roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Since AI is supposed to learn, it probably just looked at the last 10 years of every winter storm tracking south and weaker of the projected track a few days out. lol
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Is a +WPO common during a Nina Autumn? Without looking into it, I feel like we usually see low heights out there during a Nina Autumn which helps with the common mild October we so often experience in a Nina.
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It was interesting to track 10 years ago, now it’s just boring.
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Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter?
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It just seems crazy to me that a volcano can throw as much water vapor into the atmosphere as this one did and it’s pretty much shrugged off as nothing to see here.
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Over here, we're only down .64 for the year and actually slightly above normal at this point in the month with 1.59 inches this month. You guys have definitely been much drier over there.
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If I'm remembering correctly, isn't this what you want to see in October according to the research Bluewave has done?
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That’s crazy. The sensible weather even felt the same.
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I can’t remember for sure but I always thought it was based on how much the snowcover advances from the beginning of October until the end. In that case, you wouldn’t want above normal snowcover in early October I would assume.
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Fall 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
If we’re going to have nice “warm” days it might as well be October(especially early October). A cold and wet October isn’t exciting to me anyway unless you’re just looking for the first flakes of snow. November on the other hand is when we need a more active pattern for severe and or winter weather. -
I think these warm blobs are nothing more than a result of the pattern and not an influencer of the pattern. I think it could help feedback but no way can it overpower other influencing factors IMO.
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Yeah. Volume doesn't really tell you much about what's happening now. The low volume is the result of decades of warming. We could have an asteroid impact the planet today and cool it 3 degrees and the volume would still be low next year.
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I never really compared those winters so I don't know without looking into it.
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In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.
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Yeah. The dewpoints usually aren’t real high and the longer nights allow it to start cooling down fairly early even if it does get really warm during the afternoon.
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Mid 30s here this morning. I looked for frost on the rooftops this morning but didn't see any.
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Is that even possible?
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Yeah. There’s a couple areas around here where there’s some groups of trees that have a decent amount of color. There’s always some trees with color at this time of year but I feel like it’s been awhile since there’s been this much color already in early September.
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If that happens this winter, I expect if someone working in an Antarctic research station posts a tweet about it, you’ll find it and post it here. lol
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I’ll take Nina over Nino every time around here in the winter. Hopefully we do have a “warm” October. It feels like a lot of times a cold October turns into a mild December. Although, that’s probably due to a cold October being more common in a Nino. A cold October is kind of useless anyway except for chasing the first flakes of the season or some sloppy early season slush accumulation that melts in a few hours.
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I’m pretty sure the model was forecasting all of that below average snow because it had a country wide blowtorch. So it was right for the wrong reason pretty much.
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August started cool and obviously ended very cool with just “heat” in the middle of the month which was more like very warm with obnoxious dewpoints. July was certainly hot overall but June was fairly cool until the last week to 10 days of the month. For all the talk of record setting ridges and all that stuff, it wasn’t even anything special for heat.
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I gotta say. This cool airmass is impressive not only in strength but in duration. I mean, the sun has been set for about an hour and a half here and the temperature is already down into the 40s. That’s impressive for August even if it is at the end of the month.
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Yeah. I’m seeing that too. I remember a lot of early color in 2017 after that cool August and early September. Then it of course turned hot in late September as you know. lol.
