RIC Airport

That's great to know, but I would be careful using the ICON and CMC for sniffing out east coast snowstorms. ICON hasn't been around long enough, and CMC has only won once in like the last 15-20 years over the GFS/Euro. I'm not trying to be a killjoy, just saying. I think they might be useful closer in though. 

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles.  But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later.

There is still potential for 2/5, but I became uninvested after yesterday's 12Z runs. Today's 12Z EPS only had 1-2 good hits, even fewer than yesterday and the day before, so the trend has not been great. 

Meanwhile, today's updated weeklies continue to sing the same tune for late February into March. That's really the only thing we can ask for at this juncture, with the hopes the pattern will deliver for our area. I do not see the need to cancel the winter. 

20 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Still  plenty of time but not trending well.  GFS Ensembles are  better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. 

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Waiting till after the  normals start rising isnt  ideal. 

Trend definitely isn’t good. 
 

56 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north.  That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look.  GEM showed a flush hit here.  

Certainly nothing like yesterday. 

The 12z euro was still close to something big, but it gets shredded so it's too far south and east. 

31 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. 

There is a lot of spread on the models, it's good that the farther north solutions are still showing up.

The 12Z GEFS had a mixed breed of solutions. A couple hits, some southern misses, and even quite a few rainy members. You can see why the 50th percentile is so empty because only a couple members are driving up the mean. 

Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. 

We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. 

The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. 

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Could be just me, but I am not able to see what you posted, @ldub23.

Meanwhile, after reviewing the overnight and morning models, there is still a storm signal for the February 4th to 6th timeframe, but it isn't as impressive as yesterday (i.e. not as many hits). But there is still plenty of time to monitor. Hopefully today is an improvement. 

GFS was south again with the 2/5 possible storm, but perhaps some snow showers on Saturday with the confluence low pressing south?

14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

This starts at 12z 2/2 and finishes at 12z 2/7. You can see the hits in there around 2/5. 

Charts, @Conway7305

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Exactly.  That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck.

 Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. 

@Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution.

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Still some Big hits on graphs.  Would love to see the animation output for e50

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout

6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Euro ensembles? 12z

Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? 
 

Definitely was an interested solution on the op. 

Not too many ensemble hits, but a couple were HUGE! ORF and ECG actually had more hits than RIC, possibly indicative of a more southern outcome, rather than snow being displaced north of us like last week.

2 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

0z EURO would  break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified.  Still snowing at end of the run.  6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe.  I’m sure 12z will be  different but great to see threats popping up!  

It actually look similar to that one ensemble member I posted the other day.

The 00z GFS had it hitting NC, and the 6z was suppressed to the south, but as you mentioned, some of the 6z ensembles were hits for us. We can expect to see wild swings from run to run with the pattern change. Hang tight, everyone!! 

22 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Man I hope you guys get this one.  I’d love a blizzard to happen for you.  You got this!

Thank you for thinking about us. 

Well, the Euro went all in last night. 

52 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

So freaking close

Might want to look at the surface temps. Also the ensembles are rainy east of the mountains. 

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs.  Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business.  I think!  Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!!

I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. 

I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape. 

41 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

 The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again  for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th)  The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5:  All checks:  Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow):

I love it! Really hope it pans out for us, there are quite a few good snowstorms that have hit us between the 10th and 20th of February. 

33 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

In a  normal winter this would  be a  coastal snowstorm

Explain?

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

We all know that's never happening at DCA. With how UHI-y that site is, we'd be lucky for it to get below zero. 

Just piggybacking off your records are made to be broken comment. 

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Records are made to be broken.

I hope I'm alive when DCA hits -16°F.