dseagull

Im patient. What i would like to avoid is late winter/early spring coastals with rain. Good for nothing in my life. I'm a hige fan of drought conditions during my work season.

As promised.... If it didn't come back by 12z today, I'd lead the charge off the cliff. Adios, storm. Bring on spring. Work boats will be dropped back into the water slowly beginning next week, as seasonal maintenance is done. Personal boats will be in by the ides of March. Goodbye underarmor, winter coats, gloves, and scotch. Hello shorts, flip flops, beautiful scenery, and beer. Maybe next year

Sure am. Fully expect a coastal scraper to materialize. Solid 2-4 NYC, 3-6 Long Island, Coastal NJ 2-6 from Asbury to IBSP. 4-8 from IBSP to ACY, 6-10 from ACY to Cape May. Could see more, could see less. Always worth tracking something that actually exists to track.

Well, whole town on barnegat bay is without power. My scanner is going nuts. Several pole fires and two sub station faults. This is going to be a 2 or 3 day repair for parts of town I'm sure. So happy I invested in a whole home generator.

My whole town just lost power. Two sub stations failed and we have several pole fires ongoing at the same time. Unreal.

Wild squall just came through down here as well. Easy 55-60mph gust and torrential rain. Short lived.

But a storm still is happening. Just not the way or in the same place as once modeled. Still useful for advanced signaling, even if not accurate. But.... heartbreak will be real quite often. At least the sub forum is acclimated to the pain.

Patience. Approaching coastal scraper bomb territory already. Wouldnt take much more than 75 miles to give everyone their largest totals of the season. Looking forward to the server getting bogged down tonight or tomorrow morning when the Euro shows something closer to yesterday's early runs.

Take it and run with it.

You beat me to it. I have so much video from that storm. Incredible hit down here with that bomb. Just wish it wasn't so fast.

I have a lot of respect for the man, as he uses conventional wisdom/meteorology more than most these days. He also admits when he blows a forecast. However... He is puting all his eggs in one basket with the kicker and the modeled positive, almost neutral tilt of the low. My feeling is that he is reminding himself of the seasonal trends we have witnessed thus far, and weighing his forecast heavily on this. Not necessarily a bad idea. I'd like to see where we stand tonight and tomorrow morning. Not sure why the rush to put out "first calls" when you have established viewership. Seems like poorly managed risk/reward. But what do I know... im just a boat captain. Very interesting evolution to follow, regardless of outcome.

Sure, call it. Im not even sure what that means. Does it change anything when one "calls it?" You know damn well you'll continue looking at the models and/or checking this thread until Tuesday at the earliest. Bunch of addicts looking for a fix, myself included. But sure. "Call it"

54.2 on banegat bay. As the low pulls away, the wind has absolutely started to honk. If the modeled wind gusts verify for tomorrow with frequent gusts at or above 60, there will be localized power issues with downed trees.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl harbor?!?! Joking aside, you kind of ruined your argument within your own statement. Sampling isn't nearly done. No cliff jumping yet.

...At least 12Z. I'd say the 00z or even 12Z tomorrow. I'd like to see how the energy that just came ashore is handled. Ill lead the way off the cliff to spring valhalla if it doesnt come back by then. But im not paying much attention to the damn Icon.

Euro 12z and 00z runs the next 18 hours should be telling.

Going to be a fun few days ahead.

Its coming buddy...

Ill put 700 gallons of diesel in the boat anyway, just for good measure. Fyi: I take PayPal, venmo, and personal checks. Diesel isn't cheap.

This is what I was questioning earlier. Im not sure i understand the sudden consensus. They are all either very right, or very wrong. But it's clearly the same data. I dont have access to the maps right now.

Hahahah

Desperate times call for desperate measures. I'll call up my addict friends and tell them I'm sailing for a deep drop trip to the Hudson Canyon on Wednesday and Thursday for tilefish. Guarantee we get a tucked 965mb low inside the benchmark if i make these plans. I'll put 700 gallons of diesel in the boat first thing tomorrow morning. You can all thank me later.

Good god... only a 300 mile jump.

Good on you! Most would fear being labeled as a wishcaster, or delusional... or desperate... lol I just have a difficult time believing that all models would suddenly and accurately find consensus at this lead time before the cirrent storm has left the region. Generally, this (in my experience planning work on the water,) has resulted from similar data sets being ingested into all models. It's not to say they are wrong, but it's a bit peculiar this far out.