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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    So is the anomaly drop in 1+2 on the CFS v2 for the rest of the summer really going to happen? Why would this happen? Everyone is talking about how crazy high the forecast for 3.4 is but if we think the model has a handle on things then 1+2 should be dropping soon.
  2. roardog
    You might be but I'm not sure your phone or keyboard is since you only show up when it's warm.
  3. roardog
    Yeah. Anywhere east of Lake Michigan has bust potential tomorrow. At the very least there will probably be some dying convection moving through for a cloudy period at some point. Tuesday and Wednesday SHOULD be legit heat but I’m never convinced until I wake up that day and see no convection or debris clouds around.
  4. roardog
    How cold was June 1876 if there was still ice in Duluth on June 28?
  5. roardog
    What we need is the designation of basin wide east based Nino. lol
  6. roardog
    It reminds me of the one the models all had earlier this month. The models and the forecast had several days in the mid 90s here just a few days before and we ended up in the low 80s with some of those days in the 70s. That was actually a huge heat bust. Let's see if this one comes to fruition.
  7. roardog
    I always thought a true Modoki or west based El Nino had 1+2 below Nino threshold or even negative. I recall discussion on that here sometime in the past when Bastardi would call any Nino with 1+2 having a lower anomaly than 4 a Modoki and people would say that is incorrect. So wouldn't the same apply to an east based Nino just opposite? 1997 at this time had a true east based Nino IMO with region 4 at 0.1. If having the entire Nino basin be above 0.5 isn't basin wide then I guess I don't even know what is.
  8. roardog
    Aren't all the nino regions currently above the .5 threshold?
  9. roardog
    Florida in July? Yuck.
  10. roardog
    I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess.
  11. roardog
    Now that we’re heading through June we can see the big divergence with 1997 is going to be Nino 4. This shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone but it’s still a big deal IMO.
  12. roardog
    It seems like everything is expected to be permanent anymore(droughts,floods,etc)until they aren't.
  13. roardog
    So I actually looked this news article up and it’s kind of what I thought it was going to be. The headline isn’t what he said at all. Basically this guy says he expects a strong El Niño but a dry winter in Wyoming isn’t guaranteed since nothing is guaranteed in weather that far in advance.
  14. roardog
    That seems like a huge change. If they changed their methodology that much then it's hard to take the past numbers seriously. It's almost annoying actually. lol
  15. roardog
    Does it look like the extreme -SOI will continue? It'll be interesting to see how low the 30 day average will go?
  16. roardog
    As long as we have the strong El Niño cool summer then it’s all good.
  17. roardog
    Isn’t the pattern around day 10 close to the normal +enso June look though?
  18. roardog
    If we are to believe the CFS then 1+2 will have a lower anomaly than 3.4 by later this summer. There’s a period of time where 4 is almost the same as 1+2. I still think the model forecasts for 3.4 to get well over 3.0 are crazy but I guess we’ll see.
  19. roardog
    So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite.
  20. roardog
    What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts
  21. roardog
    A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year.
  22. roardog
    My memory might be failing me but I think 1997 was the year of the November snowstorm bust here. We had a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches for the next day. By morning the warning was dropped and the forecast was for 1-3 inches. We never got a flake. It was all down toward you.
  23. roardog
    Yeah. All of that is going to happen plus fish will be living out of water and mosquitos will bite themselves. It’s going to be crazy!!
  24. roardog
    I think in 1896 they were placing the thermometers too close to the roads and would give false warm readings from horses walking by and farting. The climate records are all ruined!!!
  25. roardog
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