shaggy

models are in great agreement on future track. Wonder with such strong agreement and a 115knt typhoon forecast to affect Kadena if Josh is gonna chase?

Downeastnc and our parents will be at Bath on the river all next week. Me and my 2 yr old will join them beginning if the week and then when my wife gets done with work on Tuesday she comes and gets me and we go to kitty hawk through Friday. 96L is a huge fly in the ointment. Gfs is bullish and the rest meh on development. Regardless with a low off the coast rip currents will keep us out of the ocean for sure.

Bout to have a beast out there in the wpac and most models carry it to a landfall so should be an interesting forecast coming up for them.

Had a 530am flight the other morning and as the sun rose over the convection over the gulfstream this was my view at 40k feet

Gfs rainfall totals for the entire run are just brutal for you guys. Hope it's wrong.

Kid is addicted to his hotwheels. He is up over 75 cars and trucks already.

How fast they grow

They're lucky it wasn't a stronger tornado. Took a direct hit.

Pics of boats being grounded in washington

Great example of a wind tide going on right now. Go to the NWS rivers and lakes page and look at the gauges at little Washington and the obx. Major water level drops at washington and major rises on the sound side of the obx

They looked good 10 days ago for a big cool down first week or two of February and that changed and now we are pushing it out to second half of feb....experience tells me that when we start pushing out the big cold pattern change it's bad sign.

Us Pgv guys are getting the Raleigh screw job this go around. So 3 to 6 near Raleigh and now MHX comes out with this awesome disco for the coastal areas. Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of the Outer Banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections of Eastern NC, generally east of HWY 17. The heaviest snow will fall along the Pamlico Sound from Carteret County to Hatteras Island/mainland Hyde County. Strong dynamics, thanks to a robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over the NC coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere. Mesoscale dynamics/factors could produce locally heavier snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder.

I'm sitting in a 1 county wide WWA with WSW warnings either side of me. One side is the for the piedmonts bigger totals and the one east of me is for the coastal that gets going. I wish there was a way for this "deepening stronger cutoff" (per Raleigh NWS) to not die and lose the qpf so fast as it moves east.

I'm sitting between the two higher snowfall totals on the Rgem. There's 3-6 to my west and now 3-5 to my east as it pulls the coastal ever so closer. I had around 4.5 to 5 inches on Jan 3rd so its not life or death for my season I've already scored. Would be nice to see that low kick off 30 more miles west though and get me into those higher potential totals.

If current track holds true then la reunion will be in the path of a cat 3. Wonder how much rain they would get out of that?

So I was sitting here at work bored freezing my butt off and went to the NCDC to research the years since Irene in 2011. So here are the reported tornadoes and subsequent tropical system activity. 2012 tornadoes 12 landfalls none 2013 tornadoes 5 landfalls none 2014 tornadoes 31 landfalls Arthur 2015 tornadoes 8 landfall Ana 2016 tornadoes 12 landfall Mathew along SC coast 2017 19 landfalls none This now makes 6 out of 7 years with 30+ tornadoes with a landfall later in the year. So averaging out the years with landfalls and the average tornado count is 34.8 and without landfalls is at 10. So 6 years later and the data and unscientific results are holding true.

The snow here for me was average. Picked upwards of 4-5 inches but this cold stretch has been impressive. We have not been above freezing but for just a couple hours on wednesday before the snow. Almost all the ponds are frozen and we don't look to go above freezing till monday with lows projected at mid single digits the next 2 nights.

After the hi res models showed me at 12+ for so many runs i started to believe. Now I'll be lucky to see 3 inches in afraid. I'm about 5 miles southwest of pgv and will likely flirt with the sharp cutoff.

I felt real good yesterday for 4 to 8 but being 5 miles west of pgv I now have that feeling I've said so many times. The feeling of a good solid storm evaporating at the last minute. I can only sit back and watch what happens now. The whole time I hear how dominate the hi res models are and yet in the end they trended to the anemic totals the globals had ran for days on end.

I hope you guys get in on the game as long as its from precip expansion and not low shifting too much to the left. Us eastern guys got shafted in December and need some redemption.

usually I am sitting on the edge worrying if I am gonna get rain or snow and this time I am worrying if I am too far west. I hate winter storm threats.

I am not at all upset with this outcome right now. Euro had me with a foot of snow for the 8th and 9th event several days ahead of the storm. I got 40 and rain. I don't want to be in a bullseye this far out. Suppression is better than being on the rain snow line and it can only change for the better and if it doesn't who cares I wasn't expecting anything anyways.

Nobody is expecting catastrophic damage. The orientation of our river systems is perfect for funneling water during storms. Even here inland I have watched the Tar river flow BACKWARDS as storms approach as the surge starts to build in. If you go to the NHC inundation maps for eastern NC even for a cat 1 you will see certain areas that are susceptible to big surges based on wind. In May of 2005 a nor'easter put 4-6 foot of surge into Adams creek. The highest recorded gust was 79mph on cedar island so it wasn't some big storm. Its not just about wind speed. Its about wind direction and duration. A stalled cat 1 in the right spot with a big wind field would cause massive flooding in some locations across NC.

TS dennis stalled off hatteras for a few days and put more water in the pamlico river at Washington than any other storm. So even if it doesn't landfall the slow motion could still cause huge effects if it has a large enough wind field.

I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon.