Chinook

sunset tonight I guess our area will get a second (mostly light) snow event from a northwest-flow shortwave on Saturday night. It may start to come in as early as 18z Saturday.

Tonight's No-Accumualtion Model (NAM) is doing the exact opposite: lots of accumulation for Colorado, New Meixco, ansd southeast Nebraska. I think these values are overdone, to some degree.

The models have struggled with some of the features of the upcoming storm system. At this point, there seems to be some agreement that most of CO/NM will get lighter snows of 1"-4" on the mountains, maybe some for Denver. Along with that, some larger precip values will be in SW New Mexico. The main 500mb shortwave will create a low-impact rain/snow event for the Plains/Midwest. At this time, the whole region is falling behind on snowpack, as some higher elevations of Colorado should be getting 30" per month, but that rate of snow is not happening right now. The Canadian/Euro have some more substantial snow for NE New Mexico over to Texas at some on Friday night/Saturday.

Every single model run seems to be different, at about hour ~126

If you are bored with the weather here, a strong trough in Europe is bringing in a moist southerly cloud band, may produce 200cm to 350cm (138") of snow in Italy.

Storm loops http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_500mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_850mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_radar_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_satellite_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_NWS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_GFS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_GFS_moisture_loop.html

There is some localized moderate snow or maybe even heavy snow in Kansas and Oklahoma. I guess there is a localized winter storm warning for this.

Maybe the Euro will bring this storm back. I am rooting for you to have your SOI change prediction come true, and I'm rooting for any precipitation in the Southwest whatsoever.

On Wednesday, a 500mb low will develop and slosh around under the blocking scenario. Normally this would be a big storm for us as it would have brought in moisture from the Pacific, but it's kind of a non-event this time.

No matter what happens, I will try to post some 4- or 5-day loops of GFS 500mb plot, GFS surface/precip, NWS surface analysis, possibly GFS 700-400mb moisture, possibly IR satellite pics, possibly regional radar for Ohio.

Once again, the 12z Canadian has a more phased storm and has 7-10" of snow for western Ohio. I am starting to wonder which group will win the model-wars-- progressive vs deeper and more phased. It will have a lot of impact on my family members.

I'm still rooting for the 00z Canadian for NW Ohio. It came back on board with 6-13" across western Ohio, depending on whether you not you show Kuchera ratios or 10:1.

500mb storm spinning over Albuquerque

Sunset on 11/25

Just for kicks, I dare you to find a GEFS plume/map with over 20" for Columbus, OH

There's a chance that the Southwest will get two closed low pressures at 500mb, without getting much snow out of it, for any state. I read Joe Bastardi's weather discussion for a few years. He constantly mentioned the daily SOI as a source of change in the subtropical jet stream. But I always have had a hard time tracking equatorial disturbances toward the US.

Looks like the middle of Denver got 0.6" liquid equivalent or a bit more.

My place got about 1" (up to 0.15" liquid equivalent) and it was sunny with light winds in the afternoon.

Perhaps a surprise heavy snow band for NE Colorado

The Denver area could get some snow developing early Tuesday. Maybe this one will not be a total bust like the last potential snowstorm. WPC blended forecast has about 0.1" for me and 0.2" to 0.4" near Denver, better snowfall southwest towards the San Juan and Sawatch/mid Colorado.

Any mention of November 2000 brings back the memories of how the Midwest descended into the cold-blitz of December 2000. I think my place got either synoptic snow or lake-effect snow every day that month.

80 degrees after November 15th

I think the models have lost our storm, essentially, showing lighter amounts of snow for the mountains on those days.

Some pics

This may be overdone, but we could get 0.25" or better east of the mountains. According to what I've seen, I guess there is a chance of rain for part of this storm.