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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.
  2. roardog
    The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.
  3. roardog
    New Cansips doesn’t really have a strong Nino pattern for winter at least not starting in January. It looks more like a late 70s cold weak Nino like pattern.
  4. roardog
    I know you believe a super Nino is coming. What is your forecast? Give a range of what you think the peak will be for fun. FYI. I read today that Bastardi thinks it will be a top 5 Nino. It looks like you’re agreeing with him.
  5. roardog
    I would think Nino 4 being so warm in recent Ninos results in different pattern outcomes as the forcing would be altered compared to your traditional cool Nino 4 strong El Niño. This is why I’m not sure a replica of 97-98 is necessarily on the way. That doesn’t mean it would be a good winter but I think just that fact alone is important unless of course it cools off by then.
  6. roardog
    Just having a big typhoon season would be a big change compared to recent years.
  7. roardog
    I still can’t believe we won’t flip to +PDO this year. It has to happen with this Nino.
  8. roardog
    Might be western U.S. smoke this year.
  9. roardog
    Since we’re going all in on a cool developing El Niño May we might as well get some snow to make it memorable.
  10. roardog
    I wonder what type of tweets the bias corrected Snowman19 would post. They would probably be more moderate to strong El Niño tweets instead of super. Its too bad we don’t have access to that.
  11. roardog
    One of the unusual aspects of this area is that the more urban areas actually develop and keep a snowpack longer because the buildings and houses stop the wind both from blowing it away and the wind from melting it during warmer periods. Of course the ditches will often be the one spot that has deep snow all winter. The snow lasted in the ditches this year until April.
  12. roardog
    It’s interesting how much longer a wooded or forested area can hold onto snowpack. Around here it’s all farm fields so any amount of wind combined with above freezing air will obliterate snow cover while the same conditions in the northern part of the state with all the trees will hold onto snow cover.
  13. roardog
    So what we're really saying here is that a weak to moderate El Nino will act like a La Nina while a strong or Super El Nino will act like a strong or super El Nino with a SE ridge. Sorry Mid Atlantic. lol
  14. roardog
    What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx.
  15. roardog
    I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do.
  16. roardog
    I always wonder what birds think after they hit a window. They probably think where did that come from?
  17. roardog
    Yeah. There was pure snow, actual snowflakes not pellets or graupel type stuff earlier today with mid 40s. It would drop to the 30s with the heavier bursts but was mid 40s at the start.
  18. roardog
    Sirens in general just seem like such an outdated way of warning the public about anything.
  19. roardog
    I feel like our indices, oscillations, etc are becoming more distorted as time goes on due to the warming oceans. The SOI for March was also quite positive so I guess that’s another sign of the atmosphere being off from the oceanic response.
  20. roardog
    I see the SOI has gone strongly positive in the last couple of days. I don’t know how long that’ll last though.
  21. roardog
    It’s not just 2023 though. Didn’t Nino years like 1976(or was it 1977) and 2002 do the same? I know 2002 had April heat and a very cool May. Obviously those years didn’t end up being strong Nino. I think it’s more of just a “Nino thing” regardless of eventual strength.
  22. roardog
    Oh no. That means if we get central based event this year it will reinforce the warm pool for the next 40 years. Snowman19 will be posting tweets from Andy Hazelton’s grandkids talking about a SE ridge in 2066.
  23. roardog
    There still seemed to be some Nina like influence that year though. December was mild like you would expect in a Nino but it came with Nina like tendencies which made the east very warm that month. 2014 seems like the last Nino that really had the classic summer to winter progression IMO.
  24. roardog
    I feel like a cool summer and fall would be an indication that this Nino could be more Nino like. A warm summer and or fall to me indicates there’s still some Nina/-PDO influence.
  25. roardog
    When you look at those piles in winter it always feels like it’ll take forever for them to melt but they do go fast once you get to this time of year. I bet even the ones in Grayling will be gone next week.
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