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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    It looks like both the 18z euro and euro terminator nudged south.
  2. roardog
    The CFS v2 is pretty much heading toward a super Nino. I’m not sure anything currently indicates that an outcome like that is likely.
  3. roardog
    I remember when we had about 2 inches of sleet in early April 2003 and I can confirm it looks like snow on the ground until you walk on it. I remember it took awhile to melt too even though it was April.
  4. roardog
    Slight bump nw on the RGEM
  5. roardog
    Don’t worry, it’ll be cold NE wind season before you know it while cyclone77 will be basking in 65 degree air. lol
  6. roardog
    I know this doesn’t necessarily mean anything for this particular storm but we have seen NW trends with storms this winter. The storm two weeks ago that no one was paying attention to because it was it was rain and Spring for most of the sub actually trended way NW 48 hours or so prior. It was modeled to go over or south of my house and ended up over northern Lake Michigan I believe. I mentioned something then about how this was the first winter in like 10 years that storms have been trending NW instead of SE.
  7. roardog
    It’s probably because this thread is used for medium/long range pattern prediction while threads in each sub forum are used once an individual threat becomes realistic.
  8. roardog
    I think developing El Niño summers(which we might have this summer) tend to have ridging and heat out there too.
  9. roardog
    Dry is bad this time of year whether it’s warm or cold. Warm and dry here usually consists of temperatures around 35-40 and 30MPH winds. Might as well be cold enough to look like winter when the warm option is still cold. lol
  10. roardog
    I remember the MEI getting to something like -2.3 or something in 2022. I think that’s why that winter acted exactly like how I would picture a super Nina to act.
  11. roardog
    On another note, I noticed the CFS is trying to take us to a very strong Nino next winter. I wonder if it’s on to something or it’s just reactionary to what’s currently happening.
  12. roardog
    I don’t know. When I think front loaded winter, I don’t think of a massive arctic outbreak in late January and possible +PNA going into February.
  13. roardog
    I’m not nearly as knowledgeable as most people here on MJO stuff but the look at the end of the ensembles does not look like a phase 8 or even 7 for that matter to me. It almost looks like it’s moving to something you’d see in 6.
  14. roardog
    Looking at the end of the ensemble runs, it looks like a country wide blowtorch is developing for the end of the month into beginning of Feb as a big blue ball develops from Alaska to the south then moving into the west coast.
  15. roardog
    I didn’t know that. That’s surprising to me. It usually takes until sometime in May for it to be warm enough for dandelions around here. I usually don’t have to cut my lawn until May though either. So I guess NYC is like San Juan compared to here when it comes to plant life. lol
  16. roardog
    Spring snowstorms actually have the benefit of potentially much warmer air to the south causing a stronger storm. It just has to have cold enough air to work with on the cold side which isn’t always a guarantee the deeper into March you go.
  17. roardog
    It's crazy to me that soil temperatures could even be warm enough to produce a growing plant in what is a colder than normal winter at the latitude of Boston even if there's a week or two of above normal temps.
  18. roardog
    At least you’ll have a good snowpack to maximize the brutal cold that is coming next week.
  19. roardog
    Yeah. It’s rare to see a forecast bust that bad these days. Although my yard only had about an inch from this system, it was still a surprise. I wasn’t expecting much snow this morning and next thing I knew it was snowing very hard around 8am. I looked at the radar and there was snow developing all over the SE quarter of the state and I thought then that the forecast could be a bust.
  20. roardog
    If the western US doesn’t get some precip this winter it could be bad next summer if it’s dry out there.
  21. roardog
    The last real concrete i remember here was early January 2024. It snowed pretty hard for hours and we got like 2 inches of snow. lol. It was 33F or 34F the whole time.
  22. roardog
    Not too many posters have probably been paying attention to this storm but there has been a huge NW/stronger trend with this over the last few days. It doesn't mean much to most here but to see systems becoming stronger as they get closer in time instead of weaker like we've seen the last 10 years is different.
  23. roardog
    After 23-24 I feel like most posters here would rather take their chances with a decently +PDO if we have to deal with a stronger Nino. The -PDO with the mc forcing seemed to make things worse for sure.
  24. roardog
    What did RONI peak at in 23-24? I feel like the atmosphere behaved more like a strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO than anything weaker than that.
  25. roardog
    Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.
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