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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    I don’t know about that. The whole sub could be 30 inches above average in snow and 2 degrees above average in temps and we’ll still get CAD posts. lol
  2. roardog
    With the way the CPC “ forecast” works they might as well. The darkest red area of Texas was a 60-70% probability of being above average. That means there was a 30-40% probability of it not being above average. The northeast corner of the state had a 40-50% probability. So there was a higher chance it wouldn’t be above average. lol
  3. roardog
    I think Christmas 1982 has given everyone the misconception that a strong Nino is likely to have these outrageously warm high temperatures in the winter. The majority of the winter warmth usually comes from mild overnight lows due to the lack of arctic airmasses causing a lot of cloudy, mild overnight lows from constant pacific airmasses. You want a "super Nina" if you want those really warm daytime highs.
  4. roardog
    I think I would rather take my chances with a super nino than a pattern like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012. At least the super nino should have a ton of moisture streaming into the country.
  5. roardog
    There’s nothing wrong with what Snowman posts. It’s just he posts tweets saying basically the same thing by different people multiple times a day and week. It’s a little obnoxious IMO.
  6. roardog
    They can’t really ever be wrong with equal chances.
  7. roardog
    I think some people are just skeptical because the PDO is so outrageously negative for what is already a super Nino. I know it's still summer but this persistent very -PDO almost defies those same laws of physics and reality you talk about.
  8. roardog
    I thought I read somewhere once upon a time that a +AMO is more conducive to a -NAO. Although that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the last -AMO had a lot of -NAO periods in it.
  9. roardog
    It looked like you were at least going to get a decent rain over there. I guess that didn’t happen. We ended up with about .60 here last night. I wasn’t sure we were going to get anything so I’m happy with that.
  10. roardog
    I think you're the first poster here to comment on how they like fog. lol. Usually it's associated with boring weather.
  11. roardog
    That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.
  12. roardog
    Is the data on Cyclonicwx wrong? The ONI for region 4 has been hovering around 1.0 or a little above but here it’s showing RONI at 0.3. That’s a pretty big difference between ONI and RONI. I’m not saying that isn’t accurate because I don’t know. I’m just pointing it out.
  13. roardog
    If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall.
  14. roardog
    It looks like it’s staying close to 2012 to date but 2012 wasn’t at record low levels yet on this date in 2012. It fell off a cliff in August.
  15. roardog
    When I think of water skiing, I think of warm water. I can’t imagine the water was all that warm in late December. I vaguely remember that Christmas even though I was only 4 just because the weather was what everyone was talking about. The following Christmas was brutally cold I believe but I don’t remember anything about that one. lol
  16. roardog
    I feel like every time Bluewave makes a post about how the North American pattern doesn’t resemble a super Nino, snowman posts some tweets about how coupled the Nino is. It’s like some passive aggressive disagreement with Bluewave. lol
  17. roardog
    Isn’t that pretty much the case with everything humans do/have done?
  18. roardog
    Don’t they pretty much always do that? The last two winters defaulted to a Nina look. That didn’t turn out too well either.
  19. roardog
    I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.
  20. roardog
    How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?
  21. roardog
    I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog.
  22. roardog
    I’d rather have the January 2008 60s with severe weather.
  23. roardog
    You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish.
  24. roardog
    You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that.
  25. roardog
    That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.
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