Blizzard of 93

Please, let’s hope you bring the mojo!

@psuhoffman had a great explanation earlier today in the Mid Atlantic thread. To sum up, nothing came together that needed to in an overall pattern that was not supportive for a coastal storm. I’ve moved on to the boundary chance later next week. Hopefully we are on the right side.

Also, the EPO could potentially be our saving grace. If it’s forecast on the 12z EPS today of heading toward neutral & slightly negative comes to fruition, then that could help our cause in this boundary type of pattern that is starting later next week.

The end of next week has my attention. After our early week warm up, the cold will press & just pushed further south & east by Thursday. Right now, most models have the boundary stalling out near the PA-MD line. Then, a series of storms look to ride up the boundary between Thursday night & Saturday. A few models today gave northern & western PA a good amount of snow, & brought mixed precip to Central PA. We don’t need much of an additional push south & east of the boundary to put most of us on the wintry side. Hopefully we are on the right side for one of these. It will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few days.

MDT is sitting at around 5 inches of snow this season so far. MDT just needs another 6 to 10 inches of snow this season to avoid a historic disaster. Here is the CTP chart for the snow for the last 40 years at MDT. 7 seasons had 15 inches or less of snow just since 1980. We have lots of time to make up ground, but we will need a really good double digit storm to have a chance of hitting 31 inches at MDT to beat climo average this year.

Well, if nothing else works out before, the 18z GFS delivered a major storm in only 14 days ! One of these has to hit ? Maybe ? Possibly? Hopefully? Dream on? We still have 8 weeks of tracking potential! It’s not over until it’s over...

Yes, I’m not throwing in the towel. We have seen many times, in all seasons, these type of storms travel further north & west than modeled. We don’t need too much of a correction to get at least a minor event from this storm.

The only model right now that gives us a chance for weekend snow is the 6z NAM.

But it didn’t match the 18z EPS...

The 18z EPS also moved a little back west & has a good cluster of low tracks that could deliver some snow this weekend. The final track might not be known on this one until sometime Friday until all of the players are on the field. It wouldn’t take much to bring this back to a decent light to moderate event for many of us just like several models have shown on & off since late last week.

The 6z GFS & 6z ICON storm still keep the chance of some snow from the coastal on Saturday for us.

So, after looking over the 0z runs tonight, we need to root for the GFS & UKMET. The 0z Canadian & Euro were wide right. The UKMET has the coastal on a similar track as the GFS, but the low is stronger to our south & further deepens to the northeast. I would sign up for the GFS right now.

The 18z EPS also took a step in the right direction. There is a good cluster of lows that take an ideal storm track for the Susquehanna Valley. I’m interested in what the 0z runs have to say tonight.

The 18z GEFS also took a good step in the right direction for the weekend potential. The cluster of low tracks trended closer to the coast & the overall precip increased well inland.

The 18z GFS & 18z ICON both brought the coastal low close enough to the coast to produce some snow in CTP this weekend. There are still 5 days to go. Hopefully 0z runs tonight continue to go in the right direction.

The overnight EPS & GEFS said to not give up yet in this weekend’s snow chance.

The GFS did not phase the 2 streams. It was disjointed & brought out the storm in 2 pieces. One piece on Saturday & one on Sunday, unfortunately both go wide right off of the Coast too far south to be a factor. Let’s see what the Canadian & Euro say.

By the way, I’m just having a little fun with these posts.

We have 2 more months of winter tracking before our warm months hibernation begins.

I think anyone who says the storm is a lock or a bust 6 days out might be nuts.

Why, the weekend chance is far from decided. 6 days to go.

Also, the 18z EPS still has a good storm signal for this weekend at the end of its run at 144 Hours. Let’s see what the 0z runs have to say.

Great post ! Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying.

I’m just rooting for team North America from the 12z runs today that I posted earlier.

You mentioned the JMA & yes it is wide right at 12z for next weekend.