Jump to content

Maestrobjwa

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,274

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. Maestrobjwa
    I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol Although it appeared to be a little closer to phasing this time...or I could be looking at it wrong. Not worth detailed analysis at this range anyway.
  2. Maestrobjwa
    To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there?
  3. Maestrobjwa
    Bob Chill adds "hmm" to the vocabulary list next to folks
  4. Maestrobjwa
    Believe it or not I actually wasn't sure about how chances tend to work heading into a block (hey maybe I can see a real time example in about 12-15 days )
  5. Maestrobjwa
    Mice are frustratingly intelligent, resourceful creatures It never ceased to amaze (and frustrate) me! Dang things even have different tastes in food
  6. Maestrobjwa
    That's also what I was wondering. I mean...would we want a slightly weaker block to avoid potential suppression?
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Feeling everything: Great for music, no so good for places like here
  8. Maestrobjwa
    Thank you for your input. And yeah I mean...I've felt the need to redeem myself for bad posts the last several years I've been here. And yeah I do get too defensive like you and @CAPE said. I'm a naturally sensitive person who feels everything--and that includes everything said to me (often focusing on the negative said), and I feel the need to "make it right". When I see 20 likes/thank yous on something said against me it feels like an indictment on me as a person, and I gotta defend it. But that's not helpful...maybe not reacting at all is still better even if it has me fuming for a minute. Right now I'd be ashamed to meet most of you in person, knowing my shortcomings on here and how I'd be seen. And you're right...that's probably why some of my posts come off as looking for acceptance--as I feel the need to make up for one thing and end up slipping into another mistake. As for why mention next winter...I don't know why I did again. I think that's just what I've been thinking in my subconscious about next winter, and it's kinda informed how I've viewed this winter...and it just leaked out. But I'm gonna aim to not fear post anymore. Like don't communicate any fears in the main thread...never ends well! I'm trying to be better on here, y'all...I'm not there yet
  9. Maestrobjwa
    I won't do that anymore. Didn't realize it would set all this off. I mean other people have mentioned it occasionally throughout the winter, so I didn't think it was out of bounds. It's been a lot of "best shot in 8 years" (and it is)...but I guess I shouldn't have said what has kinda been informing my view of needing this winter to work. But looking too far into what may or may not happen in the future is an issue I have in general. I'm like that with stuff and I have to work on it. .......Seems no matter how hard I try I can never get it right in here. Carry on, folks. Sorry for the distraction.
  10. Maestrobjwa
    Okay...I do that everywhere when I try to indicate not being serious--hard to communicate in text but I can work on that. So again though, how am I trying to hard?
  11. Maestrobjwa
    Yes--weather can still weather. Weather is chaotic and can do crazy things that can certainly deviate from expectation. That is something I've learned over time. Recency bias is real tho...5 ninas tracking here have made me pull my already thinning hair out *pull hair out emoji if we had one*
  12. Maestrobjwa
    Try too hard? In what way? I mean I know I get vigorously defensive when folks attack me, and I gotta work on that...but I'd like to know what you mean.
  13. Maestrobjwa
    That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically.
  14. Maestrobjwa
    But but wait a minute anything - C. is la nina right? And that's what climate prediction models have been saying, right??? That la nina is more likely at the moment. But according to @mattie g I thought I interpreted this incorrectly? As far as the other thing about not focusing on next year yet...noted. But don't sit up here and say I have no real knowledge--Uncalled for. Some of you have no mercy whatsoever. I am learning. P.S. This is a LONG range thread. Next year is still long range. So a passing mention isn't out of bounds. Like actually...nothing I said is out of bounds for this thread. I just made a statement about next year just as others have also stated about next year.
  15. Maestrobjwa
    La ninas aren't always brutal, but they have a low ceiling. Highest total in the cities was 18" the one year (17-18 I believe). That was reached by a lot of 1-2" nickle and dime events which is...okay. But of the 5 most recent ones...that was the ceiling. And they are a pain in the butt to track with all the NS dominance and interference, the Miller Bs, the se ridge, snow holes, and other annoyances. Contrast that with what you could get in a niño. Now, those can certainly fail too...but looking at them in general, the odds are just better here. If a niño doesn't go full-on torch a la 1997-98, you always have a chance!
  16. Maestrobjwa
    La nina isn't it? And descending solar, and another factor someone pointed out earlier..not great for snow chances. Haven't heard anything different...that's why I've been keying in on this winter hoping it delivers above average.
  17. Maestrobjwa
    This may be the somewhat rate instance where a 2010 comparison isn't JB-level analog hyping, lol
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Oh yes I know. Nothing in weather is guaranteed--one thing I've learned the hard way. Much chaos in weather outcomes! I don't think it's so much expecting something to definitely happen; more like seeing the best shot--and I'd argue the only legit one--we've had in 8 years and just reallllly hoping we don't miss, given how few chances we've had.
  19. Maestrobjwa
    Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.
  20. Maestrobjwa
    Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where a MECS happened this late?
  21. Maestrobjwa
    To climo? While I guess that would be something at least...I don't see how we get to the 30 inch forecasts of some playing that game. That's gonna require one of those shots to be a MECS. No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events). Would've felt more comfortable if this changed happened 1-2 weeks earlier, but you never know. While I still feel like we're kinda flirting with the last part of our usual window...thankfully it's still early...so we'll just have to patient until we get closer.
  22. Maestrobjwa
    So you'd say in this fantasy run that it looked that way? (That wave looked like sitting under that block for 3 days, lol) P.S. Not trying to overanalyze a fantasy run. I do like to use those to just a rough general idea of what scenarios could work and any consistent clues.
  23. Maestrobjwa
    The whole end of that run was lol But what's interesting is how guidance continues to want to eject an stj wave around the PD period...Interested to see if that continues this week.
  24. Maestrobjwa
    I will support you in this endeavor (there's gonna have to be some kind of penalty if you fall of the wagon though.t.like something you genuinely hate doing, lol
  25. Maestrobjwa
    Same thing I heard. Not sure what the other two are talking about...at not time was early Feb hyped to be a great period. I mean maybe somebody mentioned that a threat in the LR *might* have a chance...but it was never "This is when the pattern flips".
×
×
  • Create New...