Blizzard of 93

Great forecast discussion from CTP for today’s event. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quite a difficult forecast with PTYPE and intensity concerns muddying the otherwise expected snow/ice gradient acrs our CWA from NE to SW. 1027 mb sfc high was located over KIPT early today with light and variable wind and gradually increasing high clouds streaming in from the west. A perfect setup to maintain deep cold llvl air prior to the arrival of precip. The nose of a very strong low-mid lvl south to swrly jet over 60 kts will push up and over the steep southern and western edge of the sfc cold dome, locked in across Central and Eastern PA. Temps starting out mainly between 10-20F with T/Td spreads of a few to 10 deg F will set the stage for some vigorous UVVEL from this LLJ (and possibly surprisingly heavy burst of snow) for 1-3 hours late this afternoon and evening with Max Wet Bulb temps aloft only 0.5-1 deg C above freezing (in the 800-750 mb layer with 900-875 mb temps as low as -6 to -7C) providing an optimal setup for steep ascent for large snowflake aggregates and potential 1-2 inch per hour rates from near or just east of KUNV north and east to KIPT and KSEG. An elevated unstable layer with mean 850-750 mb LIs near or just below 0C will advance as far north as the RT22/322 corridor during the mid to late evening hours with some thunder snow/sleet expected across the SW third to half of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... Snow, heavy at times will be found across the NE third of the CWA this evening with a gradually transition to a several hour period of moderately heavy sleet across the region near and to the SW of RT 322 from KFIG to KUNV and KMDT, while the depth of degree of the elevated warm nose will support a lengthy period of mainly FZRA further SW across the Laurel Highlands. The occluded front moves through the region late tonight with just some shallow strato cu and areas of light snow or fzdz through the predawn hours. Snow accums will range from 1 inch or less over the Laurels to between 2-3 inches near the RT 322 corridor to between 3-4 inches with locally higher amounts possible across the higher terrain near and to the North and East of KIPT. Ice accums of 0.25-0.35 inch appear highly likely across the Laurel Highlands. Latest model guidance indicates most likely onset times of wintry precip range from around 15Z south of the turnpike from Somerset to Franklin counties, mid afternoon along the I-80 corridor and early evening over the northern tier counties.

Good morning, I’m hoping a little over performer today as well. Here’s the 12z HRRR for today.

@Voyager this is your revised WWA today. Now says up to 3 inches for you. Maybe the HRRR “sniffed” it out, lol.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 PAZ004-010>012-017>019-045-046-049>053-058-090300- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.250208T2000Z-250209T0800Z/ Warren-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Renovo, Pottsville, Clearfield, Warren, Selinsgrove, Philipsburg, St. Marys, State College, Sunbury, Lock Haven, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Danville, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Emporium, Ridgway, Berwick, and DuBois 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...A few hour period of moderate to heavy snow possible late this afternoon and early this evening, then sleet followed by light freezing rain late. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 2 and 3 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-090300- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.250208T1800Z-250209T0800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry- Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Mount Union, Lebanon, Huntingdon, Gettysburg, Altoona, Lewistown, Carlisle, Harrisburg, Lancaster, Mifflintown, York, Chambersburg, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Hershey, and Newport 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Any untreated roads or sidewalks will be treacherous. CTP revised the WWA for the LSV & South central PA this am for up to 2 inches of snow/sleet followed by freezing rain later today.

Ok, just for you… The upcoming blocking pattern could support a strong coastal…fun times are possibly ahead the rest of the month.

You’re right…the last several runs of the HRRR even show a couple of inches down to the PA turnpike. Maybe we get a little surprise… or it’s on something as you said, lol.

Sorry to hear that man! Hopefully we have a good trend for Tuesday to try to brighten your day.

0z Euro AI had a very slight tick North with the overall extent of precip over its last run for the 24 hour period for the Tuesday into Wednesday am chance.

0z Euro AI had a very slight tick North with the overall extent of precip over its last run for the 24 hour period for the Tuesday into Wednesday am chance.

0z Canadian had a nice front end thump with the Wednesday night wave before we mix in Thursday this run.

Again, this was never a snow storm! Please stop

The 0z NAMs both bring a good amount of sleet tomorrow.

The ice storm yesterday & the storm tomorrow were NEVER supposed to be snow events for the LSV! These were Always mix slop storms for us. Our first real snow chance is Tuesday.

I did just have to delete a ton of attachments to make room for the next rounds of…. wait for it… More Snow maps!

0z HRRR is interesting for Tomorrow with the snow & sleet combo.

Well, the event has not happened yet & I don’t think anyone necessarily believed the huge totals for the Tuesday event. I still think a moderate 3 to 6 event for the LSV is Very Much on the table. After that, the pattern remains loaded with potential as the Ops & ensembles have been advertising for days. It’s just a matter of time until we get a flush hit over the next couple of weeks.

Still plenty of time for these waves to shift around a bit over the next few days. The Tuesday wave looks to be trending further south at this time. I think it’s possible for the Wednesday night into Thursday wave to trend a bit south. Maybe we end up with 2 solid Advisory events 48 hours apart?

The Wednesday night into Thursday wave brings another round of Advisory snow to most of CTP.

Also, being on the North side of the shield, we could do a little better with decent ratios.

@mitchnick As you mentioned in the other thread, The EPS still gets us an Advisory level event on Tuesday.

Hopefully it’s a case of delayed, but not denied… It’s hopefully just a matter of time until we cash in sometime over the next 2 weeks.

The overnight ensemble runs through day 15/16 continue to produce the unprecedented totals. ALL 3 global ensembles ALL Week Run after run… Stay buckled up!

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday. Steady run after run…good thing to see with the best model.

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday