Blizzard of 93

Here is the official Watch. You can only “see” the “blue” Watches on York & Lancaster on the county map graphics because of their @canderson Wind Advisory is taking precedence tonight!

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 630 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 PAZ033>036-063>066-161130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 630 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest accumulations will be on the hilltops. The storm track for this event is fairly far to our south. So any shift southward in the storm track could keep snow totals lower than current expectations. However, this storm will produce fluffier snow than the previous one. That could make it easier for the snow totals to increase.

How much for Marysville?

lol, I’m sure they’ll get around to updating their grids by the time the first flakes fly!

lol, please note “correctly predicted” Watches would be posted…

CTP did do a better job with the LSV forecast for the event a few days ago. The local TV stations had laughably low forecasts the day before the event. There were lots of surprised people that had no idea we would get 5 to 7 inches of snow in the Harrisburg area.

Someone mentioned earlier that there were not enough snow maps posted… Lol, here we go! For the purposes of my yard & MDT, I’m leaning heavily on this selection of 18z models.

lol, you rang …?!

I also have had the theory for years that if State College is not in play for the bullseye, they are not as interested & need to play catch up whenever they feel the need. Look at the storm a few days ago, State College was in the alleged bullseye 2 days out, so Watches & Warnings got hoisted super early. Then as @MAG5035 & others pointed out, they held on to the Warning way too long in the central counties and somehow had a Warning showing for only 2-4!

lol…I wonder who mentioned that earlier….?

Fantastic & thanks for working in DuBois!

This made my lunch break fantastic! Might need Watches for the LSV if the Euro is right & the other models beef up a little!

York actually gets to Warning level of 5 this run.

6z Euro is getting close to Warning criteria in the LSV. Precip total near .35 indicates ratios near 15-1 this run based on the Kuchera.

6z RGEM is ok for the LSV but the MD crew will not approve this run.

You, Mitch & Cash would get a Warning event if this verifies.

21 in Marysville with 18 dew point.

6z ICON juiced up for Saturday. I only have the 10-1 map, but with ratios this would be a little more snow.

The good old Tropical tidbits maps that people post all the time are the same thing with the 6 hr deal. Look at the top line on the upper left….same as it’s always been.

They also offer 3 hr precip & 1 hr precip for the short term. These same maps have been posted for years…. Nothing new.

0z EPS had its best run yet for this event & put the LSV in the sweet spot this run.

The Euro certainly juiced up at 0z.

21z SREF mean juiced up over its previous runs today.

Can you please tell us that MDT will get no snow on Friday night….? Lol, We need this from you every event!