The 4 Seasons

@HIPPYVALLEY Watches coming this pm region wide. 100%. OKX almost put them up this morning but they stopped at the PHI CWA. And based on how much they love the NBM im guessing numbers are going to pretty high. Considered hoisting a Winter Storm Watch regionwide with this update, though after collaboration with neighboring offices, decided to hold off with this package given the onset of the event is still around 72 hours out, and changes to the forecast this far out are likely. That said, confidence has only increased in an impactful winter storm to produce a significant snowfall to the region on Sunday, lingering into at least Sunday night.

It rained.

Light rain.

That ain't Narcan, that's a straight main line of pure medical grade fent.

Miss you Zeus

I'll be thrilled with anything over 6 tbh. With how it started and how its going, I'm very satisfied with both

Doesn't need to be a traditional coastal. Sometimes those can work against you if you have warmer air aloft raising the DGZ if the storm track starts coming too close. Also very high winds are not helpful and knock down snow and prevent it from stacking up nice. A lot of these crazy 20-30:1 storms are usually light wind events not blizzards. All you need is good lift inside the DGZ to produce high ratio stuff, doesnt have to be a coastal. Strong H7 FGEN and super tall DGZ and boom you got some large dendrites coming down. Conversely cold =/ high ratios, for example if a lot of the lift is occurring outside the dendritic growth zone.

They issue winter storm watches when a cold win blows down there

damn. cant remember the last time i saw the dgz all the way in the basement like that, that is crazy.

Going more than 15:1 is so dangerous. We've seen many fluff bombs like Jan 7 2022 and Feb 7 2021 produce 15-25:1 but you're just asking for it when you start a forecast with those kind of insane ratios as an average across the entire storm. But many of our positive busts come from underestimating ratios and we end up getting 20:1+ ...like Feb 11-12th, 2006. Light wind also helps, strong winds can cut back ratios a bit.

I agree it could certainly end up that way especially if it keeps ticking N a bit and its just a front end punch to slot, but right now there's also a lot of potential for much higher numbers - we're still 4 days out from 18Z ish. I don't think i've ever seen you not be conservative to very conservative for every storm we've had and ive been on here for over 10 years. That's your thing, sometimes it works out.

ha- its all good are you young? They do have a visual- its off to the sides, left and right or just below the forward facing camera

Theres different stuff floating around but its been up to 72 hours for a while. BOXs criteria says 24-48+. Its usually within 24-48, but theyll go up to 72 if needed and based on where they are now, id bet its tomorrow pm.

72 hours. And in this case they are gonna use that because its higher than normal confidence. Based on where the watches have expanded east and probs have gone up to 80% categorical in OKX. Tomorrow night. Almost guarantee theyll be out by tomorrow pm package.

That was a great positive bust over performer for N/NE MA. I was just looking at the forecast essex and they were going 6-10 in Essex i remember we had a map for most of SNE for 5-10 and Nrn Ma ended up with 12-19. Kinda funny that storm doesnt get referred to often as one of those big ones, but it was a big dog for some.

Thanks for this! You've been super helpful with stuff over the years i really appreciate it. 50-80% probs of 12"+ across SNE on the NBM lol

so nobody sees between 10-12? interesting... I thought i was looking at a Rorschach test for a second

lol, i was like 50/50 on it, thats why i asked, that wasn't rhetorical. But it didn't come off as a joke, so hard to tell.

Where are you? Dec 2020, Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 was major, depending on where you are of course.

suck on that tailpipe

you can't be serious

It's way too early for exact calls and snowfall maps. But we put out a first assessment for the public for a general threat of 8"+ region wide - similar to the first one you did with that last storm that had 6"+/<6". I think thats reasonable atm.

can always go up