RIC Airport

35 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Everyone north of the yellow should be all snow. 

 

Unfortunately, the yellow is advancing northward, so sleet will likely start mixing back in.

12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It’s been this way for a long time, but we can see how the short term models that had the snow missing to the north were absolutely wrong even 6z this morning. Nothing is perfect but still the euro and the GFS most reliable. 

I was just about to mention that the GFS certainly had a better handle on this band, while others had it farther north, and most of the Richmond area was getting fringed.

The GFS had RIC a bit too cold, though, and had RIC down to 27°F at 7am when it was only 33°F at the time. Every event is different. In the big storms, often, the short-range models can pick up on warm air aloft that the bigger models don't pick up as well. The February 14-18, 2003 (PD II) storm comes to mind.

Everyone north of the yellow should be all snow. 
 

55 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

It looks nice, but I remain skeptical. The 00Z Euro was better last night, but a lot needs to happen for this to become a meaningful event in our region. But we are still several days away, and things can change. The timing of this is when the pattern starts to relax, which is when the more significant storms tend to happen so at least there is that.

We also need a deeper trough and it goes negative so the storm gets pulled in enough. Maybe the 12Z Euro, which is running now, will offer increased support south of 40N. 

 

FWIW, this is what the 12z Euro had for Friday. But, we can enjoy today before FWIW, this is what the 12z Euro had for Friday. But we can enjoy today before getting reeled in on another event that has its challenges.

Radar is still looking decent, hopefully most people can get a dusting if the rates cool the temperatures enough. 
 

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

 

Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance.

It looks nice, but I remain skeptical. The 00Z Euro was better last night, but a lot needs to happen for this to become a meaningful event in our region. But we are still several days away, and things can change. The timing of this is when the pattern starts to relax, which is when the more significant storms tend to happen so at least there is that.

Also, I was not overly impressed with the ensembles, although the signal is still there.

We also need a deeper trough and it goes negative so the storm gets pulled in enough. Maybe the 12Z Euro, which is running now, will offer increased support south of 40N. 

29 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Ouch 

It actually looks like it's happening sooner. The precip just isn't heavy enough to cool the column sufficiently. KRIC started reporting rain at the onset but did go over to sleet.

1 hour ago, Topher said:

 Dogs first snow since 2021, was in Charleston for a bit, now husband is stationed here for another couple years. 

Awesome! Glad they got to see some, even if it was brief. Hopefully there is more before this winter is over. 

Only a tiny window left for any frozen at RIC. Per the sounding chart from the most recent HRRR, the surface temp never gets below freezing. By 2pm, it already has dewpoint and wet bulb above freezing so any precip at that point would be rain. 

15 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us

I just tried looking around Emporia, and the roads look wet, but the camera is too grainy to know that it's rain, snow....or even sleet. That is probably what the yellow colors are picking up that way. 

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=36.7029,-77.5497&camId=430919&fbclid=IwAR1ReRnrZczKGm12u22Y7P1qTxNGyC7b4wQxK8UGrzwAeGBaoHGiip7FqH8

Also, the AWOS appears to be down, lol. 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kemv

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha
 

Definitely activity to the south of Richmond. It has that SW to NE orientation, but the band looked to be lifting north. So, I imagine precip should begin in the next couple of hours. Dew points are in the low-mid teens, and temps are in the mid-30s, but this band looks heavy enough to wet bulb us to freezing or below, hopefully. As long as the entire column is below freezing.

And yes, better to see the band forming south of us than right over,@wasnow215.

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.  

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds.  Hopefully we can get a shift back south again.  

29 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I compare rain events and NAM consistently is bad vs GFS. 

The 00z GFS was also a step back from earlier runs, but it didnt completely shut out RIC. Still on that southern fringe, though, which is never a good place to be. 

The 00z short term models have not been friendly. The snow band has shifted primarily north of Richmond. 

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Here is the latest disco and the maps from Wakefield. I bolded part of the disco, highlighting what many of us mentioned earlier.

Total snowfall amts have now increased for this event, with 1-3 inches possible across the NNW third of the FA with 0.5-1.0 inch across the central third, and little to no accumulation across the SE third. These totals may change as we get closer to the event given uncertainties still with the evolution of the moisture/lift, timing and placement. But, based on this latest fcst, will likely be issuing Winter Weather Advisories this evening for at least nrn/NW counties for the accumulating snow possible.

AKQ issued an advisory and also ticked up totals a bit. 

Here is the latest disco and the maps from Wakefield. I bolded part of the disco, highlighting what many of us mentioned earlier.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 410 PM EST Sunday...

Late this aftn, an arctic cold front was pushing through the nrn
third of the area, with just sctd SC and AC associated with the
front. Otherwise, the sky was sunny or mostly sunny across the
region with temps ranging from the mid 40s to the upper 50s. Winds
were still gusty in advance of and behind the front with gusts
to 30-35 mph.

