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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    There’s been plenty of rain the last few years to keep the lawn mostly green but it’s not like it’s that unusual historically for a lawn around here to turn yellow and dry in the summer. This isn’t Scotland. lol
  2. roardog
    Yeah. I probably shouldn’t have even responded to him as it’s just derailing another thread. He’s either being a troll or intentionally obtuse.
  3. roardog
    This all started because you said the cool early in the month was transient. instead of admitting you were wrong, you go on some ridiculous tirade about how warm March and April were and how warm the western US was last winter. WTF does any of that have to do with this month having below normal temperatures?
  4. roardog
    These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5
  5. roardog
    2015-2016 had some big snowstorms here. Once upon a time there was a map posted here that showed that once you cross into super Nino threshold that we actually start to get above normal winter precip. The worst part of a Nino around here is the tendency for dryness. Even the weaker ones where we get below normal temperatures have a tendency to be dry. If super Nino can get us above normal precip, I would take that any day over a garbage non Nino winter like 01-02 or 11-12.
  6. roardog
    I know 1982 had the super warm Christmas but those real torchy high temperatures actually occur more in a Nina when the southern US is warm and the SE ridge bulges north. People wanting that outcome will probably be disappointed when the Nino delivers a barrage of days that are cloudy, windy and in the 30s.
  7. roardog
    Who cares about Philadelphia or what happened in Chicago in March and April? You said the cool early this month was transient and here it is May 26 and I’m running about 4 degrees below normal on the month. That isn’t exactly transient cool.
  8. roardog
    I’m not as educated on some of this enso stuff as a lot of you guys are so I didn’t say anything but I was thinking the same as you just said. I feel like 2023 didn’t have that but I could be wrong.
  9. roardog
    RONI is barely into Nino and we still have a -PDO. Maybe it’ll take a little time yet.
  10. roardog
    How high did the AAM get in 2023? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of a response across the North Pacific as we go deeper into June if the forecasts for the rising AAM verify.
  11. roardog
    Despite the twitter chatter about the atmosphere/ enso coupling, it sure doesn’t look like it in North America in early June if ensembles are correct. I wouldn’t be surprised if the MEI is still not very Nino.
  12. roardog
    Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year?
  13. roardog
    What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is.
  14. roardog
    This is what I’ve been saying but apparently twitter doesn’t agree according to snowman’s posts.
  15. roardog
    For all I know this could be the rate the water flushes out of my toilet. I don’t even know what I’m looking at.
  16. roardog
    I never said that. If you think all that warm water around Nino 4 compared to 1997 doesn’t make a big difference with forcing then I guess we’ll just disagree.
  17. roardog
    Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too.
  18. roardog
    On top of that, a model forecast for a strong +IOD in late summer and fall isn’t exactly a sure bet.
  19. roardog
    So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol
  20. roardog
    Are you talking about just strong Nino? 01-02 winter was pre Nino that wasn’t anything like this past winter. Neither was 96-97 and that obviously preceded a super Nino.
  21. roardog
    What does the month of June look like in those years?
  22. roardog
    Like Bluewave was saying, some aspects of the coming pattern are Nino like but not all. The SE ridge and coming heat over the eastern US is not. The warmth in Nino 4 is a problem and I’m guessing will cause non Nino forcing at times and MJO rotations at times in Non Nino phases. I said a couple of months ago that if we see a cool and wet summer and fall in the Great Lakes and eastern US then I’ll feel more confident of a typical strong/super Nino response come winter. Otherwise I’d be concerned about another “La Nino” which is probably actually worse for eastern winter lovers.
  23. roardog
    There’s no guarantee that any of that stuff happens as modeled. I think it’s increasingly likely we are headed toward another -PDO type El Niño IMO.
  24. roardog
    Even if heights are high over here, the low heights and cool in Ontario is going to mean lots of backdoor cold front risks.
  25. roardog
    Still waiting with my winter coat on for this transient cold shot to end.
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