roardog

I always associated El Niño with a cool summer, a cold fall that turns mild in December and then can go either way after that depending on strength, location, etc. 2014 did that(at least over here), 2009 had the cold October after a very cool summer and 2006 seemed to follow the Nino script also. But the 15-16 Nino did not and they haven’t since.

I feel like the changes in the Pacific after the mid 2010s also took away the cooler summers.

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year.

At least this year snowman19 has something tangible to hang his hat on to get a warm winter. By last fall he had relegated to posting 3,127 tweets about high solar. lol

Not as accurate as the days of the bank clock.

Such a huge temp contrast across the sub this month. Through yesterday, we're only at +1.6 for the month here. It's been a real struggle to get any of that warmth this far northeast. There's actually still some patches of snow in the ditches from Winter.

Is a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?

Since I’ve never really paid too much attention to forecasts of WWB and Kelvin waves and that sort of thing, my question is, how accurate are those modeled forecasts going out a week plus normally?

He’s saying it caused the MJO to be in phases that you wouldn’t normally expect during a very strong Nino. This is kind of what people on here have been saying just in a different way.

You have to be searching for these types of tweets. There's no way you follow all of these people I've never heard of. lol

I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73.

That absurd heat in the plains and southwest combined with the well below normal temperatures in Canada is making for some crazy contrasts across the sub. It’s like March weather on steroids. It’s been a struggle to get any of the real warmth up here outside of brief intervals. Today was another one of those days where it stayed in the 30s all day. It might rise some more tonight but by morning we’ll be back to strong north winds and falling temps again.

Temps around normal and torch are two entirely different things unless you consider temps a couple of degrees above normal a torch.

Thanks for providing great information as to why a super Nino isn’t a slam dunk like twitter believes it to be.

I heard Jonger is going to start taking his snowmobile to Myrtle Beach to ride.

It would be a good day for a snowball fight.

How about Montana in the darker shade of blue? lol

I think our palm loving friend is wrong this time.

Hopefully it’s a slow spring melt.

Normal highs in Chicago are approaching 50 now and mid 40s in Milwaukee. You're acting like a 55 degree day in chicago is a big deal. There's still a giant pool of well below normal temperatures in Canada so there's potential for some nasty shallow cold on NE winds even if the upper heights aren't low or the 850 temps aren't that cold. If you were talking about St Louis or Kansas City then that's a different story.

I probably should have been more clear in my post. I was referencing the MJO impacting the developing Nino. The strong phase 7 and 8 in 2023 was looked at as an indication that the Nino could get very strong. This year it's in 7 and 8 again but weaker. I just thought it was interesting.

March 2023 had a very strong MJO is phases 7 and 8. This year it's also in phases 7 and 8, just much weaker. I wonder if that means anything.

There’s a lot of things that make a very strong Nino look likely but I can’t shake the fact that it’s only been 3 years since we’ve had one and the PDO is still negative. March isn’t over yet but right now the 30 day SOI is still extremely positive. As Chuck has shown, the very strong Ninos never have an extremely positive March SOI. I guess we’ll see.

I guess you better get your lawnmower ready for the first mow on the 4th of July this year.