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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    I’d rather have the January 2008 60s with severe weather.
  2. roardog
    You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish.
  3. roardog
    You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that.
  4. roardog
    That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.
  5. roardog
    Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover.
  6. roardog
    There are a lot of metrics that are very impressive with this event. It’s also equally impressive how non Nino like the pattern over North America has been along with how strongly negative the PDO continues to be. A lot of interesting stuff happening right now for people like us to watch and discuss.
  7. roardog
    You wanted heat for your garden. Your vegetables will be coming pre-cooked.
  8. roardog
    For as inexpensive as a small window ac unit is, I would have one available to use even if i only needed for a handful of days a year just because I hate sleeping in a hot room. It’s not like I have to use my ac all summer here either but for those really warm nights, I would be miserable the next day if I didn’t have it. It seems like the older i get, the less tolerant I am of hot or cold. lol.
  9. roardog
    Back in the day when the NWS only had the zone forecasts, they would always say “ cooler near Lake Huron” over here in the spring and Summer when needed. However, I don’t ever recall a forecast that said warmer near Lake Huron in the Fall or Winter. There are a lot of times especially in the Fall when there could be gale force winds blowing at the shore with a temperature of 50F while it’s in the 30s with frost and calm winds 20 miles inland. Maybe they just figured the average person didn’t care about that? Just my thought for the day.
  10. roardog
    The warmest 850 temps are actually north of Chicago at the beginning of the week. I think this has potential to see some actual temperatures that are the highest we’ve seen in years for Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The funny part is there probably won’t be the media hype that we saw leading into the 4th of July since the dewpoints will be much lower leading to a lower heat index which leads to probably nothing worse than heat advisories. Of course everyone on this board knows that you need the lower dewpoints if you want higher actual temperatures.
  11. roardog
    I know you like the lake effect rain the 12Z Op GFS has for you today at 240 hours.
  12. roardog
    Maybe the lower dewpoint heat next week will actually bring some high temperatures that don’t underperform for a change.
  13. roardog
    That makes more sense.
  14. roardog
    If I’m looking at the BOM correctly, isn’t it already too warm for early July?
  15. roardog
    So is the anomaly drop in 1+2 on the CFS v2 for the rest of the summer really going to happen? Why would this happen? Everyone is talking about how crazy high the forecast for 3.4 is but if we think the model has a handle on things then 1+2 should be dropping soon.
  16. roardog
    You might be but I'm not sure your phone or keyboard is since you only show up when it's warm.
  17. roardog
    Yeah. Anywhere east of Lake Michigan has bust potential tomorrow. At the very least there will probably be some dying convection moving through for a cloudy period at some point. Tuesday and Wednesday SHOULD be legit heat but I’m never convinced until I wake up that day and see no convection or debris clouds around.
  18. roardog
    How cold was June 1876 if there was still ice in Duluth on June 28?
  19. roardog
    What we need is the designation of basin wide east based Nino. lol
  20. roardog
    It reminds me of the one the models all had earlier this month. The models and the forecast had several days in the mid 90s here just a few days before and we ended up in the low 80s with some of those days in the 70s. That was actually a huge heat bust. Let's see if this one comes to fruition.
  21. roardog
    I always thought a true Modoki or west based El Nino had 1+2 below Nino threshold or even negative. I recall discussion on that here sometime in the past when Bastardi would call any Nino with 1+2 having a lower anomaly than 4 a Modoki and people would say that is incorrect. So wouldn't the same apply to an east based Nino just opposite? 1997 at this time had a true east based Nino IMO with region 4 at 0.1. If having the entire Nino basin be above 0.5 isn't basin wide then I guess I don't even know what is.
  22. roardog
    Aren't all the nino regions currently above the .5 threshold?
  23. roardog
    Florida in July? Yuck.
  24. roardog
    I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess.
  25. roardog
    Now that we’re heading through June we can see the big divergence with 1997 is going to be Nino 4. This shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone but it’s still a big deal IMO.
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