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burgertime

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Everything posted by burgertime

  1. burgertime
    NAM is really sticking to its guns on this one. It's really anyone's guess how this plays out. Will be a true nowcast situation.
  2. burgertime
    Narrow AI!
  3. burgertime
    Also he won't take any credit for his call
  4. burgertime
    Hmmm... this was the 00z run from last night. So maybe he's on to something here.
  5. burgertime
    Isn't the HRRR pretty notorious for this? Looking at global model runs it doesn't look like that cold front is delayed really. Haven't really looked at real time data though. That will say one way or another.
  6. burgertime
    Problem is you're working against the clock in the southeast. 12z was def an eyebrow raiser though. Each tick slower, better phasing brings better results and given the setup it screams that this should be better so nothing wrong with wishing on that star haha.
  7. burgertime
    Yea and it's gonna be tough to get that negative tilt now. Though with the delayed cold front that could slow down that northern energy which you would think would help it phase more.
  8. burgertime
    But not as wet for your backyard.
  9. burgertime
    Not too bad..
  10. burgertime
    Looking at it you can't help but wishcast into phasing sooner. It's so close to looking spectacular for all of you in ENC. Rooting it keeps inching closer to something bigger.
  11. burgertime
    That being said I wouldn't expect so much a "northwest trend" for our low as much as a northwest trend with relation to precip field. Seen this a lot where we get energy overhead and the low associated with it ends up producing more moisture than models can pick up on. Should be a fun little storm if we can keep up these trends. Especially with such cold air aloft.
  12. burgertime
    Everything is going to depend on when those two pieces of energy phase. Also notice the energy in the north swooping down. If that could come in a little faster could help lift this more. I do like that vort energy going right over NC. Again that should help wring out what moisture is there for folks further west in NC.
  13. burgertime
  14. burgertime
    12z GFS is looking better. At 500mb it's better phased. Need to keep watching these last minute changes.
  15. burgertime
    Can't recall that. Do remember a storm I think in 2011 maybe that CLT was under heavy snow warnings and it ended up being all rain. Now that was a disaster.
  16. burgertime
    March 2009 comes to mind for me. ULL was all over the place and then at the last second folks along I-85 cashed in.
  17. burgertime
    But do they work on government contracts? By the way as global warming becomes more and more of an issue weather models are going to be more and more important. That should bring budgets but it will also bring a lot of secrecy. The government isn't just going to hire any contractor to work on NSA servers for instance. Also congress has proven over and over again that when it comes to NOAA they will not approve anything unless they are forced to because of some catastrophic event.
  18. burgertime
    Yea this isn't a bad look and hopefully you can cash in. In fact I think for most of NC it wouldn't be too bad either. As @NorthHillsWx said this would be very powdery snow so snow ratios wouldn't be great but for most what falls would stick.
  19. burgertime
    Congrats outerbanks!
  20. burgertime
    This is a weird run. Brings back moisture at 57 largely due to a strong vort overhead. Would likely wring out all the moisture. This honestly isn't the worst solution. Especially compared to the NAM run.
  21. burgertime
    Out to 48 GFS is drier than the 12z run. It does have a little bit stronger energy at 500mb so it's still trying to get it there for NC. Better than the NAM for sure.
  22. burgertime
    18z GFS is trying out to 39. Looks more like the 12z solution so far.
  23. burgertime
    In a perfect world yes. But you're dealing with an agency that has already been gutted. Plus because these are either run or partnered with governments you can't just get contracts over night etc.. How does NOAA go about using offshore contractors? Can they trust Russian developers? What about Chinese? What about Indian? This is very very complicated even outside of the development and machine learning aspect.
  24. burgertime
    It 1000% is.
  25. burgertime
    It must be exhausting being a voice of reason
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