burgertime
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Everything posted by burgertime
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Also just want to point out many here getting upset at runs not showing 1 foot of snow are likely to still get a good 4-6. I get being in ENC fretting about this storm. But if you're in WNC you should be counting your blessings and overjoyed at what you're seeing.
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ICON is not a terrible look. Lines up with the Euro/EPS.
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RDU you folks look away...you probably won't like the EPS run tonight
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EPS looks closer to the OP run. Def took a jump from 12z with being less suppressed.
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Only problem is the Euro took a step away from the GFS. Hang in there, there is still hope.
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Yea I thought early on with our energy Thurs/Friday it was already weaker than the GFS. As always the waiting game. Hope it was worth staying up for
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I know there is a lot of doom and gloom but let's see at 12z if Euro is making a trend back to a weaker more Miller A type solution. This was a good step IMHO.
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GFS at least for NC folks was further northwest and more amped. Euro: GFS
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GIF of 500mb. Arrow is the starting point of our energy. Also another piece drops from Canada.
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Given the GFS this is not too bad. Very curious to see if in future runs it makes it less and less amped.
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@123 WNC is getting hammered.
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@111 lots of WAA....the good news is, it's not as a bad as the GFS. The bad news is there is a lot of warm air with it as others have pointed out.
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@108 weaker and more positively tilted. It's trying.
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Out to 105 this looks like it's gonna be better than the GFS run.
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Both the 12z Euro and 00z GFS had the low closed at this point. So this run of the Euro is seeing it not as strong. Now we'll see what happens.
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Out to 93 now it's caught up with the GFS but it's weaker. Not closed off yet.
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@87 our energy is south of the GFS. 00z GFS has it at the Nebraska border while the Euro has it at the TX/OK border.
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Out to 81 energy is a bit weaker than the GFS and the 12z Euro run. Also a tick slower than the 12z Euro run
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One thing as well that gives me a bit of hope is how the Euro is handling the energy in the south vs. the GFS at around the 50+ hours. It's pushing it further south than the GFS is on it's OP runs. We're in a weather pattern so usually you're gonna repeat things to a degree.
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Stay up for the party! Out to 48 and not huge differences just yet. One thing that may give hope is previous runs had energy in the southeast stronger than it is now at 500mb.
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I'll try haha. On my phone as I didn't get a good sleep and I'm gonna have a look at this then hit the hay. So may be more of a synopsis.
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Great write up! Especially in the ops/ens. Very informative. As usual with winter storms in the south it’s going to come down to 2 days out before we really know anything. What a headache for the weather services. I’m split on this. On the one hand the OP just doesn’t look “right” given the setup…but what is more likely? A once in a lifetime Miller A or the usual thing which is a Miller B hot mess that only folks north and west of I-40 cash in on? Time will tell the tale.
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Last post of the night for me. Icon is snowier for NC. See you for the 00z runs!
