WinterWolf

Almost two days....but who's counting.

Oh I agree it'll be gone....but was just curious if it was tropical that's all. Not much else to talk about as of now...so I thought I'd inquire about what it was depicting??

944 is monster storm....is it tropical in nature??? Or just an Autumn monster??

This is a good post in answering my question WxWatcher007..... I agree that this situation shows us there is much to learn. Yes, nobody expected a 919mb Behemoth on their hands from what it started out as....reminds me of that saying: From Tiny Acorns, Come Big Oaks. Michael was a "Big Oak" that came from small humble beginnings.

Personally I think it had a lot to do with the timing of its intensity cycle...which was as perfectly timed as can be, with regard to where it bombed/was bombing On its journey to the coastline. Most seem to bomb much farther out...and then undergo ERC’s as they approach, which weakens the system some for a while...Michael never had a chance to have that happen to him...cuz he was bombing so close to the coast. The perfect storm so to speak in that regard...

It’s funny cuz you say that the shear environment was something that could have negatively impacted Michael. And Ginxy says the shear environment was “favorable” for intensification of Michael. I dont know know which one it is...but Ginxy’s idea seems to be the one that was correct...cuz Michael became about as strong as he could practically be. Or if The shear environment was truly hostile...why didn’t it do its dirty work to Michael, like it does to every other Hurricane?? Very interesting to say the least.

This was my point exactly! Intensity forecast sucked big time...but did you see how some came right to the defense of the NWS/NHC. Making it look like the intensity forecast was just fine, cuz Monday afternoon they started to say maybe a major cane was possible. I realize this is a very tough area of forecasting...but sometime you have to just admit poor performance, and where things need improvement. But my thoughts are like yours ...Lots of work to do on this for sure.

For the General public for the most part....it is the only number that matters. If Michael had a larger than normal chance to Rapidly Intensify...Perhaps the NHC should have put in a caveat that, hey this is our official forecast, BUT we are seeing signs that this could explode into something much more significant. I realize that this was the worst case scenario, and most times this doesn't ever come close to happening. But it just shows that forecasting the intensity of these tropical systems is in its infancy....or at least so it seems???

Very True. But it was brushed off because it was forecast to be a minimal Cat 1 over the Weekend. Then the transformation started to begin Monday afternoon and overnight....and by Tuesday he was off to the races and the seriousness started to set in, as it should have.

What becomes the most apparent with Michael, is our lack of skill in forecasting tropical system intensity. On Saturday the official forecast was for a minimal hurricane coming into the panhandle...wow how this just exploded continually right up to the end.

Wow that changed from nothing of consequence, to quite a lot of rain all of a sudden???

He and Camille are brother and sister lol....only separated by 49 years.

Well it's West of guidance now...so that may have something to do with it?

Thanks Jerry...I thought so this morning when I saw it had strengthened so much.

No Doubt!! What a Spectacle. Most Impressive.

I think the chances of this weakening in the next 5-6 hours before landfall, are very low. He's on an uptick as he's approaching the coast....it's full steam ahead with this one now it looks like. The amazing part is...nobody saw a High end Cat 4 coming back on Saturday....just mind boggling that everything has come together like this.

Really Tip?? We go through this with every powerful storm....It's the Wonder/amazement of the Meteorology of the whole thing that people like us get caught up in(nobody is wishing it to kill and wreak havoc...but it's gonna do just that whether it's a high end Cat 4 as it is now, or a 5). I mean is there really a need to even state things like that anymore. This is a weather board...people love extreme weather...especially people into the weather.

Pressure down again..winds up again!

Those were gusts Jerry...this will have gusts of 180 most likely.

Camille redux...further east!! What a Monster..and strengthening still.... saturday they were talking a minimal cat 1 perhaps....amazing how these intensity forecasts are just so difficult to forecast 3 -4 days out.

Did you mean road-kill, When you said lots of road?

Bring it!!!!!!!! Lol. You’ll live Sugarloaf.

Hmm very interesting question there...Opal was 1995 correct? Maybe things are lining up...

Yes sir...he may be a strengthening Cane coming ashore this time around.

No torch today... but yes it will be warm tomorrow and Wednesday.