounts increasing the further north & east that you go in PA.

Good morning @MAG5035 Please let us know your thoughts on this complex storm for CTP.

The Winter Weather Advisory has now been added to include the LSV. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 354 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-302200- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.191201T0600Z-191201T1800Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 354 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain developing late tonight and changing to primarily freezing before daybreak. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Untreated roads and sidewalks could be icy Sunday morning

Here are the latest NAMs for 18z (1pm) Sunday .

Yes, in the afternoon, many of us will warm above freezing. In the early morning through midday, ice will probably cause problems on some roads even in the LSV.

This map is for 21z...late afternoon on Sunday..., i am merely saying that Ice will be a problem at least in the morning hours. Sure, it will warm up in the afternoon. Why downplay the chance of ice ? Countless times over the years ice has held on for hours after originally forecast. Also, it only takes a small amount of ice to cause a massive problem on the roads.

The LSV is notorious for holding on to low level cold air. Please see the short range & meso models. Ice will be a problem Sunday am in the LSV & all of CTP.

Add the latest RGEM to the LSV being included in the frozen frozen precip early Sunday.

Winter Storm Watches & Advisories are flying all over our region for tomorrow night through Monday. I think that we will see the advisories added for at least 1 more layer of counties to the south & even possibly for all of us north of the MD line. Many models have shown front end frozen precip for the MD line & north for several days. The models even have had this area in play for a little snow from the Upper level low & coastal low that develops on Monday. The short range High Res models, along with the Euro should lock in on this over the next 24 hours. The 18z NAMs have most of the LSV starting as an icy mix tomorrow night. Maybe CTP wants to see one or 2 more model cycles before they add the LSV to the Advisory.