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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    I think northeast TN is in a pretty good spot. If I was in Knoxville west to the plateau I'd be much more concerned about precipitation amounts, and I think middle TN needs a prayer. Lots of modeling has a good pass and good consistency. I noticed the ICON (which I don't really like) jumped west and finally joined the other models. Of course we could fail, but I am much more confident about this one than the last system.
  2. tnweathernut
    People still look at the GFS?
  3. tnweathernut
    I have it out enough to see it's a plateau to east TN event. Haven't seen the precip panels yet. It whiffs middle TN completely.
  4. tnweathernut
    We may have a system around that time, but at that range it's like blindfolding a monkey and having him throw snow darts at a US map. I think we will all be ready (snow or no late week into the weekend) for a break for warmer temps and to see if we can reset for the middle of February and have another opportunity before we are all ready for spring. JMO Though I will add...................... it would be very Tennessee to whiff on a couple of good snow opportunities and then back into a marginal event during a period we are supposed to warm up. lol
  5. tnweathernut
    12Z GFS AI blitzes east TN with a lot of moisture. Would be around 2-3" for the midstate, 4-8" plateau east, and 6-10" northeast TN......... Mountains a foot+
  6. tnweathernut
    GFS with a tip of the cap to you here at 12z. Kuchera is 1.0 on the dot. lol
  7. tnweathernut
    I’m ready to be hurt again, but that’s probably 30 years of sales experience and dealing with rejection helping me out……lol.
  8. tnweathernut
    I think what we're hoping for is a lee-side low developing in response to the upper-level energy moving through. If the surface low tucks closer to the coast, it could indicate slower progression of the overall system due to the upper dynamics, which would give more time for precipitation to wrap around and develop over the eastern parts of TN
  9. tnweathernut
    Why does the GFS has to be a continual tease for east and especially northeast TN? I've have 40+ inches of modeled snow from that wretched model and only have 1/2" that melted away to show for it.. lol
  10. tnweathernut
    After what seems like a train of downslope events, i'm sure most in our area would sign up for a 2-4" snow, especially if we don't have to use that term.......
  11. tnweathernut
    https://x.com/FLStormChasers_/status/2015854097153302774?s=20 lol
  12. tnweathernut
    I think eastern folks should not tap out just yet because of this possible feature.............. It won't take much to be a decent event with such high ratios.
  13. tnweathernut
    The good news with this type of setup is there should be a fairly quick resolution to whether this will work around parts of Tennessee or not. I believe if it's not going to work it will move toward a mostly coastal or central Carolina snow over the next 24-36 hours of runs.
  14. tnweathernut
    With high ratios .15-.2 would be a nice 3-5 inch snow. Even a glancing blow would be fairly significant for our area. Just something to keep in mind.
  15. tnweathernut
    This type of setup is more likely to whiff, IMO. It's funny, the last system we went so far west the phase started in the 4 corners region of the southwest............... This time we need it further west and the likely result will probably be a further east phase than is needed to snow on parts of the mid-south.
  16. tnweathernut
    The setup reminds me of a couple of classic central and eastern Carolina snowstorms in the past. Maybe east TN can back into a decent snow? I'd say this one has high whiff potential, but the high end of what could happen is a high ratio super cold snow (which we rarely have any chance of seeing outside of northwest flow)
  17. tnweathernut
    Hoping a northern stream vort makes it far enough south and then blows up in the perfect spot to grab Atlantic moisture and throw it all the way back into the southern apps seems like much less than a 10% chance……. lol
  18. tnweathernut
    It would be nice if out of 10 ways to snow there weren’t 9 ways to be hosed, but we live in TN so we almost always go to bat with a 10% chance to thread a needle. New England is the place where 9 of 10 ways can snow and there’s only 1 way to be hosed.
  19. tnweathernut
    I mentioned ahead of time to watch the period from the 22 to the end of the month, but only mentioned it as a period to watch…. I stayed skeptical of a big snow to my friends when the GEM threw us the warning shot of not only WAA, but massive WAA into east TN 4-5 days out.
  20. tnweathernut
    Let’s get Holston to put together one of those trend gif’s at 500 on the euro. You can definitely see it trending further west and deeper……. But looking at 500 there’s only so much room to go even further west
  21. tnweathernut
    What will be interesting to watch here will be the flow coming out of Canada, IMO. The current storm trended well west with the northern stream from day 7 to day 3. This time, I think the amount of westward trend potential is likely muted. There are some weak impulses in the southern stream, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities this storm, if real, can come west some.
  22. tnweathernut
    It’s possible we whiff the winter, but it’s also possible we are just getting started.
  23. tnweathernut
    While the looks of the last couple of days of storms having disappeared from the long range leaves a snow lover feeling like they are being let down, it is possible we are in that window of time where storms disappear for a couple of days. We just tried being in the bullseye 5-7 days out and that failed miserably here in east TN. Let’s try the models saying all clear and see if they can be wrong that way also. At least the cold will be such that anything that does pop up has a chance to be a snow event for the mid-south.
  24. tnweathernut
    Prayers and well-wishes to you guys out west. Hang in there!!
  25. tnweathernut
    The biggest story will likely be the power losses and frigid cold that follows. It’s unfortunate to sit here and know many in the power loss areas won’t be prepared. With SO many outages across multiple states, it will stretch the massive resources that were called to be ready. God bless these linemen….
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