chubbs

September has a good shot at breaking the GISS anomaly record of 1.37 set in Feb 2016. Sept 2015 was "only" 0.85 on GISS. Most of the nino warming was still to come at this point of the 2015/16 cycle.

A particularly large rise in OHC in 2022 per small chart in upper left. The global temp records we are seeing this year aren't surprising, given the nina-related warmth stored in the ocean the past couple of years.

A simple explanation of role of water vapor in climate change from a climate expert: "So these changes mean that where it is not raining, drought and wildfire risk increase, but where it is raining, it pours." https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-rising-water-vapour-in-the-atmosphere

Good discussion about CC impacts on northeast snow above. Here is my two cents. A couple of general comments first: 1) As mentioned above you have to be careful evaluating recent trends. Snowfall is highly variable year-to-year and decade-to-decade in the northeast. 2) Climate change is ongoing. If we want a centered 30-year average to get 2023 snowfall climatology we are going to have to wait till 2038. This is problematic because snowfall is becoming even more variable. Per 2018 paper linked below we shouldn't expect big climate impacts on northeast US storm tracks. In addition we aren't going to see significant negative climate impacts on big snowstorms, they may even become heavier; but, we will steadily lose lighter snow events as conditions that allow snow become more infrequent. In general this agrees with recent experience. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2018GL079820 Now for some data. Below are running 30-year average snow for I95 and a few inland sites. The chart is on a log scale so cities with heavier snow don't dominate and to highlight percentage changes. I would group the chart into two main baskets. There is a northern group with mixed trends, coastal generally doing better than inland in recent decades; and, there is a southern group that is in long-term decline. My interpretation is that the negative impact of loosing potential snow days overcomes other climate change impacts at the southern sites. If you are a snow lover, the data indicates that you don't want to get warmer than Richmond was 1960-1990. Unfortunately we will get to test this theory at additional sites this decade. We'll see if it holds up.

Yes, CFS anomalies holding near high for year past 5 days. Only brief periods in Feb 2016 and feb 2020 were higher than 2023 spikes. Late winter is typically when the highest anomalies occur. The late winter spikes this year are going to come off a much higher base.

Below is good link for US flood risk info. FEMA risk # need an update https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/30-great-tools-to-determine-your-flood-risk-in-the-u-s/

The steadily increasing trend in your model indicates you may be right about the current model forecast underestimating the mean. Not surprising that the model has erred low. We've never had a year separate from the others in summer like this one, so hard to forecast this year from past behavior. If the current separation vs existing records holds through the rest of the year, then your model will be low. We'll see.

Another way of looking at it. 2015 is the enso analog to this year but 2015 had somewhat higher oni. UAH averaged 0.14 in 2015. This year is averaging 0.31, but should end up near or above the 0.39 record; which mplies strong warming over the past 8 years.

UAH needs to average 0.55 for the rest of the year to break 2016's record. Doable considering higher values in the past 2 months, and the strengthening nino. Would expect uah to peak early in 2024. UAH temperatures are recovering to record levels much faster after the 2016 compared to the 1998 nino peak. Either warming is accelerating or UAH has changed or both.

An early look at August climate station data that feeds GISS and other analysis (uses a 1961 to 1990 baseline). Blue crosses are stations. A good portion US was relatively cool.

Another month, another tic higher. 2009+2015 peaked close to the oni peak in dec/jan.

Dr. Otto usually chooses her words carefully. Googled "Pyrocene" - the term was coined by fire expert Steven Pyne in 2015. Below is a link to his website which has info on his publications. https://www.stephenpyne.com/bio.htm Below is a good blog article on Canadian fires and climate change. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/canadian-wildfires-and-climate-change Finally believe that the CO2 emissions from forest fires are included in carbon cycle models but don't know the details. Would guess that uncertainty in future wildfire CO2 and CH4 emissions is large.

SST progression in 2015. If this year behaves similarly, would expect SST anomaly to peak near the end of the year. If so the Jan---->Dec SST anomaly increase this year would be roughly 2X 2015.

July SST 2023 minus 2022, this year's increase in global SST is mainly due to enso. Note that warming is particularly strong in the 1,2 region and extensive in the eastern Pacific over a broad latitude range from Chile to Mexico, particularly in the S Hemi. The tropical and subtropical E Pac has a large positive feedback to ocean warming due to reduced cloud cover and stability (see slide posted above). Timing of the SST rise this year also argues for enso being the heavy hitter in warming SST, that and the large forcing imbalance which built up under the long period of nina conditions.

Another Greenland blocking event forecast for this week. Could produce an unusually strong late-season melt event.

Yes, they do not appear to be consistent. I would go with the local expert Hamilton. Swain may be wrong or I could have misinterpreted what he means by wet-dry cycling. It could be that the rain shadow areas are getting less frequent rain but when it does rain the rain is heavier. Increased precipitation intensity even in areas that receive less rain is mentioned in the abstract of the first reference I provided.

I borrowed the term from Swain. Believe it merely refers to the cycling between wet and dry seasons. Per link below, climate change intensifies the water cycle. Wet seasons can become wetter and dry seasons dryer. https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c047p123.pdf Here's an article by a local meteorologist on climate change impacts on Hawaii's precipitation https://theconversation.com/hawaiis-climate-future-dry-regions-get-drier-with-global-warming-increasing-fire-risk-while-wet-areas-get-wetter-211379

I don't see evidence of any big temperature non-linearity. Temperatures are rising faster because man-made forcing has increased at a faster rate. The forcing increase is due to reduced sulfur emissions mainly while CO2 emissions remain elevated. There are also some natural effects that are lining up this decade for warming: the volcano, warming in E Pac, and per chart below a solar cycle which is stronger than the last. If we get CO2 emissions under control the rate of temperature increase will drop. With fossil fuels losing competitive advantage, holding under 2C is feasible, but we need to make climate change a higher priority.

2023 vs 2015, 2023 is steadily pulling away. A couple of causes come to mind: 1) the earth's energy imbalance is roughly twice as large this year almost 2 W/m2 vs roughly 1 W/m2 in 2015, 2) 2023 started from a nina state while 2015 was already a weak nino. The recent triple nina obscured much of the recent increase in forcing/energy imbalance.