ers-wxman1

12” totals will be over the higher terrain for this event. CMC likely overdone, even into the far NW suburbs. Model doesn’t account for temps effectively. It could be 36F and snow with no accumulation efficiency, but the model still adds up the total snow in general ratio. Essential to analyze the pattern unfolding and projected vs the dump of snow in the more amplified solutions. What in this pattern would actually drive double digit accumulations? You’ll be hard pressed to find the features.

The warmer, less amplified solutions are likely trending toward the proper setup for this pattern. Not to say the area won’t see a slug of moisture, likely will, but BL won’t be supportive even in the immediate suburbs.

This is not the pattern setup you want for significant snowfall in the MA. 500mb pattern is progressive, lack of ridging over the west and weak high to the north retreats with airmass not overly cold. “ Cold airmass” in place will not be cold enough for most areas east of the mountains. Need upper energy to be deepening to our south, GFS coming more into reality now with the progressive weaker system.

All depends what you are interested in. Sagrada Familia if you go to Barcelona.

Digital snow wars have begun. Move em to banter.

San Sebastián is amazing. Stay near the beach.

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while.

It’s everything nowadays.

March is the change of seasons, change of the jet stream, clashing air masses. Almost always get something of interest in March. Our issue is cold air.

These guys are an embarrassment to all meteorologists out there. They give all the rest of us a bad look. Trying to hit a home run to drive publicity. I end up putting out fires over bad information often, and it is difficult to walk back once it’s out there.

Honestly I just wrapped up 3.5 months of Florida weather support for Ian and Nicole, both on-site and remote support. I’ve seen enough carnage for a while and if the R & R comes in the form of a quiet winter I’m not going to balk… lol. I used to go into F5 aggravation over lack of snow but putting things into perspective after a few significant life events and working the Florida incident have honed things in for me.

Impressive stats! We had those incredible seasons… 09/10, 13/14, 15/16 and a couple in between years after, now the drought. Usually see an 18”+ event in the area every 5 years or so but now 7 years and counting. Not just snow, we haven’t had a meaningful tropical system since Irene in 11 and Sandy in 12, derecho in 12. Void of exciting weather for more than 10 years. At some point whether it’s winter, severe, or tropical we will have a big event, pattern won’t be like this forever.

Who is doing the hype? Lol nothing to hype about.

It is pretty crazy to have such a drought all the way north into New England like this. Even upslope events have been sparse.

That’s about the amount of snow we’ll see here for the next 10 years + lol.

It is not looking good at all.

You do realize this is snow right? Frozen crystals that fall from the sky. A life significance factor of 0.001 out of 10, and most of the depression is over digital snow. The Mid Atlantic region is in a prolonged snow drought. There is nothing in place now or in the near future to shift this pattern. If you want to find meaningful snow head to the west coast, Rockies or northern Plains. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a complete shutout for our region this season. Even snowshoe is paltry. Skiing is some of the worst I’ve seen in years. It’s not just us, much of the MA to New England is hurting. But seriously, find joy in other areas.

Ashburn Village: 39F. Sleet and rain.

Digital snow and fantasy ice does crazy things to people.

This was our best look all year within 48 hours. Warm nose on the 00z sounding last night was the shot in the arm plus the true arctic air just hasn’t been able to settle here for very long. Screaming southerly flow aloft was red flag for warm nose and dry slot.

NAM was spot on, back edge rapidly approaching NOVA. Can’t buy an event this year.

Sleetamaggedon in Ashburn. 27F

I think there is something to it. Strong jet coming up from the southern states. Given the model has a 90kt jet I see why it’s fast, but unfortunately so will the changeover be.

I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others.

I say trend is your friend. Trends weaker, drier over time.