RIC Airport

Now this is more like it.  

27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Just happy  to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line.  I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. 

I agree, just have PTSD from PD II  because, verbatim, we are a rain changing to ZR, IP, then snow. I'm always nervous about that situation here because, about half the time, it doesn't get as cold as fast as we'd want, especially at the mid-levels. But, hopefully, this will trend better for us. Ideally, we'd get at least 6 inches, but something more would be even better. We haven't had a 6"+ snowstorm in almost 6 years, which is pretty long, even for us. 

Juicy system though. Somebody would get a lot of snow for sure.

13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD.  Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run.  Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much. 

We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change.

Quite a few hits even for next week on the EPS. Things that makes you go hmmmmmm.
Then they pick up again around the 19th-21st at the end of the run. 
 

7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Seems about right to me.. cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now…

Yup, although the 12Z GEFS showed potential next Monday or Tuesday, I am more interested later on. The dates are fluctuating because of timing differences from run to run, but we are generally talking about the 19th (PD) and later. As @ldub23stated, Richmond has a shot, I am not as confident about the chances for SE VA, NE NC as there are more misses than hits on the ensemble runs through the end of the period. 

12Z GFS was farther south than 6z, but was warmer and thus a rainstorm for all. 

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run.

So, looking at the rest of the 6z GEFS run, I start this loop at 00z Monday, 2/19, and it ends at 6z Thursday, 2/22. Notice a handful of hits, especially around the 21st to the 22nd. But you can also see some rainy members and shut outs.

The map below is the entire 6z GEFS run. Notice how much more snow is on some of the members because of the hits later in the period. 

21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 00z Euro picks up on the 00z GFS idea as well. 

6z GFS shifted back north. You can see when looking at the 500mb vorticity maps that the vortex over Canada is farther north over Hudson Bay than the 00z run, and there are some slight timing differences with the northern and southern stream energy before they phase compared to the 00z run. This is still 6-7 days out, so the details will probably change. 

FWIW, the 6z ensembles, only 2 or 3 members seem to like the snow idea, even for NoVa/DMV. The 1st map shows a loop starting 00z Saturday 2/10 to 00z Friday 2/16, and notice how only p10, p16, and p19 are the closest to what the 00z GFS showed. 

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

RIC  has a shot but the  southern end  of  snow  never  verifies, nothing  here.

The 00z Euro picks up on the 00z GFS idea as well. 

6z GFS shifted back north. You can see when looking at the 500mb vorticity maps that the vortex over Canada is farther north over Hudson Bay than the 00z run, and there are some slight timing differences with the northern and southern stream energy before they try to phase compared to the 00z run. This is still 6-7 days out, so the details will probably change. 

Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run.

Doesn’t seem to have much ensemble support. But like you said, @Conway7305there is plenty of time. Just not wanting us to be on the fringes like a few weeks ago. 
 

27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

0z  GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day.  Northern VA has more.  Still plenty of time 

I dont like it, we are on the fringes. 

I just peaked at the Euro weeklies, and everything looks favorable at h5 through March 22nd. These fluctuate daily, but the snow mean map had its highest numbers in about a week.

Maybe we can get something record breaking like Nova Scotia, @Stormpc.

15 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices.

OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? 

13 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Lets hope  so

I peaked at the 18z GEFS; this was the best run all day. Had a few good hits between the 18th and 20th. Just needs some consistency as its earlier runs and even the 00z and 12z EPS were unremarkable. 

11 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices.

OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? 

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Lets hope  so

I was not impressed with today's runs, but that doesn't mean things won't change come tomorrow or later this week. We need to wait until the pattern evolves. I think it's still early. And trust me, I am impatient. I truly hope we can score in our area, and we should if history is a clue. 

10 hours ago, JB Fins said:

Well, I was 8 but do remember this storm...

Pic 1 is the old Richmond/Petersburg Turnpike Toll Plaza.  When commuting to VCU I had toll tickets that you could buy from the bank to go through here.  I would get off at Belvedere.  Thankfully, this toll booth went the way of the dodo.

Pic 2 is Broad Street near MCV (now VCU Medical Center) looking down before that road heads up to Church Hill.

Pic 3 is Broad and Pic 4 appears to be East Grace Street.

Pic 5 is Broad looking at the MCV Main Hospital Building

Pic 6 is also Broad Street between Belvedere and 6th Street

Pic 7 is the toughest for me to identify but figure it's most likely Broad looking west, just from down the hill near Shockoe Valley but could easily be Grace or Main, scratch that, gotta be Broad with the street lights, Main never had them like that and don't think Grace did.

I found these in the RTD archives. They should have listed the location in the last photo, but it's probably the same area. I wasn't born until 6/1981, but I could recognize where these were taken. All the people, the buses, and the snow plows show how we were more accustomed to getting snow than we are today. 

The below was taken downtown after the January 2016 storm, notice no people, no cars/busses, no plows. 

Interestingly, there were already 3 to 4 inches of snow on the ground from a 6.4 inch snowstorm that hit back on 2/7/1979. Look at how deep the snow depth got on 2/19/1979. That was also a frigid month. Richmond hit -8°F a few days after that storm. It's too bad we haven't seen many months with this type of cold/snow combo since. February 2010 featured a 16-day stretch with snow on the ground, the longest stretch January 1996. 

