Blizzard of 93

Usually confluence is over modeled and slowly backs off closer to the event.

With the low tucked in to the DelMarVa like the GFS shows, I think the precip shield would push heavier snow further north & west in PA.

The Lancaster crew will love the 12z GFS but the I-99 crew will not!

Here are the 12z NAMs for tomorrow. They have indeed juiced back up!

Let’s do this! I am fired up!

It sounds like an Advisory may be incoming for tomorrow for the LSV. CTP has a fantastic discussion on tomorrow’s appetizer event. They really brought their “A” game for this write up! “A decent short wave trough over the lower MS valley around midnight will zip northeast and not really tilt negative, rather ride on the SWrly flow aloft. The influx of moisture will deepen a sfc low over the Deep South, scooting it mainly east, crossing the East Coast around Norfolk Monday afternoon. The dynamics do impress with a good shield of warm-advection precip overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states. The northern extent of the precip looks like it will be around I-80 or just to the north. The temps aloft are favorable for snow for all of the CWA, with good omega/up-motion in the favorable dendritic snow growth zone of -10 to -15C layer aloft. A deep moist layer beneath this DGZ will fatten the dendrites. Lift looks like it will be maximized over the srn tier, esp right along the PA Turnpike on Monday morning. Expect temps to fall into the l-m30s during the first part of tonight before the clouds and snow move in. While there could be a mix of rain and snow along the Mason-Dixon Line and just a few miles north, much of the initial precip should be snow, and a wet/high-water-content snow at that. Some of the hi- res models are projecting a risk of 1"/hr rates in the morning as banded precip should develop on the NW side of the baroclinic leaf. The higher probabilities of the brief heavy snow rates will be along the Turnpike and either side of it by 30-40 miles. The trips here are the sfc temps and fast forward motion of the storm. The storm is only producing precip over the CWA for 6-8 hrs. The temps in the area where the snow is falling should wet-bulb down to near and slightly below freezing and stay there until the snow starts to lighten up. Have tried to paint that into the temp grids. The highest snowfall totals will be in the higher elevations in the first tier of counties. Mt Davis, South Mtn and the Furnace Hills will likely see 1-3" more than the lower elevations around them. We have chosen to raise the snowfall numbers. After collaboration with our neighboring offices, we decided to not issue an advisory at this time, but this looks like a fairly solid advy (2-3") snowfall for much of the srn tier or two of counties, esp due to the timing (morning rush). The next shift may have to do the heavy lifting. The morning rush hour is a worry at this point because of the expected arrival/start time of the snow. This may be an accumulation which occurs mainly on the grass and colder surfaces. But, if the road temps are warmer, the travel impacts may turn out to be less than currently expected.”

Back to the present, the 6z GFS and NAM both have some snow for the LSV with the appetizer event tomorrow.

Looking beyond the pending major storm this week, the 0z Euro is dialing up another winter storm chance next Sunday into Monday. Could you imagine if we had 3 measurable snows in 1 week!?!

Good morning! Great coverage of the Euro on here last night everyone! I needed to get some sleep. It’s going to be an awesome week of tracking! Here is the 0z EPS. Great mean low placement and a tremendous amount of precip.

Yes, I remember looking at the heavy snow totals about 1 week before that historic storm. Then, the NAM got into range and started producing the crazy amounts that ended up verifying!

Here is the Canadian.

The great storms lock in early!

Yes, I already got a little grief today about the ramped up, non-stop tracking. I told her that this week will make up for No real tracking last year!

This map is 10-1 ratio for just the main Wednesday/Thursday event (not including Monday)

Yes indeed! Crushed!

It’s 2020...why not something else crazy like this!

The 0z GFS agreed with the 0z NAM and brings a solid appetizer event for Monday to the LSV,

It might help to get some of us back in winter storm shape to have an event on Monday to shake the rust off after the non-winter of last year!

It will be interesting to see if the rest of the 0z models ramp back up for the Monday event?

Here is a close up of the NAM for Monday.

Easy answer...NO !!!

@psuhoffman did a great analysis on this earlier. Either way, we should be in great shape. Let’s take any snow anytime that we can get it! If Monday delivers too, then bring it!

The 18z EPS & Control say Lancaster is in great shape! The Euro dominates the GFS in these type of events.

Accuweather has an early map out that is very aggressive. Usually they have very conservative maps, but they seem all in on this storm! For some reason it won’t copy on here, but they have a large area of 12-18 inches that covers a good chunk of CTP.

Our Lancaster folks will really like the 18z EPS Control run!