Spartman

We may have already turned on the faucet. Same thing happened in 2011. Several wet months that year, especially the Spring and Fall. One of the wettest years ever for many, followed by the dreaded Winter 2011-12.

Feels like we've been cheated out a Spring this year. Too many cutoff lows this month, for sure. September 2011 had something similar when two cutoff lows, combined, dominated over half the days of the month resulting in a record wet September. Looks like it may very continue into next month. The end of the 00z Euro run: Also, the MJO's been stuck in the Circle of Death phase all month. According to JB, the last time MJO's stuck in the Circle of Death the entire month of May was back in May 2012, though that was followed by a very hot summer. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922477577555366262

Wouldn't be fine when JB officially starts talking about Memorial Day weekend, as of this morning. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922282897592971662 CFS v2 and CPC agree. CFS v2: CPC: There are a lot of times that cold Memorial Day weekends have been followed by cooler than normal summers like 2003, 1996, or 1992. Also, the NAO and PNA will be negative by that time while the AO is near neutral.

This year is shot. Ready for 2026 already.

Not fine according to 18z GFS. Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s): The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s):

6-10 day: 8-14 day: Just in time for Memorial Day weekend :sarcasm:

8-14 day: Lookin' wet 12z Euro: 18z GFS: Judah bringing up Greenland Blocking leading to a chilly 4th week of May as the large disruption by March's polar vortex comes to an end. https://x.com/judah47/status/1920869876068970801 Another Omega Block shaping up the week before Memorial Day weekend? https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1921357712945734046

Speaking of Memorial Day, the 18z GFS run has a bit of an ugly look for this Memorial Day weekend with a potential cutoff low and being stuck in the 50s Saturday May 24th: Sunday May 25th:

12z Euro: 12z GFS: 12z Canadian: Both 12z GFS and Euro runs are hinting a cutoff low and blocking pattern just before Memorial Day weekend. Quite trainwrecky, for sure. 12z GFS: 12z Euro: This month really needs a Reset button.

000 SXUS71 KILN 070651 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 251 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2025 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.16 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY, TUESDAY, MAY 6, 2025. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY SITE RECORD OF 0.91 INCHES SET IN 1971. $$ Only in the middle of the 1st week of May, but already have 3" of rain for the month already. No way May's going to be drier than normal by the time the month is over. Keep the stretch of wetter-than-normal months coming over the next several months, especially with some of the near-biblical rains, and we can forget having a summer this year.

Wouldn't count on it. Models hinting another cutoff low for next week. 12z GFS: 12z Canadian: It gets worse on the 12z GFS run that it keeps us pretty much in Cutoff Land for a good portion of the month, especially about a week after next.

Better be just a blip 12z GFS regarding May 18th, highs stuck in the 40s:

Might as well

Don't be pushing for a repeat of this past weekend now, NWS ILN! From NWS ILN's recent Long Term Ensemble guidance seems to be in fairly good agreement showing an influx of very dry air from the N into the daytime Friday, even with the details regarding the digging S/W into the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS still somewhat uncertain. Should this feature dig to the SW a bit more into the ern OH Vly, some of the driest air may be shunted a bit more to the W of the local area into Saturday, but latest guidance still maintains a dry fcst locally during this period. This being said, the ensemble data points toward a cutoff low that develops further to the W closer to the ILN FA Friday into Saturday, which would likely mean daytime temps that may be quite a bit cooler than the blended fcst currently suggests. Certainly the trends portend that we may have another cutoff low to contend with immediately to our E into Saturday and the interaction between the digging S/W NE CONUS trof and the lumbering broad cutoff low in the S mid MS Rvr Vly will be watched closely for adjustments to the fcst. The exact evolution of this pattern into next weekend still has some uncertainties at these time ranges given the weak flow and interaction between various relatively weak systems. But for now, near to slightly below normal temperatures and drier conditions are favored mid to late week before a gradual warming trend evolves by late next weekend into early next week.

Mainly cool days for the upcoming week for sure Monday A chance of showers before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Friday Sunny, with a high near 70. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Euro says just barely. 12z GFS keeps an upper low pretty much near to sea while 12z Euro has an upper low centered on Pennsylvania

Not good if you're looking for sustained warmth in the foreseeable future

NAO, PNA, and AO all going negative by mid-month: MJO currently in Phase 8, but goes back to COD very soon

Yep, weekend's gonna suck for sure.

Cutoff low associated with the Omega Block this weekend into next week? Definitely. But back-to-back cutoff lows late next week? That's got to be an insult to injury. Time to start thinking about writing off the month already? IND: .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 The long term period will be characterized by a somewhat stagnant pattern featuring a couple of cutoff upper level low pressure centers, which will impact the area over the weekend into early next week, with the second following mid to late week. This will lead to seasonably cool and dreary conditions through the weekend into Monday, with near constant chances for showers and occasionally a few thunderstorms. As the first low departs, a break in rain chances is expected Monday night into Tuesday night before the threat for showers returns Wednesday onward. Differences in model handling of the blocky pattern and particularly the second low pressure system leads to lower confidence and thus lower PoPs later in the forecast period. Temperatures will moderate mid to late week as the mid to upper level cold pool associated with the first low departs, though as with precipitation chances, uncertainty is higher in this regard, as some guidance shows a connection to a longwave trough developing with the second low, which could allow another intrusion of cooler air into the region. Nonetheless, the story of the next week or so will be temperatures near to below normal and frequently damp and dreary conditions. ILN: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface wave will slowly exit to the east Saturday night, taking widespread showers with it. However, behind the wave, a cut-off upper level low will remain wobbling over the Ohio Valley Sunday through Tuesday. Cool air aloft associated with the cut-off low will bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers during the day along with below normal temperatures. The low will slowly shift off to the east into mid-week. Guidance is understandably uncertain with what follows in this blocky pattern. One potential solution is another cut-off low to replace the first (i.e., cool and damp). However, differences in placement of this second upper low could lead to different sensible weather, so will keep chance PoPs and near-normal temperatures until there is a little more agreement in the guidance.

12z Euro: 12z GFS:

12z Euro (HINT: Most of that falls through next week): 12z GFS:

Ben Noll considering the lows in next week's Omega Block as bowling balls https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1917927485087642085

Another nice month? April was a washout. Even with a garbage blocking pattern taking place this weekend into next week....