shaggy

So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

My nephew is at coastal Carolina and wanted to ride it out. He is likely on his way to my house for the storm. Which may not be the smartest since we are also in the path just much further inland

Starting to catch on to the ukie, fv3,hmon tracks you think? No matter which track it looks like NCs gonna have what's likely to be its worst natural disaster ever.

Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out. If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records.

So do we think this will be a blend of the models and come in around Topsail or Jacksonville. Looking great on sat images and starting to speed up it looks like.

Seems they weaken it pretty quickly. My expectations of hurricane force winds have gone down quite a bit over in Greenville with the angle of landfall and rapid weakening.

I'd get the earlier flight. Models are pretty bullish and they aren't changing. Doesnt mean they cant or wont but you better be safe and get in early.

This is my point and click. Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%

Gfs back to a landfall and less of a stall. Moves it to around Washington,NC and then pulls it north into Virginia. Still a long storm but not as much rain deep inland. So we have a 5 day landfall consensus between myrtle beach and hatters which is both unnerving and remarkable. Plenty of time to change though once the full data gets in the modeling.

People need to remember that she should be a big cat 4 for a few days before landfall. So even if she weakens down to high end 3 at landfall she will still be carrying a big surge especially if she has a big wind field. Lookout down to landfall would see a tremendous surge. Neuse river and the pamlico will be affected as wel.

Wpc discussion sounds like they are gaining confidence in a landfall.

I just get the feeling this thing is just gonna plow wnw right into SC and never make a big enough turn as its modeled right now. If it landfalls south of Jacksonville moving wnw this will spare a large part of eastern NC but really increase the risk for central and western nc. Really need that GIV up and flying missions to get the data into the models.

Yeah hugo redux. If the euro holds it path and gfs its and they blend the 2 then sc/NC are in trouble.

I'm actually getting the feeling this one might just plow west right into SC and never make that turn. There is so e troughiness that could weaken the ridge but will it be enough?

94l sure is a surprise so maybe she will weaken that ridge.

models are in great agreement on future track. Wonder with such strong agreement and a 115knt typhoon forecast to affect Kadena if Josh is gonna chase?

Bout to have a beast out there in the wpac and most models carry it to a landfall so should be an interesting forecast coming up for them.

Us Pgv guys are getting the Raleigh screw job this go around. So 3 to 6 near Raleigh and now MHX comes out with this awesome disco for the coastal areas. Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of the Outer Banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections of Eastern NC, generally east of HWY 17. The heaviest snow will fall along the Pamlico Sound from Carteret County to Hatteras Island/mainland Hyde County. Strong dynamics, thanks to a robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over the NC coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere. Mesoscale dynamics/factors could produce locally heavier snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder.

I'm sitting in a 1 county wide WWA with WSW warnings either side of me. One side is the for the piedmonts bigger totals and the one east of me is for the coastal that gets going. I wish there was a way for this "deepening stronger cutoff" (per Raleigh NWS) to not die and lose the qpf so fast as it moves east.

I'm sitting between the two higher snowfall totals on the Rgem. There's 3-6 to my west and now 3-5 to my east as it pulls the coastal ever so closer. I had around 4.5 to 5 inches on Jan 3rd so its not life or death for my season I've already scored. Would be nice to see that low kick off 30 more miles west though and get me into those higher potential totals.

If current track holds true then la reunion will be in the path of a cat 3. Wonder how much rain they would get out of that?

So I was sitting here at work bored freezing my butt off and went to the NCDC to research the years since Irene in 2011. So here are the reported tornadoes and subsequent tropical system activity. 2012 tornadoes 12 landfalls none 2013 tornadoes 5 landfalls none 2014 tornadoes 31 landfalls Arthur 2015 tornadoes 8 landfall Ana 2016 tornadoes 12 landfall Mathew along SC coast 2017 19 landfalls none This now makes 6 out of 7 years with 30+ tornadoes with a landfall later in the year. So averaging out the years with landfalls and the average tornado count is 34.8 and without landfalls is at 10. So 6 years later and the data and unscientific results are holding true.

The snow here for me was average. Picked upwards of 4-5 inches but this cold stretch has been impressive. We have not been above freezing but for just a couple hours on wednesday before the snow. Almost all the ponds are frozen and we don't look to go above freezing till monday with lows projected at mid single digits the next 2 nights.

After the hi res models showed me at 12+ for so many runs i started to believe. Now I'll be lucky to see 3 inches in afraid. I'm about 5 miles southwest of pgv and will likely flirt with the sharp cutoff.

I felt real good yesterday for 4 to 8 but being 5 miles west of pgv I now have that feeling I've said so many times. The feeling of a good solid storm evaporating at the last minute. I can only sit back and watch what happens now. The whole time I hear how dominate the hi res models are and yet in the end they trended to the anemic totals the globals had ran for days on end.