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burgertime

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Everything posted by burgertime

  1. burgertime
    18z looks better orientated at 5h to me it's trying to get to a big solution.
  2. burgertime
    Here is the snow map out to 141
  3. burgertime
    NC folks are praying for this solution
  4. burgertime
    12z is def further south and weaker than the 6z run.
  5. burgertime
    Funny thing always happens. When the SE sees a winter threat I usually do as well on this side of the globe. We've also suffered a snow drought so I feel your pain (though we got snow last night). At this point I think all we can hope for is a good setup. It looks to me like a descent setup. Lots of energy flying around a cold air source and moisture on tap. Curious to see how the 12z models look!
  6. burgertime
    Checking in on the threads and it's good to see hardcore weenie action is still alive and well. Hope everyone impacted by this storm stays safe!
  7. burgertime
    Hoping everyone stays stays safe in the SE. Just saw the Euro and wow, hopefully it weakens in the next 24-48 hours.
  8. burgertime
    First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands. Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next week and beyond looks interesting for sure. The 12z Euro map was a bit crazy. If this ULL can drop a little further south some folks outside of the mountains in NC/SC could get in on the action. Something to keep an eye on.
  9. burgertime
    That storm on the GFS looked a bit uh...cracked out to me. ULL driving across the apps then cranking a bit off the coast with the secondary low. On the SFC you end up with 3 lows all around each other. That Tuesday storm looks more appealing to me. But this has been a crazy winter for ya'll so anything is on the table I guess.
  10. burgertime
    I said it over in the sanatorium that I felt like someone along I-85 or wherever that band setups will get 4-8. It's a bit of an absurd call but this feels like one of those rare setups where someone really gets hammered. I always take the HRRR with a grain of salt but that band just east of CLT can setup east or west further than shown and it's gonna be a blitz on whoever is under it.
  11. burgertime
    HRRR was showing what looked like possible thunder snow on the composite radar. Someone is going to get some super heavy returns and if this phases a little faster someone could get more.
  12. burgertime
    18z has a nice little 4 inch maxima around CLT.
  13. burgertime
    It SHOULD create a better situation as it can better phase with the southern energy earlier...but that probably has more implications for the NE and MA. If it phases sooner that should help enhance that mesoscale low.
  14. burgertime
    GFS also further east with the northern energy. That'll make a difference for everyone downstream if it keeps that pace of being slower than the models see.
  15. burgertime
    I believe we had an event either 2011 or 2014. We had cold air in place and an overrunning event. Flakes were tiny and it was a super dry powder. Ended up with around 3 inches and a high of like 22 IRRC. By the way for everyone reading, by all means get excited. Just temper it with the fact that IF it's that cold of an artic air mass you just gotta get lucky on the front end or wait for it to start to break down.
  16. burgertime
    Time will tell just seen more often than not cold air masses like that give us the big squash. Had euro been folding more to the GFS? Euro is way better here in Europe vs GFS with overall climo.
  17. burgertime
    Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it.
  18. burgertime
    Yep if you're around Spartenburg, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord and Monroe be on the look out!
  19. burgertime
    Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers.
  20. burgertime
    If you get under a heavy band it likely will happen. These convective snows can really put out.
  21. burgertime
    Seems like a good call here. Though I do think this low could go rouge and still help you guys out in RDU. Gonna use my "healing skies" gut for that.
  22. burgertime
    I'm gonna make an absurd call and say this weekend's system over performs from I-85 to RDU with localized 4-8 wherever the heaviest bands setup.
  23. burgertime
    Gotta love how models are throwing the deep freeze across the south but that's also gonna put energy into the meat grinder if that happens. Need to catch the front edge or the tail end or it's gonna be another wishing on the perfect phase.
  24. burgertime
    Honestly you can look at the models till your eyes bleed but it's going to be a nowcast situation. Setup at 5h is there though and getting a quick 2-4 under this setup should be fun. I feel like this is one of the few times it could really catch a lot by surprise but optimism in the southeast is like wishing on the lottery haha.
  25. burgertime
    I wouldn't be so hung up on QPF. This likely won't be big storm. But given the setup it has a good shot of over-performing. Everything will be reliant on how this system phases. Right now the jackpot zone looks along I-85 but this is a fluid situation etc.. That can move or expand quickly.
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