Winds become light tonight, as weak high pressure moves in with
lows in the mid 20s N, to the lower to mid 30s SE under increasing
and lowering clouds. Although high pressure begins to build in,
it remains centered over the central CONUS with an elongated,
zonal shortwave stretching from TX into VA. Hi-res CAMs now show
enough forcing and moisture aloft due to this feature for at
least some virga and perhaps isolated to sctd light snow showers
forming late tonight across the NW half of the FA. However, the
airmass near the sfc will start off very dry with dew points
potentially in the single digits this evening. As such, it may
take awhile for moisture aloft to saturate the profile enough
for snow to make it to the ground. But, do now have 15-35% PoPs
for nrn/WNW portions of the region from 6-12z Mon with a light
dusting possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 PM EST Sunday...

Elongated shortwave energy and increasing moisture and lift will
expand over the nrn two thirds of the area Mon into Mon evening.
PoPs quickly increase to 40-60% in these areas, as a band of
snow develops later Mon morning into early Mon aftn, then shifts
NNW later Mon aftn into Mon night. Most of the pcpn should fall
as snow, although rain may mix in or become the dominant pcpn type
across the SE portion of the FA during the aftn and evening when
temps rise. Speaking of temps, temps will be cold with highs
only in the lower to mid 30s NNW, to the upper 30s to mid 40s
SSE. It is possible that the NW half of the FA doesn`t make it
above freezing if snow continues through the day due to dynamic
cooling.

A weak surface low forms off the SE coast late Mon night, before
moving NE off the Mid Atlc coast and twd the nrn Atlc Tue
morning into Tue night. While this low is expected to remain
weak, it may add enough moisture for PoPs to increase to 50-70%
across ENE portions of the FA Tue morning into early Tue aftn.
However, temps warm above freezing on Tue with a transition to
rain/snow across the NNW half of the FA and mainly rain everywhere
else. Pcpn will move offshore or end Tue evening/Tue night, with
gradual clearing from NW to SE by Wed morning.

Total snowfall amts have now increased for this event, with 1-3
inches possible across the NNW third of the FA with 0.5-1.0 inch
across the central third, and little to no accumulation across
the SE third. These totals may change as we get closer to the
event given uncertainties still with the evolution of the
moisture/lift, timing and placement. But, based on this latest
fcst, will likely be issuing Winter Weather Advisories this
evening for at least nrn/NW counties for the accumulating snow
possible.

Highs Tue in the upper 30s NNW, to the mid 40s to lower 50s SE.
Very cold air moves in behind the low Tue night with lows in
the mid to upper teens across much of the area, and in the lower
to mid 20s SE and along the coast. This will allow for wind chills
in the single digits across the N and W areas, and 10-15F across
the SE late Tue night/Wed morning. Sunny or mostly sunny and
cold on Wed, as high pressure builds into the region. Highs
only in the mid to upper 30s.

For@ldub23 and other Hampton Roads folks.

16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Southeast of the city a few degrees colder too. Just one model but it keeps trending better.

I agree that we should keep that in mind. There are different scenarios on the table and it'll be interesting to see which model does the best. 

38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning.

@wasnow215I should caveat by saying, that does not mean RIC can't rise above freezing in an intrahour reading, especially tomorrow afternoon around the time of the 20Z (3pm) temp map below. 

19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Look- 12z GFS 2m temps at 7 pm

17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

18z 2m temps 7pm. 

18Z for that hour was a degree colder. 31°F vs 32°F.

21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Just gotta get these temps a couple degrees colder than forecasted at the surface. GFS looked colder to me at 18z vs 12z. You see that @RIC Airport?

The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning.

18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z GFS as it's coming in, is similar to 12Z, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @eaglesin2011, @SoCoWx

17 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff

18Z GFS as it's coming in, is similar to 12Z, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @eaglesin2011, @SoCoWx

@wasnow215, The 18Z 3K NAM is similar to the 18z HRRR. Both models have a very early arrival of precip between 4am and 5am, with the heavier rates of snow arriving between 8am and 10am and lasting until about 3 or 4pm. It's around this time that precip tapers off, and surface temps remain above freezing while we are dry-slotted. As it pulls away, there could be additional rain overnight and early Tuesday from the coastal low. 

3K NAM has RIC below freezing until about 11am, so ratios could drop, and snow may not accumulate as well, even though precip rates are higher into the mid afternoon. 

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out?

I am concerned about surface temperatures and worried that the snow band could position farther north and Richmond is fringed without meaningful amounts. Meaningful being like 1”+. The goal is getting 1” at the airport to end the snowless streak.

The 18Z HRRR has precip arriving tomorrow morning with surface temps around 31-32°F as the snow begins. The radar simulation shows some snow trying to start during the wee hours of the morning, but it’s probably just virga (maybe). Either way, HRRR has the bulk of the snow entering Richmond between 8am and 9am. Rates pick up, but it has snow changing to rain between 4pm and 5pm as temperatures rise to about 35-36 °F. The good news is that the bulk of the precip is over by this time. It just may mean that any snow that falls could be melted by afternoon. Then we get dry slotted and may get additional rain late Monday night into Tuesday as the coastal low gets going and starts to pull away 

Let’s hope the 12Z GFS is correct, but my gut feeling is that the 12Z run was too aggressive with snow.

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. 

@Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week.