18Z GFS has a hybrid situation where snow turns to ice for President's Day. Then, somehow, as the coastal gets going, we lose the cold at the surface, and any ice turns to rain for everyone. 

This is at the end of the run, but bottom line there IS STILL a storm around that time. 

Still a great look at H5, but only a few minor hits on the EPS snow maps from about the 14th to the 19th. 

One thing that I am starting to get concerned about is the lack of true arctic air I'm seeing at the end of these ensemble runs, but perhaps with the right timing it can get "cold enough" if we get some good dynamics and a good storm track. 

55 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

A few big hits on the 12Z GEFS on the 18th-19th.

People are floating around PD III because we had a KU on Presidents Day in 1979 and again in 2003. RIC recorded 10.9" from PD I, one of the coldest snowstorms in the period of record, rivaling the February 1899 Blizzard. Temperatures in Richmond during that snowstorm were only around 10°F. I would've loved to have been alive to experience it. 

Here are some photos I found of it. Does anyone recognize these areas?

Unfortunately, the 2003 storm (PD II) did not meet expectations for areas south of Fredericksburg, but it was still a very impactful event. I had the AKQ graphic saved for many years until an old hard drive crashed. The graphic had 14.2" for RIC. However, there was only about 3-5" across the RIC area because even though the surface temperatures were only around 20°F during the height of the event, precip was mainly in the form of IP. The storm came in 3 pieces over several days. It started as rain, then it was forecasted to turn to ZR/IP, and then +SN once the coastal got going. Instead, we got the IP/ZR as the colder air filtered in, then got dry slotted. Then, the coastal cranked too far north of us to reap the benefits, something that thankfully didn't happen in the 2016 storm. Perhaps, if and when there is a PD III, it'll be on par with PD I. 

A few big hits on the 12Z GEFS on the 18th-19th.

The 00z GFS brought back a storm. This time, it's on 2/18. I'm sure there will continue to be fluctuations for at least the next 7 -10 days as we approach the next favorable "window" for snow. 

Posting the maps to keep hope alive, recognizing that 6z could take it away.

Nothing notable, in terms of snowstorms at least, on the 12z EPS either. 

At the end of the run, we still have nice -NAO, -AO, and -EPO, a western ridge, and a split flow. There is also a nice vortex over SE Canada and lower highs in the 50/50 region, so it's hard to see why this "look" won't translate to a storm at some point, especially when all the teleconnections are where we want them to be.

6z and 12z GFS were indeed less enjoyable than the 00z run. 6z GEFS had a handful of hits, and 12z GEFS even fewer. Everything at H5 still looks good toward the end, so hopefully, this was just a fluke run, and the EPS offers more hope. 

The 00z GFS has a storm for Valentine's Day. Plenty of time to watch, just happy to see storms popping up in the LR. 

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

That's another very tight gradient. I'm sure I was grieving that storm, missing it to my south. I still think we're going to have another good shot or two. Especially up where you are. Things are looking pretty good I must say. Possible suppressed pattern. Not bad for me. Not great for further north. Pretty rough to go from 7-8 inches in Williamsburg and barely an inch around richmond. That's tight.

Yeah, and it happens more often than you'd think. Snowstorms like 1/4/2018, 1/29/2014, 12/26/2010, 12/26/2004, and 2/6/1980 where occasions where someone in Hampton Roads got 10-15"+, while RIC only got T-3".

Sometimes, we share, such as 1/7/2017, 2/26/2015, 1/3/2002 and 2/18/1989, where RIC gets 5-8", but Hampton Roads is in the bullseye.

1 hour ago, mikeeng92 said:

1/23/16, from what I remember we got pretty lucky in Richmond. Day 1 was a bust with plenty of sleet and mixing. Then on day 2 the wraparound over performed and put on an amazing show. 

Yeah, the coastal formed and stalled long enough, and the death band formed and stayed right along I-95. Part 1 was just light to moderate snow with the overrunning before we had precip-type issues. RIC still picked up 6.1" just from that, but it was far less than we were hoping for at the time, and having to wait on the low to crank up as the models indicated, was aggravating and almost suicidal, but it worked out. I was bracing for a repeat of 12/18/2009 or 2/16/2003, where we only got the initial and didn't get anything from the coastal like the models showed. 

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Yes you guys were killing it with the wrap around while places just east of DC and Baltimore could never get back in to the snow band. They got the initial thump then it hung out just to the west and snaked down through Richmond and Southern VA. I was lucky enough to be West enough to get back into that 2nd act of the storm which was awesome. Wind blown powder. Great day that was.

RIC missed reaching blizzard criteria because the one hour in the middle gusted to 32mph, not 35mph. We needed 3 consecutive hours of 35mph+.

*Year is wrong on the graphic.

3 hours ago, JFLETCHER said:

Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient.

I agree. I wish we could return to the old days when the Miller A's happened regularly. Another good scenario is a southern slider (some call it Miller C), like 12/9/2018, 2/16/2015, or 1/30/2010, where there is one moisture slug and no mixing issues. 

OTTOMH, the last Miller A's that worked out were 2/12/2014 and 3/1/2009. We are getting more hybrids now, like 1/23/2016. I also am okay with those that form off the SC/GA coast and move north, like 1/25/2000 or 2/16/1996.