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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    I’m not as educated on some of this enso stuff as a lot of you guys are so I didn’t say anything but I was thinking the same as you just said. I feel like 2023 didn’t have that but I could be wrong.
  2. roardog
    RONI is barely into Nino and we still have a -PDO. Maybe it’ll take a little time yet.
  3. roardog
    How high did the AAM get in 2023? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of a response across the North Pacific as we go deeper into June if the forecasts for the rising AAM verify.
  4. roardog
    Despite the twitter chatter about the atmosphere/ enso coupling, it sure doesn’t look like it in North America in early June if ensembles are correct. I wouldn’t be surprised if the MEI is still not very Nino.
  5. roardog
    Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year?
  6. roardog
    What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is.
  7. roardog
    This is what I’ve been saying but apparently twitter doesn’t agree according to snowman’s posts.
  8. roardog
    For all I know this could be the rate the water flushes out of my toilet. I don’t even know what I’m looking at.
  9. roardog
    I never said that. If you think all that warm water around Nino 4 compared to 1997 doesn’t make a big difference with forcing then I guess we’ll just disagree.
  10. roardog
    Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too.
  11. roardog
    On top of that, a model forecast for a strong +IOD in late summer and fall isn’t exactly a sure bet.
  12. roardog
    So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol
  13. roardog
    Are you talking about just strong Nino? 01-02 winter was pre Nino that wasn’t anything like this past winter. Neither was 96-97 and that obviously preceded a super Nino.
  14. roardog
    What does the month of June look like in those years?
  15. roardog
    Like Bluewave was saying, some aspects of the coming pattern are Nino like but not all. The SE ridge and coming heat over the eastern US is not. The warmth in Nino 4 is a problem and I’m guessing will cause non Nino forcing at times and MJO rotations at times in Non Nino phases. I said a couple of months ago that if we see a cool and wet summer and fall in the Great Lakes and eastern US then I’ll feel more confident of a typical strong/super Nino response come winter. Otherwise I’d be concerned about another “La Nino” which is probably actually worse for eastern winter lovers.
  16. roardog
    There’s no guarantee that any of that stuff happens as modeled. I think it’s increasingly likely we are headed toward another -PDO type El Niño IMO.
  17. roardog
    Even if heights are high over here, the low heights and cool in Ontario is going to mean lots of backdoor cold front risks.
  18. roardog
    Still waiting with my winter coat on for this transient cold shot to end.
  19. roardog
    Where’s the sun angle crowd? Accumulating snow with an early August equivalent sun angle. lol
  20. roardog
    Yeah. I’m not sure it’s showing a +PDO like he says.
  21. roardog
    When I was in school, usually the janitor/maintenance guy had access to them. Thank you. I'm here all week.
  22. roardog
    Transient. lol I guess transient means half the month or more.
  23. roardog
    Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.
  24. roardog
    The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.
  25. roardog
    New Cansips doesn’t really have a strong Nino pattern for winter at least not starting in January. It looks more like a late 70s cold weak Nino like pattern.
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