CCHurricane

I'll be getting reports from the town of Barnstable on the Cape. I'm actually up in the city of Boston now so this will be a fun one to watch! I personally think the Cape will surprise on the upside (just like in 2005) with Boston getting fluff supported 20-28.

I was on the Cape for the blizzard of 2005. Watched the Boston stations the NIGHT of the storm as snow was falling and they were still calling for 8-16 with a changeover to rain. We ended up with 36 inches...Nothing is set in stone IMO and I truly believe the Cape is the hardest location in the United States for snowfall forecasts. This storm could be anywhere from 12-26 inches tonight and I truly believe its a 50/50 call.

This thing is going to be a bomb for Cape Cod and the Canal up through Plymouth County.

Euro rolling.

Even the WSI RPM model is showing a modest 16+ for the Cape. It's unforunate that Cape Cod is lost in the shuffle with the Boston Mets (see blizzard of 2005)...but it seems like they are taking the GFS temps (which everyone knows has a warm bias) and running with it.

Here's NAM Output for Hyannis down on the Cape. All precipiation falling as snow. Total QPF 2.75. SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 7P 25-JAN 1.6 -10.3 1011 51 1 537 529 MON 1A 26-JAN -2.2 -9.4 1017 66 19 0.00 539 526 MON 7A 26-JAN -2.6 -8.8 1019 76 65 0.00 541 526 MON 1P 26-JAN -0.3 -5.8 1018 83 87 0.00 543 529 MON 7P 26-JAN 0.9 -5.8 1014 91 93 0.09 544 533 TUE 1A 27-JAN 0.8 -4.6 1006 98 97 0.44 542 538 TUE 7A 27-JAN 0.1 -5.6 994 97 99 0.83 534 539 TUE 1P 27-JAN 0.9 -5.9 989 94 82 0.70 528 537 TUE 7P 27-JAN 0.0 -8.7 991 93 63 0.39 526 533 WED 1A 28-JAN -3.4 -8.9 999 91 99 0.20 526 527 WED 7A 28-JAN -6.4 -12.0 1007 88 91 0.09 531 525 WED 1P 28-JAN -3.9 -9.9 1012 86 86 0.01 537 527 WED 7P 28-JAN -1.5 -9.2 1017 77 55 0.00 540 526 THU 1A 29-JAN -3.8 -8.0 1020 74 4 0.00 541 525 THU 7A 29-JAN -5.9 -7.1 1023 83 8 0.00 545 527

This could be the Blizzard of 2005 all over again...aka, boston mets discounting snows on the Cape, only to scramble at the last minute and jack up accumulations, or just refuse to acknoledge the fact that we got 3 feet of snow (I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard, called for 8-16 with a changeover to rain, ended up with 36). Time and time again there's too much model hugging when it comes to rain/snow lines over the Cape with these historic storms (and I'm not just saying that b/c I live there as I'm in the city now). As the LP bombs out heavy banding makes it very hard for temps to actually climb above freezing and change precip (look at 850mb temps and you'll see exactly what im talking about). Canadian and NAM have Cape as Jackpot with 28-34. This one will be interesting...