tnweathernut

Not sure why it’s wanting to take the energy for the second storm in the base of the trough and send it SW through TX creating what looks like a strung out mess. I still think this one has potential, but I don’t like what it’s doing at 500. if the ridge on the west coast was tilting to the northeast I could see energy doing this, but it’s a really nice ridge so I think the more reasonable solution would be to swing it through. I could be missing something, but this is what I see.

The second system looks like it would be primarily an overrunning setup that minors out as it moves east.

Storm 2 looks a bit deeper and a touch further SW than 18z. Probably snows somewhere in the southeast/Deep South at the surface with that one too.

Really liked the look at 500. Numerous runs have shown a very vigorous piece of energy. In reality it’s probably somewhere between the GFS and Euro, which would mean a pretty good chance at snow for someone on our forum, even if just light.

Boom goes the dynamite from hour 102 to 108 for the half of the state, especially east TN. Snow map will be pretty for some.

I expect this will be another decent run at the surface.

0z GFS looks more like 12z than 18z with the incoming trough midweek

I don’t think we are close enough to discuss timing. I’m still trying to determine if the threat is a legit threat. Got a little closer today though, IMO.

Selfishly, I'm more interested in the one closest in time currently. There looks to be a lot of energy with that system and a decent shot to overperform for someone from the east TN/southern apps part of our region. What catches my eye about this one is the GFS (normally our progressive model) is the one that closes off at 500, slowing the flow and popping a lee side low, while the Euro briefly closes off in the Ohio Valley, but quickly opens back up and scoots harmlessly out to sea. The initial system aside, I think the follower has the potential to be a big system. If you cycle through 500, the piece of energy around day 6 as shown on the 12z GFS comes in much further west through western Montana. Interestingly, even though at the surface it was a smoke show for the entire midsouth, it could have been even bigger if the piece from the four corners had gotten out in front of the energy diving south through the Dakotas (shown above) allowing for a phase. It's this piece in the four corners that detaches from the flow that @Carvers Gap notes as something to watch around the 20-21st. The Euro is much different in the evolution regarding the follower. Lots will change in the next couple of days, but even the Euro while saying no shows quite a bit of "potential".

I can hardly wait for all the Facebook weather experts to tell us about the feet of snow we will all be getting………. (Sarcasm alert)

I really think it will be interesting to see if modeling is onto something with the vigor of storm 1. That’s been off and on various models the last couple of days.

I’ll allow it……. I think I’m equally impressed that those two storms hit the entire state with 9”+, except for the far NW corner

The winter signal on the happy hour GFS is still there around day 7

I'll echo the others. Praying for your mother and you too.

I don't think he forgot at all. Looks like a west and middle event - of course it will change iterations again in 4 hours so this probably doesn't matter. He was just saying the east looked ok too.... Overall, the pattern looks to be moving into a position conducive to something other than rain in the SE. Next step, get something within day 5/6.

Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap? lol

The pieces are moving and 500 is throwing some good looks. Looks like we are no longer waiting for things to evolve into a pattern that could change, the wheels seem to be well in motion.

I'd give you guys 3-4 minor events if I could have the big dog. lol Keep the moisture feed going with the cold (enough) air close by and we will at least be at the right ballpark. Just need a ticket to get in.

I mentioned a few days ago we do a really good job of kicking the can. The other thing we seem to do well in the mid-south is whiff when the pieces of the puzzle on a large scale line up. We've at least gotten past kicking the can for the ridge of doom in the Aleutians. Now to see if we can buck the second thing we are good at between Jan 15 and 25th. I'm cautiously optimistic.

I’m in this boat also. I typically only get excited looking for a possible window once we near and get under truncation (hr180). One thing we do well in the southeast during winter is kick the can. That said, I really appreciate those who keep the page updated regarding the longer range. Things have been crazy at my office ever since the flooding from Helene. I just can’t participate like I want to. I know it takes a lot of time. Hat tip to you guys……. I am encouraged we seem we are moving to a less hostile Pacific. Let’s reel that in and see what, if any, threats materialize. Mid January to mid February is our sweet spot, so that encouraging also. As @Carvers Gapnoted several times, marginal can work during this period and as we get deeper into winter.

Interesting, ole DB would have been my first guess. lol - Statements like that make me question his credentials

Who was the met?

Can confirm we had about 1/2 inch overnight. I'm about 5.1 miles NNE of Jonesborough on the map, south of I-81. Was a total surprise.

Even when I'm negative on here, I'm still optimistic at heart. It's common for a snow lover to be that way. When it comes to snow in the south you'd be silly to cancel winter in December. We usually only hope for a widespread threat or two all year and it seems flukey snows happen as much as well modeled ones. Might as well hold out hope through early spring. I think one of my only contributions lately has been noting the stubbornness of the ridge in the Aleutians not being good for business (snow and cold). I was surprised to see @Carvers Gapmention 1996 had that feature.

Right there with you, except 22 (girl), 19 (boy)..... And yes, blink of an eye. Crazy fast.