chubbs

This chart, based on ERA5, provides a clearer day-by-day comparison of 2023 vs the previous record holders. Flip to nino occurred early enough in year to allow a record. We'll see if recent warming is maintained or there is a fall back to temps closer to 2016 and 2020. https://climate.copernicus.eu/tracking-breaches-150c-global-warming-threshold?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=socialmedia&utm_campaign=globalwarminglimit-june23

Per this chart, Honga Tonga had a net cooling effect but it is fading rapidly. The cooling effect was a bigger peturbation than marine SOx at its peak. https://github.com/ClimateIndicator/forcing-timeseries/tree/main/plots

Agree with this. GHG are the problem. The oceans and aerosols are holding temperatures in check, but you can't count on either for the long term. Need to be careful about over-interpreting month-to-month temperature swings. The marine sulfur rules had a very short-term impact. The aerosols disappeared in a week or two in early 2020. El nino is going to have a much larger impact on this years temperatures than marine sulfur. As you say though some of this years early warmth is probably due to other causes. In any case, temperature records in years that transitioned to el nino are not that unusual: 86, 97, 02, 09 and 14 all set records.

CFS re-analysis temps are toasty this month. Roughly 3-months after daily satellite SST spiked to record territory in March. Since March, daily SST have moved further into record territory. Will temperatures lag SST and stay elevated?

The Pacific subsurface today vs a month ago. The EPac has warmed further while Kelvin waves continue to track eastward in the central/west Pac moving more warm water east. As others have noted, while cooling somewhat the WPac is still warm. This is a double-edged sword. Could work against full development of nino forcing; but, at the same time there is plenty of warm water to be sent eastward by Kelvin waves if WWB continue.

I made an initial bet at Kalshi this week. Looks like a big enso swing this year and per chart below the satellite measured energy imbalance is at record levels.

Another WWB induced Kelvin wave moving east and building in the west/central Pacific subsurface over the past two weeks. Sign of ongoing transition to el nino.

Typical early nino shift in Pacific warm water volume with west decreasing and east increasing. Following triple nina, warm water values in the west Pacific have been at record values which would allow a strong/super nino. We''ll have to see if potential is realized.

IPCC scientists have recently updated the state of the climate system through 2022. Its turning out to be an interesting decade. Chart below shows human induced warming, which is calculated from observed temperatures; and man-made forcing estimates on a per decade basis. After a period of relative stability from roughly 1990 to 2015, man-made climate forcing and global temperatures are increasing at a more rapid rate. The recent forcing increase is mainly due to air pollution control in China and other developing countries, as global CO2 emissions are leveling off. Below is the closing para from the paper: "This is a critical decade: warming rates are at their highest historical level and 1.5 °C global warming might be expected to be reached or passed within the next 10 years. Yet this is also the decade that global greenhouse gas emissions could be expected to peak and begin to substantially decline. The indicators of global climate change presented here show that the Earth’s energy imbalance has increased to around 0.9 W m–2, averaged over the last 12 years. This means that there are large energy flows into the climate system and rates of human induced warming will remain high as greenhouse gas emissions remain high. Nevertheless, these warming rates do not need to be locked in as rapid emission decreases could halve warming rates over the next 20 years (McKenna et al. 2021). Table 1 shows that although global greenhouse gas emissions are at a long term high, they are beginning to stabilize, giving some hope that over time the indicators of global climate change presented here can track a real-world change in direction" https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2023-166/essd-2023-166.pdf

Will GISS break a record this year? Odds are increasing. This year trails the the top 2 years 2016+2020 for Jan-Apr, but both of those years cooled in the last 8 months of the year as el nino weakened. Recent years with large ONI increases Jan-->Dec: 2015, 2009 and 2006, all warmed in the last 8 months of the year vs, Jan-April. 2023 sits at 1.01 for Jan-Apr vs 1.02 GISS record; so back-end of the year warming like either 2015, 2009 or 2006 would produce a record. We'll see.

OK, I see your point. recent favoring of La Nina has had an impact on trends in this region. Per chart below I can go with roughly flat since 1979, which represents a cooling relative to the global mean. As to climate effects on enso. Don't think that has been resolved. A couple of recent papers linked below: 1) Recent favoring of La Nina could indicate a climate forcing that was not predicted by climate models https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011 2) Climate change could increase enso amplitude https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

ENSO region 3.4 has warmed along with the rest of the globe. As described in the enso blog linked below, NOAA uses a 30-year ONI baseline which is updated every 5-years. Note also that baselines are centered, so recent years don't have their final ONI values yet. 2023 wont be finalized until the 2006-2035 baseline is available. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/watching-el-niño-and-la-niña-noaa-adapts-global-warming

The sun has switched from a slight cooling to a slight warming factor in cycle 25.

A less sarcastic take.

Satellite daily global SST anomaly through April 28. The current SST spike is roughly as large as previous anomaly spikes for an entire nino. Looks unprecedented in terms of size and short duration.

I've been measuring temperatures locally for for 40 years, trust me its warming. Its warming faster at your house than the "actual data" you have posted in this thread. All the technically sound analyses of local data show strong warming. You are the only guy who thinks it was warmer in the 1940s than current in this area. If you think you have a better analysis than the experts publish your data in a technical forum - challenge the experts.

Don't try to speak for me, If analyzed properly. the Chester County COOP data fully supports consensus climate science. Living here for 40 years I can attest to the county's strong warming trend. Like I have said before. You are going to be the last person to detect local warming using observations.

Here is a plot of the decade temperatures from Chesco's table. Much more of a shotgun blast than the long-term climate sites. The coop stations have decade-to-decade changes which are much larger than the climate trend, which makes finding the climate signal difficult using raw station data. Note also that many coop stations had big temperature drops from the 1940s to the 1960s or 1970s as stations were modernized. One source of error before modernization is the coop use of mercury max/min thermometers which were subject to time of day bias. Stations with hourly reporting avoided this error. Fortunately there are many local stations and the coop stations were modernized at different times, so station updates are easily identified and corrected by comparing nearby stations using bias adjustment software. Of course, if you don't want to find the climate signal by all means use the raw coop data.

The Philadelphia airport is also in good agreement with the other major climate sites in the Mt Holly region. Isn't it strange that all these sites have the same heat island effect?

Its more than the bias adjustment. Coatesville raw data (3 separate stations) has exactly the same warming rate as the Philadelphia airport since 1970, roughly3.5F. You have obscured the warming by mixing in poor quality stations and changing the station mix from decade to decade. Including adding in your own house (EN), which you picked for its cold, snowy location.

Shows how misleading your analysis is. Per NOAA Chester County has warmed by roughly 3.5F since the 1890s. Note that the Philly obs moved to the airport in 1940, so there is less heat island impact at the end of the Philly record than the beginning.