Blizzard of 93

Let’s agree to disagree on JB. I think that he is great. A lot of major companies pay him for his forecast abilities. He must know a thing or two about forecasting the weather...

He is fantastic with pattern recognition & understands past weather patterns like few people in the business. He actually tries to analyze patterns & takes an in depth look at the past, instead of just relying on models. Yes, he can be wrong & has a heavy cold & snow bias, but his analysis is always very detailed, informative & entertaining. I have learned a ton from him over the years. His posts & videos make each Winter day interesting for me, even when the season is not going well. He loves snow, just like many of us on here, & he always provides hope that the pattern can change. I know that he had his detractors, but those like me who follow him each day know that his knowledge & passion for the weather is unmatched in the business.

Thanks. I think it’s going to be a very active over the next few weeks. With the -EPO starting later this week, we should have plenty of chances. We will probably be on the wrong side for some of the chances, but I believe that we can win some as well. Joe Bastardi today compared the upcoming pattern to February of 93-94. MDT had a top ten winter winter that year with over 70 inches of snow. I was in High School that year. I remember that February & March that there was a storm every week that would give several inches of snow topped with a little ice. Just to our south, these same storms in the I-95 area had mixing & rain. I am just looking forward to getting back in the game. Hopefully we get back on the snow board by this weekend. Then we will have 6 or 7 more weeks to make a run at climo average snow.

There is a growing model consensus for a possible snow event this weekend. The boundary storms finally all move through by the end of Friday. The last one still could end as some snow on Friday. Then colder air moves in for Saturday, which could set the stage for a later Saturday into Sunday snow event. The good news is that the EPS is now jumping onboard to this storm idea.

Things are about to get good, thanks to the -EPO that is coming soon.

There is still a lot to resolve with the boundary storms this week with regard to precip types, timing & final tracks. The models are getting interested in another winter storm chance this weekend that could be our best chance this week of getting a possible all snow event.

Nice post bump ! You said at the start of this thread to find you some snow.... Even if this week doesn’t produce, I think that we will have more chances over the next 2 weeks & beyond.

Happy hour 18z GFS changes that last wave on Friday to snow for all of CTP! Maybe it will be right or even half right for once ? At least it’s only 5 days out.

@MAG5035 I think that the EPO diving toward negative around the 7th and then staying negative through at least mid month if not beyond will drive the pattern. The MJO is staying week near the COD with the latest forecasts. If it stays muted & does not take a big loop way out in the warm phases, then I think the -EPO can drive the pattern. The EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles all agree in the -EPO heading toward neutral & then stay negative starting later this week. I think that the Operational models will respond more to this now that we are inside of 1 week for the EPO flip to negative.

It already stopped in Marysville. No heavy coating this time !

Congrats! Light snow has now Started in Marysville

That’s great! We are making Chicken Chili & Italian Brisket sandwiches for the Super Bowl. Today could be nice with “snow TV” out the window & the game later on !

The 6z models all show a dusting to 1 inch of snow today for the LSV & a little more up towards I-80 is possible. @Itstrainingtime , it’s time for another “heavy coating” today !

The 0z Euro looks decent for the chance of a heavy coating of snow for most of CTP tomorrow.

@MAG5035 Any snow out your way currently? What are your thoughts for snow possibilities in your area & the Susquehanna Valley?

Radar looks fairly decent in western PA & most stations in the western half of PA are reporting light snow with temps in the low 30s as of 10pm.

The 18z GEFS had a nice uptick in colder solutions for later this week.

Yes, it’s nice to have cold air pressing in this time for a change this year. I agree, sometimes the models underestimate the cold air press. Also, once the cold pushes in, I’m not so sure that it will retreat much for that last storm for Friday am. Usually with this set up, each storm will ride up the boundary a little further south & east than the previous one. It should be an interesting week of tracking.

The 18z GFS continues the trend of getting colder for the boundary storm potentials for late Wednesday into Friday. There is now more mixed precip further south into MD. Some snow even gets into the LSV, except for the far southeast. This period is getting more interesting with each run.

Yes, the Euro did look icy for CTP later this week.

Here is the EPO forecast from the overnight EPS. A negative EPO is one of better way ways to get a cold & stormy pattern into the east.

The 12z GFS was a winter weather dream run. Besides the mixed potentials later next week, it has 2 more winter events over the next 2 weeks. First, it has a minor Clipper type storm next weekend. Then, it showed a major Miller B storm for Valentine’s Eve. It’s Shocking (inset sarcasm font...) to see that as soon as everyone (not in here necessarily) cancelled Winter, we could be looking at an exciting 2 weeks of tracking. Thank you Mr. EPO !

The 12 GFS trended colder & brings a good amount of mixed precip to CTP & snow to northern & western areas of PA later this week with 2 of the boundary storms.

The 12z NAM & RGEM like the idea of a little snow this weekend for parts of the LSV.

The 6z 3k NAM also is bringing 2 rounds of light snow later today & then later tomorrow to southern PA.