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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    There’s no doubt it’s most likely going to be a very mild winter for the country overall. Maybe I’m being picky but I don’t like how 97-98 kind of progressed backward of what you’d expect from a Nino with February being the warmest month that season. If you’re going to use 97-98 as your analog season and December ends up being the warmest month then it wasn’t 97-98 like at all IMO. Maybe everyone disagrees with me, I don’t know. lol
  2. roardog
    Do you think we’ll progress the same as 1997 or are you just talking about the warmth being the same for the east coast when winter is over?
  3. roardog
    The North American pattern has looked nothing like 1997 to this point. 1997 had a cold November for much of the country. I’m skeptical that we see that same pattern this year. 1997 also had a wintrier pattern the first half of winter than the second. I’m also skeptical of that. We may very well end up with the same results as that winter when all is said and done but if the progression and the way we get there is completely different than is tough to say it’s a match IMO.
  4. roardog
    He’s back!!!!
  5. roardog
    It definitely seems ahead of recent years by about a week unless my memory of recent years is just way off. lol
  6. roardog
    Forky likes to oversimplify the atmosphere. If it was that simple then why did December 2006 through the first three quarters of January 2007 have a more hostile pattern than the same period in 1997-1998? 2006-2007 was a much, much weaker east based El Niño.
  7. roardog
    I just like interesting weather. For a quarter of the year or maybe even a little more, the only interesting weather around here is winter weather. When your options are a wind driven 35 or 40 degree rain or a wind driven snowstorm, I’ll obviously take the snowstorm every time. The problem around here is that a “warm” winter isn’t warm. It’s not like you’re going to be spending a bunch of outdoors enjoying the weather around here during a “warm” winter unless you like cloudy and windy days in the 30s.
  8. roardog
    All regions are on a rapid rise. Even Nino 4 is finally heading back up rapidly.
  9. roardog
    It seems like it's been forever since the arctic has had below normal heights in October. It seems like every year as we go from September to October, the high latitudes turn into a red paint bomb with both heights and 850 temps.
  10. roardog
    Yeah we had some big 32 degree snowstorms in 2015-2016. I know we’re in an east coast thread right now so even if the mean temp ends up higher than 97-98, it doesn’t mean the east coast can’t get a massive event with just enough cold air if the timing is right. This is what I mean by saying you can’t just look at 97-98 and say it’s going to be a duplicate winter and expect little to snow on the east coast because of it. Like I said, the atmosphere isn’t that simple.
  11. roardog
    If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy.
  12. roardog
    I thought the Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay was not usually a Nino feature in October though.
  13. roardog
    October 31st. It seems like El Nino likes snow on Halloween here.
  14. roardog
    74F here with upper 50s for a dewpoint. It’s crazy the far southern part of the state still has 70F dewpoints. I don’t even know when the last 90F was here without looking. Sometime in July probably.
  15. roardog
    Not as accurate as the bank clock.
  16. roardog
    The resources you use everyday contribute to it just as much as everyone else.
  17. roardog
    A strong El Niño favors a cool Fall that turns mild for December but who knows.
  18. roardog
    I’ve been on these boards for over 25 years and I’ve yet to find a more optimistic poster than jebman.
  19. roardog
    Looking at those temp departures, It looks like we were in between the “cold” east of here and the very mild not too far west of here. I could see how it could have been a clipper pattern around here that winter. I wonder if that is what helped Detroit to get to average snow.
  20. roardog
    Yeah. There’s some questionable temp records from the early days of record keeping for sure.
  21. roardog
    It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive.
  22. roardog
    When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO.
  23. roardog
    The media will have you believe that every heatwave is a “heat dome” that will melt your entire body and you’ll end up in the city sewer system. Meanwhile every cold snap is the polar vortex coming south instantly freezing every human or animal outside in place. In reality, sometimes it’s just really cold in winter and really hot in summer.
  24. roardog
    I don’t know about that. The whole sub could be 30 inches above average in snow and 2 degrees above average in temps and we’ll still get CAD posts. lol
  25. roardog
    With the way the CPC “ forecast” works they might as well. The darkest red area of Texas was a 60-70% probability of being above average. That means there was a 30-40% probability of it not being above average. The northeast corner of the state had a 40-50% probability. So there was a higher chance it wouldn’t be above average. lol
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