Maestrobjwa

Now that too would be the second time in 3 years...have we ever seen 2 raging +AO seasons in such a short span?

And to think we just had a 1.8" winter 3 years ago...if that happens again do soon that would be so bad all you could do is laugh at it, lol

Well technically for OUR peak climo that's just at the start of it. I always view our peak window from mid-Jan through President's Day.

The more seasons I track the more that rings true, lol (What was the configuration of the jet last week?)

Ah...And I'm guessing with last week's cutter it wasn't extended enough? Lol

Is counting on a pac jet relaxing in a nina something to bet on? (or am I confusing that with the -PNA?)

That's kinda how 2017/18 went...MJO and ens staring while we nickle and dimed our way to 18", lol Honestly I've started tuning out the MJO and strat discussion...because that usually means the pattern ain't great! P.S. Ya really think something pops up in the mid range during a torch? Or were you just talking in general?

It's would be even more horrendous if this year were to follow the trend psu mentioned and end up in the single digits...because that would mean 5 of the last 10 seasons were single digits! Yeah we gotta break the trend this year somehow! But if not this year...the mod niño is our last snow hope, lol

Today there seems to be just one poster in particular instigating the discourse (and he won't quit either. I get the feeling this goes beyond just snow to the whole subject of warming in general)

Yeah it's kind of a virtual tick I have...(kinda like my parentheses...lol Dang it!)

Man what? Forgive me for not having a photographic memory to remember every snow total over last decade from an area that's not even mine, and somehow pick out all said totals by memory from 1000s of post. Shame on me! All I remember is your 30-something inches last year. Stray snark detected...lol

I'd like to see your snowfall numbers for the last decade...I'm curious, lol

I'm sure there's some denial here...and I totally get it. Nobody here likes to see these stats....but I mean, you can't dispute the incremental drop in average. Like I said, we had 3 consecutive decades have 4 single digit snow seasons...I mean that's the simplest way to see it. I mean yeah it's depressing, but what can ya do? All the more reason to enjoy the heck out of the big ones (and DON'T complain when we get them)

For us Baltimore folks...do ya have one for BWI?

Even without doing any math...all ya gotta do is eyeball the snow totals from 1940 onward. Prior to the 90s, you'd never see anymore than 1 or 2 single digit snowfalls at BWI in a decade. But then ya get to the 90s...you have 4. The 00s you had 4. And the 2010s you had 4! So yeah...feels like we've been suffering from this for awhile...with a memory skewed by the big snows, lol

Not sure if this means much coming from me, but what I'm learning is...Not a good idea to looking for any specific "trends" on a specific threat this far out. Way, way too early for discreet threats...For those, the 5 day rule really is better (see last week, lol).

From the NE board...facts, lolol

Hahaha Fair, lol Nah you good

And that -PNA....The more neutral/slightly positive look being shown on guidance a couple weeks ago never really verified, did it?

Yeah that one in Feb 2021 was just dumbdy-dumb. Split the dang thing south into Texas instead of over us (would've made all the difference that season!)

To balance out that shrink-worthy post...thoughts on this? (This is actually very informative for those of us who want to understand the PV better) https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/ Now I know looking to a SSW is a bit of a desperation move...but I'm wondering if anyone can recall any instances where one of these actually helped us? Lol

Oh I don't know, maybe because the snow drought has been awful, and a reminder of something that may indicate yet another year of the awful is depressing, and maybe I ain't made peace with that or the snow drought yet? Already knowing it's awful don't make it any easier to take. Sometimes not thinking/being reminded of it on a special day with lots of joy is better than thinking about it and immediately having the mood dampened. Yeah I had nice service earlier where I played, had a nice dinner, a few presents...peaceful evening. But in comes those numbers and a reminder "Oh that's right we're in a depressing snow drought and it ain't lookin' good this year either"...and suddenly that colors everything. Better not to hear about it, for real.

Tbh I ain't even remember asking for that specifically. But dang it man not today...You like lookin' up depressing stuff on Christmas Day? Like I said I stayed off of here most of the day to avoid negativity, tbh Why anybody is looking up negative snow stats on Christmas Day is beyond me.

I mean even Christmas day he gotta bring this stuff up, man...a rest for one day would be nice. I didn't even wanna come on here to say Merry Christmas because I did not want the negativity. Now that it's after midnight I poke my head in and the first thing I see? That, lol

Today (Christmas Eve) I celebrated my birthday with my folks. Said celebration included... HA! Take that anti-carrites Merry Christmas everyone!