showmethesnow

Like seeing that setup being thrown up in the longer ranges though to be picky I would like to see it a little farther SW. Was also noticing that though we are seeing a fairly strong pv in the strat (10 mb) centered over the pole it is taking a noticeable slant top down through 500 mb to the surface towards western Alaska/Aleutians. Nice to see and will help to mitigate the strengthening of the pv.

Been looking over the PAC the last week or so. Tending to favor a warm neutral to a borderline weak nino at this time. Now whether we see a Modoki style setup with the SSTs is still up in the air at this time though I do lean in that direction somewhat. Think that will become much clearer in the next few weeks. Wild card may be the IOD and its interaction with ENSO and I don't know nearly enough about the interplay. Want to look at some analogs between those two in the coming days to get a better feel.

Not really sure the 3 years you threw up (04-05, 14-15, 18-19) are a good match. Just looking at the 3 month mean (dec-feb) they differ quite a bite. If you look in the key areas, the domains (NAO, AO, PNA, etc..) we are seeing some extreme differences in values. And these differences are even more notable when you compare month to month. So I am not so sure what value blending the 3 years together really has especially when it is such a small sample size. While I agree focusing on the Pacific is key as in most years it is the main driver, I am not so sure that just the general overall SST look through the whole basin is where I would begin or even base my whole outlook on. There is a good reason that people focus first and foremost on the ENSO domain. Now while the ONI values are somewhat similar between these years, notice the SST distribution along the equator through the ENSO region and how they differ. With these differing looks we are seeing different forcings that are affecting the Walker Cell strength and location within the Pacific (see modoki nino as an example). This Walker cell setup is probably the key thing that should be focused on. So if you want to focus on SST distribution I would probably start there and then work out to the secondary areas (warm blob, IOD, etc...) of importance and then use the general overall SST's as a fine tuning. Now considering that we are discussing the winter weather for the Atlantic I am not so sure I would also totally ignore the other secondary drivers downstream. Though not often, we do see on a occasion where they do trump the PAC (such as a strong -NAO). Even when they don't override the PAC they do add nuances to the pattern through our region that can make or break us as most years we are living on the edge.

Good to know. I'll be your taste tester. 6 bottles should be enough from each of you to get an accurate read on your product. I'll PM my address to you both.

BWI: 11/16 DCA: 11/26 IAD: 11/16 RIC: 11/26 Tiebreaker: 8”

Using that criteria for previous seasons you could probably redefine 1/2 to 2/3 of our good/great seasons as bad ones.

Is this your equivalent of training camp/preseason games in getting ready for this coming winter?

I hear rock/gravel lawns are easy to maintain.

Can picture you as a D & D guy... but Pokemon?

Just starting to see pumpkins now? Did you plant late or is this where your handy tip comes into play?

They just don't make sun flowers like they used too. Back in my day sun flower plants were 5+ feet tall with heads a foot across.

The problem with not tilling is that the soil gets compacted over time which hinders good root development on your plants. It also will hinder rainfall penetration into the soil where more of it will run off then in a looser soil. Also the more compacted soil will tend not to retain as much moisture. During the hotter portions of the summer you really want that extra moisture. One option if you don't want to till is to dig a hole and turnover the soil where your plants will actually be. This is what i normally do because unfortunately tilling is not an option at this time due to space constraints. Normally will mix fertilizer and prime top soil in at the same time as well. Typically you want the hole almost as wide as the plant will be above the surface as quite often the root system will match its expanse.

Couple things you can do here to help keep weeds down. First off, you really need to keep on top of the weeds throughout the summer. Never let them grow long enough where they flower otherwise they are just going to drop seeds for the coming year. You also want to throw the weeds in the trash and not just throw the pulled weeds back onto the ground in the garden. Just doing this and nothing else and you should see a noticeable reduction year over year. Second, at the end of the summer clear the garden but don't roto-tiller yet. Put down black tarp or plastic for several weeks as to where hopefully the sun will create enough heat on the surface of the soil to kill any seeds that have been deposited over the summer. If you roto-tiller before hand all you do is push these seeds deeper into the soil where not enough heat can be generated. Now if you are dealing with an invasive weed that spreads (Such as I have been dealing with a Morning Glory ivy ever since we bought the house) you need to actually spray that with a weed killer instead of pulling it. Spraying it will help kill the root system from which more plants will spring up even after you pull the original weed. I have used this method the last 3 years and it has just about been eradicated after years of it taking over a decent portion of the garden. One benefit to rotoing in the leafs in the fall is that they will compost quicker in the soil then on the surface. They will also tend to help keep the soil from packing as much over the winter as the leaves will create air pockets as they decompose.

Beaver dam,that brings back memories. Used to go swimming there as a teenager.

That sucks. Wondering myself what I will have when I get back from vacation next sun/mon. Hopefully it's just a bunch of weeds. That's the only drawback to a summer vacation, wondering if your garden survived without your pampering.

Had the same problem. But not only did I see growth under the feeder we were also seeing plants shooting up 10-15 feet away as the squirrels were stealing the seeds and taking them elsewhere to eat. The other problem with the feeder was the fact that my dogs considered their own personal buffet with the animals it attracted. Finally took it down after a year's trial.

Having our first tomato tonight for dinner with BLT's.

We have a senior community a couple of blocks away so often times I will drop some produce off there. Might look into the local food bank this year as well. Of course neighbors and co-workers get their share as well. Splitting at the forks? First I have ever heard of that. If the tomatoes are struggling you might want to try some calcium nitrate on them. Of course you probably already know that.

Best time of the year when the garden first starts producing. After a month or so though it becomes, 'Who can I foist this stuff off to so it doesn't go to waste'' as you get burned out eating veggies every day. Probably have some cucumbers (3 plants) to harvest in the next 7-10 days. Pepper plants (1 red, 1 green) are looking healthy. My tomato plants (3 plants, 1 grape tomato) are going gang busters and they are the best they have looked in years. Probably have some tomatoes to pick in about 2-3 weeks. Yellow squash look sickly and yellowish. First I had thought it was because it was to wet but the last week or two it has dried up a good deal so I am probably looking at a fungus in the soil. Overall I am happy with the garden, it looks the best it has in the last 3 years.

In the old days farmers would catch Snipes and release them into the fields to control moths and other garden pests. They are somewhat elusive so they would send their young and agile children to catch these critters. If anyone is interested I can PM you the specific directions on how best to catch them. Another method employed was to try to attract them into the fields. Snipes love candy corn, so quite often farmers would strew it liberally throughout the fields. But this method had its drawbacks as it attracted another pest, the neighborhood children.

Nowhere near the experience and knowledge of those on here when it comes to severe but this coming Friday into Saturday has my interest somewhat.

Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

Measured 4.5" at 3:00 am here in Hanover just across the MD line. If I would have snow boarded was probably talking nearer to 6 all things considered. Went to bed at 7:30 so didn't witness it for fact but looking through the layers of the snow fall I see no indications we ever turned over to sleet or rain. So it looks to be an all snow event. Except for a brief period of time in the late afternoon where the snow got somewhat icey for the most part we were probably talking around 10:1 ratio snow and probably closer to 12:1 by the time I went to bed. But the ratios don't mean a thing when a light to somewhat moderate snow is falling into 33-34 degree temps and the ground is being heated by the deadly March sun. Temps did finally hit freezing at sundown and then that was when decent accumulations started occurring. So final call here of 4.5".

12K is coming in wetter and farther north with the max strip of precip by hour 12.

Ratios once you get out into the farther NW subs will probably be 10:1 possibly 12:1 around the favored locals around the PA line.