ers-wxman1

Icon solution pumps in too much warm air off the Atlantic when the best stuff gets going from the coastal.

We sure need some kind of help.

The voice of reason has arrived. Good to see you on here! MAF had more SN than 3 years at IAD

To each his own.

I’m not in it for that! If I want a 6-10 run I’ll go skiing! I’m in it for the big events, it’s what I work for in this field.

That is the problem with getting hopes up on a few operational runs. It’s day 5/6 and models are only simulating what could happen with pieces of energy that may not even be over the CONUS yet. Any one of these pieces initializes off it can make things very uncertain.

This is not going to get it done unfortunately. Energy does not phase and the wave hitting the coast is a baggy mess.

500 low is more baggy, elongated this run. Needs to be deepening and cutoff swinging through south of our area.

GFS not going to get the job done. Upper energy looks baggy and transfer too late to the coastal. We get waa front end and that is all.

There are subtle differences but same reasoning.

The 500mb pattern depicted on the ENS is close to something big but not quite there yet. The best look the Mid Atlantic has had in two years, but ideally we need the western ridge more amplified and further west with the 500 low deepening and closed as it passes south of us and off the coast. Tilt going more negative and a phase to cutoff and keep the CCB going. It’s close, but not quite there yet. Fortunately we have cold high pressure over southern Canada vs that upper low which suppressed the Thursday system. Given trends this year, if we continue to see the ECMWF holding the pattern into 72 hours from onset with the ukmet and icon following along we will be in a favorable trend. These models have been consistent in showing the suppression patterns, more conservative. Coastal transfer time and deepening is crucial with Miller B type systems. If the Midwest low is too strong the transfer gets delayed and not favorable per GFS. Hoping for a win for this forum. But, let’s also keep in mind that the pieces to the puzzle are all being simulated at various points...some outside the U.S. so swings and uncertainty will be factors this far out. I think by Thursday there should be much better consistency and a better picture of where we are headed with this. Just my two cents. ERS

Rain and sleet in Ashburn.

Unfortunately in this case the upper level pattern is trending unfavorably for our latitude. The 500 ridge out west is setting up too far east over the Plains where ideally it should be over the western states. Upper level low over southern Canada with the high nosing leads to a more progressive and southern system. The 500 energy comes at us more west to east vs a larger cutoff feature given the pattern. Unless we see changes to these features, the southern/progressive/slider type of a system would continue.